Standard Chartered Money Insights

The upcoming week promises to be eventful. As incoming data on the Omicron variant points to less severe illness and enhanced protection through COVID vaccine booster shots, the focus shifts to key central bank meetings that are likely to set the policy direction for 2022. The US, Euro area and UK central banks are due to decide on whether to continue prioritising economic growth in the face of su...

We believe the AUD could be approaching an inflexion point as the currency is starting to look cheap on several measures. Watch this space closely! Speaker: - DJ Cheong, Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go .

Omicron has led investors to reassess their risk appetite. Latest reports indicate the new COVID variant is more transmissible and less severe than those from previous waves, but the impact on vaccine efficacy and hospitalisations remains unclear. This raises near-term uncertainty. As investors, we have been here before. Despite several virus waves, the global stock market index has almost doubled...

Short JPY positioning has been stretched for a while now as most of the recent short bets within the G10 FX space have been concentrated here. Find out more for what this means for investors if risk sentiment remains fragile. Speaker: - DJ Cheong, Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go .

The US dollar has broken higher. What message is this leading indicator of global markets sending? There are three likely explanations for the dollar’s breakout, each with the potential to frame the market narrative in the coming months. First, Jerome Powell’s renomination, against the backdrop of rising inflation expectations, sends a modestly hawkish message to markets. Second, the revival of th...

In today’s episode, DJ shares his views on whether Fed Chair Powell's re-nomination means it’s policy status quo for the Fed and whether this implies further USD strength in the weeks ahead. Speaker: - DJ Cheong, Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go .

The bull market in risk assets just crossed a major milestone – global equities, as measured by the MSCI All Country World index, has doubled since the pandemic low. The question now confronting investors: what will sustain the rally?  We believe the fuel that has powered the bull so far – strong economic and corporate earnings growth, driven by above-trend consumer demand and easy financial condi...

The precious metal has recently staged a technical breakout on the back of solid US CPI figures. Have the fundamentals changed, and should investors latch on to the recent rally? Speaker: - DJ Cheong, Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go .

The breakout of US inflation to a 30-year high and broadening of price pressures globally have challenged the central bank narrative that inflation is transitory. Nevertheless, several central banks, led by the Fed and BoE, have made it clear in recent weeks that their priority remains healing job markets, rather than fighting near-term inflation pressures. The decidedly dovish near-term monetary...

Central banks are shifting away from ultra-easy monetary policies, but they have mostly pushed back against expectations for higher interest rates next year. In light of that, today’s episode will span a broad review of what central banks did last week, and how it feeds into currency markets. Speaker: - DJ Cheong, Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank For more of our latest market insight...

The Fed’s decision to start tapering bond purchases from this month has been received well by investors. Global stocks hit a new record high and Treasury yields and the USD remained range-bound as investors continued to focus on strong corporate earnings beats. We expect easy financial conditions to prevail and growth and earnings to continue surprising positively over the next 6-12 months, helpin...

We believe it is still attractive to buy the AUD on dips as terms of trade remain supportive for the AUD. However, the currency needs to first work its way out of overbought territory. Speaker: - DJ Cheong, Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go .

After a decade-long lull, markets have started to price in higher inflation expectations. However, we believe the growth outlook will be a more important driver of equities over the next 12 months as inflation gradually abates. We prefer equities over bonds and cash, but an allocation to gold can help mitigate any inflation surprises along the way. Speakers: - Marco Iachini, Cross-Asset Strategist...

There may be a tactical opportunity to fade recent GBP strength ahead of the upcoming Bank of England (BoE) meeting. Timing is key, though, given the presence of month-end flows, which could distort price action. Speaker: - DJ Cheong, Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go .

The Q3 corporate earnings season is promising to be a strong driver of our two preferred equity markets – the US and Euro area. US companies are once again exceeding earnings and revenue estimates, leading to upgrades to future earnings expectations. Positive earnings growth surprises typically lead to sustained stock market outperformance, especially if monetary policy is supportive. Speakers: -...

We believe the risk-reward of chasing the USD higher from here is poor. For USD/JPY, though, oil prices are a risk. Speaker: - DJ Cheong, Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go .

The stars are aligning for the Fed to start tapering bond purchases this year, though tapering and rate hikes have historically not stood in the way of equity market gains till monetary policy becomes outright tight. We continue to favour US and Euro area equities. In China, though, the focus remains on property sector stress. We continue to believe a broader crisis is unlikely, but a catalyst in...

Both the CAD and JPY exhibit interesting technical breakouts in recent days, albeit in opposite directions. In this podcast, we discuss whether the moves are consistent with fundamentals and whether the moves represent an investment opportunity. Speaker: - Manpreet Gill, Head of Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) Investment Strategy, Standard Chartered Bank For more of our latest market...

There is a building narrative that the world may be shifting from a reflation to a stagflation regime. While it is likely that global growth will slow as emergency stimuli are unwound and that inflation will stay elevated for longer due to supply constraints, we believe key indicators are not pointing to a stagflation outlook. As such, we would use any market dislocation to add exposure to risk as...

Australia’s RBA and New Zealand’s RBNZ hold key policy meetings this week. The AUD could be set to outperform as we see greater room for a currency-supportive policy surprise. Speaker: - Manpreet Gill, Head of Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) Investment Strategy, Standard Chartered Bank For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go .

Central bank bond purchase tapering and rising expectations of policy rate hikes across developed economies are signs of growing confidence in the economic recovery. Global equities and riskier bonds are likely to remain well-supported on a 6-12-month horizon in this environment as inflation-adjusted interest rates stay low, or negative. We retain a preference for US and Euro area equities. Speake...

German election results are in, and it appears the base-case scenario of a left-leaning coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP is playing out. In this episode, DJ Cheong highlights what this means for the EUR in the near and medium-term. Speaker: - DJ Cheong, Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go .

Markets have heaved a sigh of relief after the Fed upgraded its growth forecasts and appeared confident in unwinding its record stimulus. In Europe, polls are increasingly pointing to a coalition between the socialist SPD, the Greens and the liberal FDP after the 26 September elections, which could lead to more fiscal stimulus. These developments support our positive outlook for US and Euro area e...

Markets appear to have come to the realisation that we could see some Fed hawkishness at the upcoming FOMC meeting. In this episode, DJ Cheong lists some scenarios to expect and explains how investors should be positioned ahead of this key event. Speaker: - DJ Cheong, Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go .

The coming week is an eventful one for investors. The Fed policymakers’ interest rate forecasts through to 2024 will show whether they are turning more hawkish. Also, in focus is China’s measures to contain any fallout from debt challenges at its second-largest property developer. Finally, the German election on 26 September portends to alter the policy space in Europe. Each of these events offers...