STANLIB Podcasts

The South African Reserve Bank has cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 7.25%, citing slowing economic growth, says STANLIB Chief Economist Kevin Lings. The bank revised down its estimates of growth and inflation for this year and may announce a new lower inflation target of 2-4%, in line with emerging markets, in October. Another 25 bps rate cut could occur later this year, given current trends. After...

SA’s inflation rate for April, at 2.8%, is fairly subdued, partly because prices of goods being imported from China are in deflation. A cut of 25 bps by the SARB later this week would be justified, given both low inflation and low growth forecasts, and would provide welcome stimulus for the economy in the second half. The US tax bill proposed by President Trump would deliver fiscal stimulus to the...

In this podcast, Sylvester Kobo, STANLIB’s Deputy Head of Fixed Income, discusses the implications of the third iteration of the 2025 Budget on the bond market. He highlights how the Budget could affect fixed income investments, particularly in light of lower GDP growth and inflation forecasts. Discover why the bond market reacted with slight weakness and what it means for future investment strate...

Budget 3.0 was in line with expectations, although the small increase in the fuel levy was an unwelcome surprise, says STANLIB Chief Economist, Kevin Lings in this podcast. After discussing some of the detail in the numbers, Kevin warns that the South African government’s fiscal position will remain under pressure until the country is able to lift its GDP growth rate above 3%. Any commentary or fo...

US inflation and consumer sales data for April showed no signs of tariff pressures. US inflation was 2.3%, just above the 2% target, but over the next 12 months tariff hikes will push it up by 1-1.5%, as well as cause a slowdown in growth and higher unemployment levels. In SA, the Q1 2025 unemployment rate climbed to almost 33%, which was disappointing, although partly seasonal. In Budget 3.0 this...

The US has agreed to cut US import tariffs on products from the UK from the previously proposed level, with certain exclusions, in a deal that is likely to set the tone for other US negotiations. This will help to ease concerns about US inflation. Meanwhile, in SA, manufacturing data for March was down a disappointing 0.8% year on year, despite more stable electricity supply. Weakness in the manuf...

In this podcast, Wehmeyer Ferreira, COO of STANLIB’s Outcomes Franchises, chats to Amit Parmar, investment specialist in J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s International Equity Group, about how the Global Select Fund has adjusted its positioning. They also discuss some of the opportunities the teams have identified amid the upheavals. Any commentary or forecasts indicated in this document are for info...

US GDP dropped by -0.3% q/q in the first quarter of 2025, raising fears the economy is heading for a recession. The main reason was a 50% q/q increase in US imports in anticipation of tariff increases. However, it will take a couple of months before the impact of tariffs and consumers’ reaction to them will become fully evident. Latest US employment data, a critical gauge of the performance of the...

STANLIB’s Head of Systematic Solutions Rademeyer Vermaak describes Q1 as “wild”. It showed the impossibility of predicting what politicians will do – in both the US and SA. He explains what drove SA equity prices and how the managers of STANLIB Enhanced Multi Style Fund, which is a long-term fund, respond to short-term upheavals and neutralise risk. Rademeyer also spells out why the fund has taken...

In Q1, positive news on domestic inflation and progress on Treasury’s fiscal consolidation plans were countered by disagreements around the South African Budget and tariff announcements from the US, says STANLIB’s Deputy Head of Fixed Income, Sylvester Kobo. As a result, bond yields drifted higher through the quarter. Sylvester analyses the positioning of the Flexible Income Fund amid the heighten...

Events in SA, the US and Europe in Q1 were seismic for markets, says Marius Oberholzer, STANLIB’s Head of Multi Asset. The team has become progressively more cautious than it was at the beginning of the year. During the quarter it reduced the positions in global equities and domestic fixed income and removed all rand currency hedges. Marius discusses the team’s view on gold and gold equities, regi...

US inflation for March surprised on the downside, with core CPI below 3%, says STANLIB Chief Economist, Kevin Lings. However, the longer that steep tariffs remain in place between the US and China, the likelier it is that stagflation will follow. More significantly, latest surveys show US business and consumer confidence has fallen steeply, indicating that the tariff situation needs to be resolved...

In this week’s podcast, STANLIB’s Chief Economist Kevin Lings touches on the disagreement within the Government of National Unity (GNU) on the Fiscal Framework, where the ANC seems to have won power and the DA lost power. However, discussions are still under way. In more depth, Kevin discusses the reciprocal tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump and the significant amount of economic pain...

In this short podcast, STANLIB’s Chief Economist, Kevin Lings, explores the implications of the passing of the controversial 2025 Budget in the National Assembly by the ANC in alliance with smaller parties, excluding the DA. This is very likely to lead to a 0.5% increase in VAT in 2025 and again in 2026, but it also has longer-term consequences for SA’s political and financial landscape.

In this podcast, STANLIB Chief Economist Kevin Lings unpacks the reasons for the higher tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump, and their possible impacts. Those impacts are likely to include higher inflationary pressure, especially in the US, and a widespread slowdown in economic activity, though it is too soon to be definitive. Any commentary or forecasts indicated in this document are f...

In this week’s podcast, STANLIB’s Chief Economist Kevin Lings discusses increasing nervousness in US financial markets about stagflation as a result of President Trump’s tariff moves. Inflation looks likely to remain above the US Federal Reserve’s target for some time, while forward-looking indicators on manufacturing and tourism suggest a slowing of activity. Click here to listen to the podcast.

Listen to Wehmeyer Ferreira (COO, Systematic Solutions) and Rademeyer Vermaak (Head of Systematic Solutions) as they discuss how the top-performing STANLIB Enhanced Multi Style Equity Fund and the STANLIB Equity Fund are positioned for success in the coming months. Any commentary or forecasts indicated in this document are for information purposes only and not guaranteed to occur. Additional infor...

Despite a subdued domestic inflation rate of 3.2% y/y in February, well below market expectations, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) did not cut the policy interest rate, STANLIB Chief Economist Kevin Lings says. This decision probably reflected the SARB’s desire to bring inflation down sustainably to 3% and nervousness about global developments. The US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s decision to hold...

In this podcast, STANLIB Chief Economist Kevin Lings says US consumer price inflation (CPI) data for February, released last week, was a positive surprise. It showed even shelter inflation is on a downward trajectory. However, the data does not take recently-announced tariff increases into account. On 2 April the Trump administration is expected to implement the tariff increases it has deferred. U...

Tarryn Sankar, STANLIB Fixed Income Head of Credit and Investment Research, highlights three welcome measures in the Budget. First, there will be no new support for SOEs; instead, the focus is on direct support for infrastructure projects. Secondly, innovative funding mechanisms for infrastructure are prioritised and, encouragingly, consolidation of functions could materially shift the quality and...

Sylvester Kobo, STANLIB Deputy Head of Fixed Income, explains the VAT hikes of 0.5 percentage points proposed over each of the next two years will yield government about R43 billion in additional revenue, falling short of government needs. Other revenue measures will not cover the shortfall, but the government plans to use cash reserves rather than raise new debt. Bonds and the rand reacted positi...

STANLIB Chief Economist Kevin Lings says that although the Minister proposes a smaller-than-expected VAT increase, he has sought additional revenue elsewhere by removing an adjustment for fiscal drag and implementing smaller increases in social grants. Hopefully, opposition to the VAT increase from the DA will be resolved by 2 April. Kevin says the biggest disappointment in the Budget is the weak...

In this podcast, STANLIB Chief Economist Kevin Lings notes that SA’s economy grew by a disappointing 0.6% q/q in Q4 2024, and by merely 0.9% on an annual basis. This continues a long-term trend: over the last 10 years, the country’s GDP growth has averaged 0.8% a year. Turning this weak performance around requires policies that stimulate growth and encourage more private sector involvement. Moving...

In January 2025, SA inflation increased slightly to 3.2%, which is at the lower end of the Reserve Bank target and at levels that have been under control for some time. Inflation is expected to track higher from mid-year, possibly to 4.7% by the end of December. This means the Reserve Bank can easily keep rates on hold with a slight bias to the downside. With US President Donald Trump’s announceme...

South African retail sales reflected a phenomenal last quarter of 2024 as consumer spending was boosted by two pot pension withdrawals. Sales in the last quarter increased by 5.4% year-on-year in real terms, indicating spending as if there was a 5% to 6% increase in the economy. These sales numbers will help to boost the economy in 2024, but this still leaves the 2024 GDP outcome at this stage at...