Standard Chartered Money Insights

While we still expect broad USD weakness over the next 6-12 months, the near-term outlook may be more challenging as expectations of the Fed tapering and transitory US inflation argue for a temporary period of USD consolidation. We still advocate averaging into short USD positions at key technical levels and see buying EUR/USD on the dip at around 1.1700 as an attractive proposition.  Speaker: DJ...

The strong burst of stimulus-led equity market performance is likely to give way to a more sustainable pace of gains in H2 2021 and beyond as the US economic recovery wave radiates to other parts of the global economy. Equities and higher yielding corporate and Emerging Market USD bonds remain preferred in this environment. Speakers: Steve Brice, Chief Investment Officer, Standard Chartered Bank M...

To drive the momentum in mainstreaming ESG, understanding ESG factors and what goes into ESG ratings is important for investors. With a wealth of ESG information from various ESG rating agencies, how can investors decipher what are the meaningful ESG metrics and how to use them? We will delve deeper into how an asset manager uses its ESG ratings and also address the rise in ESG ETFs with the use o...

The USD got a lift off a more confident Fed, following the central bank's upgrade to its growth and inflation forecasts and its decision to bring forward rate hike expectations to 2023. The upcoming trading sessions will likely provide confirmation of whether the USD will continue its cyclical downtrend quickly or settle into a period of consolidation over the next few weeks. Our medium-term...

The Fed’s upgrade of US growth and inflation estimates and bringing forward of rate hike expectations to 2023 signals its growing confidence in the outlook for the economy. We believe a sustained economic recovery, a transitory bout of inflation and a still-accommodative Fed well into 2023 support our view that stocks will continue to outperform bonds and cash over the next 6-12 months. Speakers: ...

The JPY has been an underperformer within G10 FX amid solid reflationary forces and the market returning to using JPY as a funding currency. We list several catalysts that could lead to a JPY rebound against the USD over the coming months. These include supportive capital inflows into Japan and elevated short JPY positioning. Speaker: DJ Cheong, Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank

US stocks rose and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell below a crucial support even after US inflation jumped to a 13-year high of 5%. The market reaction supports our view that the current bout of inflation is transitory and that the Fed is unlikely to start unwinding its unprecedented monetary stimulus soon.  Given this, we stick with our pro-risk stance, based on our outlook for strong ec...

We continue to favour the GBP as the UK gradually reopens its economy while UK political uncertainty recedes. A more hawkish Bank of England (BoE), as well as renewed capital inflows into the UK are also reasons why we expect the GBP to register further gains against the USD. Speaker: DJ Cheong, Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank

The chips are falling into place for Euro area and UK stocks to outperform the rest of the world and the EUR and GBP to rise further in the next 6-12 months. Our increased conviction is based on the accelerated pace of vaccinations, which should enable the region’s economies to normalise quicker than previously expected. We believe the improved prospects are not yet priced into asset valuations or...

Today, governments, businesses, and investors increasingly equate the Paris alignment with achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.  As the global energy system is responsible for 70% of emissions today, it is at the heart of addressing climate change and its transition is only at the start of a multi-decade journey. The brings forth big questions on the future of energy -  where do we stand, where d...

Water is the foundation of all economic and social development, critical for everyday use, and especially vital in industrial production and the agricultural sector. Water as a resource is both abundant and scarce, and the demand is ever increasing. We will delve deeper into understanding the water crisis, the investment opportunities, and how it enhances investment portfolios. Speakers: Marco Iac...

The NZD or “Kiwi” looks well supported by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The central bank is likely to be one of the first movers within Developed Markets to start normalising monetary policy – given New Zealand’s well-documented COVID-19 recovery so far. Terms of trade should also prop up New Zealand exports and act as a tailwind for the NZD. We would favour a ‘buy-on-dips’ approach for NZD/USD...

Recent data have reignited inflation worries, but we expect the rise in inflation to be short-lived given still-wide gaps to full employment in major economies. We maintain our preference for global equities and Emerging Market and High Yield corporate bonds, noting they have historically performed well in both rising and falling inflation scenarios as long as global growth is rising. Speakers: St...

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), also called “People’s Goals”, are 17 goals that are designed to represent a universal blueprint for all countries and actors to come together to achieve a more sustainable future. We will delve deeper into what these SDGs are and how these can help investors looking to make an impact on their investments.  Speakers: Eugenia Koh, Head, Sustai...

We are watching the recovery of GBP/SGD from its post-Brexit lows closely – especially the prospect of GBP gains accelerating from a technical perspective.  We expect any downside technical corrections in GBP/SGD to be shallow and hold above 1.85. Speaker: DJ Cheong, Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank

The 35% plunge in Bitcoin prices since their April peak and this week’s volatility sends a stark message to investors – not to put core investments at risk by chasing the latest mania. While we do not expect Bitcoin’s latest bout of volatility to have a contagion effect on other assets, these episodes are a reminder of the benefits of a diversified asset allocation. We remain pro-risk on a 6-12 mo...

The mainstreaming of ESG is inevitable, with the European counterparts ahead of the game with a head start, and Asia playing catch up. Government regulations and Covid-19 has changed investor focus and attitudes in Asia, and the growth and momentum will continue. We will delve deeper into changing landscape in Asia and what investors starting out in sustainable investing can consider.  Speakers: E...

As the debate around the return of inflation rages, we see near-term price pressures and talk of a gradual unwind in monetary policy stimulus in several Developed Markets as an affirmation of improving underlying fundamentals. Therefore, we would use pullbacks to add exposure to commodity-linked currencies such as the AUD and CAD. Speaker: DJ Cheong, Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank

A surge in US inflation jolted markets this week on concerns it could force the Fed to tighten policy sooner than expected. We lay out reasons why we believe the inflation spike is likely to be temporary, caused by short-term distortions in the labour market and supply bottlenecks. Since fundamentals continue to improve, we would use any dislocation in markets to build on our medium-term investmen...

The last week has proven to be a relatively lively period for the GBP following the conclusion of the Bank of England policy meeting and the Scottish elections. A ‘buy-on-dips’ approach is still attractive for GBP/USD, in our view, given we expect an increasingly less dovish BoE and continued rapid re-opening of the UK’s economy.  Speakers: DJ Cheong, Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank

US corporate earnings have once again delivered a resoundingly positive surprise. European earnings have also significantly beaten expectations. Bull markets are usually sustained by repeated earnings beats of this magnitude. While some equity market technical indicators are stretched, we remain buyers on dips. Speakers: Steve Brice, Chief Investment Officer, Standard Chartered Bank Marco Iachini,...

Numbers don’t lie, and numbers will help with painting a better picture of the scale and urgency of the climate change issue we are dealing with. Governments around the world and companies have made net zero announcements, and large amounts of investment capital is needed to fight climate change. We will delve deeper into what some of the commonly heard terms and numbers mean. Speakers: Eugenia Ko...

In today’s episode, we will focus on the pound sterling. In the UK, sentiment has improved, lockdowns have eased and the vaccination rate has continued to be one of the fastest globally, though Scottish elections are a risk. We believe this sets the stage for the UK economy to advance and for the pound to move higher in the next stage of its advance. Listen to our podcast to learn more on how we w...

Climate change issues have increasingly become front and centre globally, and 2021 could be a turning point for tackling climate change issues. There have been supportive big-picture trends such as the European Green Deal and a Democratic U.S. president in Joe Biden who has ambitious plans to fight climate change. We will delve deeper into what are the investment opportunities here and how that re...

Expectations for a global economic and earnings recovery remain relentlessly positive, despite an increasingly tightening policy bias in China and the risk of higher US taxes. We favour equities over bonds. US equities remain most likely to outperform other regions amid supportive policy, in our view. Asia ex-Japan faces headwinds from China’s tightening liquidity and a surge in COVID-19 cases in...