Sound Economies with Mel & Peter

This episode, we compare the record-high listings at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the muted IPO activity at the London bourse, and offer some explanations for the wide disparity between the two. We also talk about a unique 'banquet ban' in China, the muted market reaction to Trump's latest tariff threats, and the sunshine that awaits investors beyond the summer holiday.

More Asian brands are boldly expanding in the US alongside record debt issuances across emerging markets in the first half of 2025. We think these are clear signs that investors are dumping US assets in search for better margins. In this episode, we also talk about the declining US dollar and the reduction of stock trading taxes in the Philippines.

There's a slowdown of listing activity in Asia Pacific for the first half of 2025 amid heightened market uncertainty, but we believe that IPO-ready companies should proceed with their plans. For this week's podcast episode, we also look at China requiring auto makers to use domestic microchips in their cars by 2027, US Fed chair Jerome Powell turning down prospects of a July rate cut, and...

The oil price spike over the past week was a knee-jerk reaction of the market to the escalation of attacks between Iran and Israel, but we think that most of it is speculative. We explain why we think the rising tensions will not be inflationary given an oil production surplus. We also talk about the Chinese stock market's lone decline, and adjustments to broaden Malaysia's tax base.

Although US and China has finally agreed to scale down the tariff war, China-focused investors are setting their eyes on domestic concerns over global trade shifts. We also talk about China's sovereign fund interfering in the stock market, a proposal to revoke duty-free shopping for foreign tourists in Japan, and US asset manager Blackstone's plan to invest $500 billion in Europe.

The OECD has pointed to increasing nervousness towards US assets as it cut global growth forecasts thanks to the tariff war. This matches our tempered house view towards US investments, which we think are less attractive now. We also talk about the US dollar's depreciation, China's possible intervention in a BYD-waged price war in the EV space, and Indonesia's cash stimulus program.

The European Central Bank painted a grim picture as it warned that credit spreads are out of sync with market risks, but we disagree. We explain more in this episode where we also look at a mega-meeting of central bankers in Tokyo, a plan of ASEAN member-states to negotiate tariffs with the US as a bloc, and China's plan to trim fees charged by e-commerce giants on platform sellers.

The US losing its top-grade credit rating did not come as a surprise, but concerns are mounting as Trump's tax reform bill will pad the already mounting federal debt. In this episode, we also talk about Japan's economy, which is hit hard by tariffs despite not being Trump's main target. Meanwhile, a widely popular plush toy brand from Beijing has proven to be tariff-resilient globally.

US and China delivered a pleasant surprise by agreeing to sharp tariff reductions. We explain why Chinese stocks didn't rally as much as US indices in this episode. We also tackle disappointing pronouncements from new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the deepening India-Pakistan conflict. Meanwhile, we evaluate the strong investor appetite towards a Chinese EV battery maker's public li...

New deals are seeking to reshape global trade, some more impactful than the rest. The spotlight is on the UK for this episode as it makes good progress on trade agreements with India and the US. We also talk about key takeaways from our 7 May webinar on Chinese equities, the US Fed's prolonged pause on interest rate cuts, and the unexpected decision of the OPEC+ to increase oil production.

In this episode, we celebrate the recent achievement of our Lundgreen's Invest - China Fund and share how we manage our Lipper Award-winning Chinese equity portfolio. We look to Southeast Asia as it expands tourism revenues through digital nomad visas. We also comment on the standstill tariff negotiations with the US, and significant reductions in cargo shipped from China to the West Coast as a vi...

The International Monetary Fund sees weaker global growth and rising inflation, the latter a more pronounced problem in the US than elsewhere. In our 30th episode, we discuss how the Fed is facing tougher times in setting policy rates, a wave of patriotism buoying Chinese markets up, and the future of economic sanctions on Russia with ceasefire talks on the table.

We find that the world is changing at an unprecedented pace as Trump's tariffs creating a "homemade" crisis for the American economy. Join us as we dissect the impact of Trump's mega tariffs ahead of its 9 April enforcement, which has sent stock values tumbling, global brands pausing sales in the US, and China, Japan, and South Korea in reviving trade deal talks.

After a strong two-year run, we changed our risk allocation for US stocks from overweight to neutral in light of mounting uncertainties about the American economy, exacerbated by Trump's new tariffs, and greatly prefer the inclusion of more alternative investments in portfolios. We also look at Indonesia's new sovereign wealth fund and the $72-billion capital infusion of Chinese state-owne...

Are global investors reconsidering China? We discuss in this episode the attendance of several foreign business leaders in a weekend development forum in Beijing, as well as a fear of an "AI bubble" in the US. Meanwhile, more investment houses grow less upbeat towards US stocks, however, greater attention is given to alternative investment options -- mainly on privately held and high-growth compan...

Indonesia's stock market crashed on 18 March over fears that the country's fiscal house is in disarray under new spending priorities of the government. Meanwhile, Brazil revealed a plan to increase income tax exemptions while imposing a 10% tax on dividends from abroad, both aimed to raise additional revenues while boosting consumption. We compare these approaches to stimulate GDP growth w...

In this episode, we challenge our sunshiny outlook on the global markets -- are we seeing more clouds on the horizon, and is this enough to change our investment allocations? We look at Germany's lack of progress on economic reforms, negative business sentiment in Japan's manufacturing sector, and the correction of US stocks after a tech-driven rally.

The Federal Reserve appears to be facing greater pressure to cut interest rates as growth prospects will likely be dampened by Trump's intensifying tariff war. In this episode, we look at the path of US interest rates as well as yields on Japanese and German bonds. We also go into depth as to why Germany's plan to invest more in defence and infrastructure would do little to lift long-term ...

We see two divergent tales of consumer sentiment in the US and China: there are encouraging stories from Beijing and signs of general dissatisfaction from Washington. In this episode, we also discuss the results of Germany's snap elections and the weak political environment it creates, as well as Trump's non-tariff restrictions on Chinese investments.

Rising inflation is now a bigger concern of mature and developing economies. Our view is that major central banks will keep interest rates on hold amid inflation woes, particularly in Europe. We also discuss rice supply problems in Japan and the Philippines, President Xi's recent meeting with Chinese tech executives, and the path of the US dollar in this episode.

The tech sector is driving another stock market rally -- only this time, Chinese developers are leading the way. We discuss how DeepSeek is powering a bull market for Chinese tech stocks and heating up the EV arm's race between BYD and Tesla. In this episode, we also look at Thailand opening up to global casinos and take a deeper look at US inflation trends.

Trump the "magician" is seen as the prime mover for financial markets in recent weeks with new policies including fresh tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, but we find other noteworthy developments outside of the US president's moves. In this episode, we also look into Southeast Asia's hatchery for unicorn startups, India's major tax cuts to boost consumption, and leadership changes in Belgium an...

After two quiet years, 2025 is likely to see a series of initial public offerings. We discuss which stock markets will likely see new listings in this episode. We then look to China and discuss the January contraction in manufacturing output as well as DeepSeek's AI chatbot that has rocked Wall Street and Silicon Valley. Finally, we evaluate Germany's future in the face of a minority gover...

To start off this episode, we give a brief run-through of the current situation on Southeast Asia's residential property market. Then, we dive into the Chinese government's newest attempt to stabilize the stock market by requiring state-run insurers and mutual fund managers to increase their equity investments. Finally, we look towards the West where US President Donald Trump returns to th...

To kick off this year, we look back at the major market movers of 2024 and identify 2025 megatrends. Here at Lundgreen's, we see megatrends as market developments that merit consistent monitoring in terms of how they evolve and influence domestic and global markets. We are keeping an eye on five megatrends for 2025 which we discuss in this episode. Watch the video episode here.