SL Advisors Talks Markets

More than most times, the energy market is moving on macro developments. President Trump is for low oil prices. He wants energy dominance which means ample supply. Although the White House is a big fan of the US energy sector, volumes trump profits. Trump’s first term was not a good one for energy investors. Oil […]

Energy was a laggard in 2025, and within that Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) stocks were especially weak. The S&P Energy Index was +9.1%, 8.8% behind the S&P500. The American Energy Independence Index (AEITR) was +1.7%. The five-year annual trailing return on the AEITR is well ahead of the broader market (23.6% vs 15.3%). Over the […]

Regular readers know that around this time of the year my thoughts briefly stray from midstream energy to Christmas. My love of Christmas pudding has been well documented here (see English Christmas Traditions, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! and watch The Joy of Christmas Pudding). We all fondly remember the Christmas of our childhood. My […]

2025 has been frustrating for those who must explain short term performance in midstream energy stocks – which is to say your blogger, along with many financial advisors whose clients are invested in the sector. It hasn’t been an especially newsworthy year. In 2024, the realization that natural gas would benefit from the growth of […]

Hydrogen has long been thought to be a viable form of carbon-free energy. When burned, it produces water vapor. But hydrogen isn’t very energy-dense (about two thirds less than gasoline), is expensive to produce and hard to handle. An interesting fact is that H2 molecules are so tiny they can gradually leak through a steel […]

Renewables’ advocates are fond of linking solar and wind with the power needs of data centers. Superficially, the marriage of new technology and new energy seems inevitable. Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) is just one example of media outlets that are telling this story (see Power Hungry Data Centers Are Driving Green Energy Demand). Inconveniently, […]

Midstream is mercifully removed from all the angst and excitement of AI stocks and crypto – although in a modern version of selling pickaxes to goldminers, natural gas and its infrastructure enable much of this activity. You have to admire the response of MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor to the bitcoin collapse which has crushed his […]

To be a climate scientist means to live with a dour outlook. The news is never good. We’re always at a tipping point beyond which irreversible damage to the planet will result. Humanity may die out. Therefore, it was cheering to find some good news in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Outlook 2025, albeit […]

Last week an investor asked us for ten reasons why they should commit funds to midstream energy infrastructure now. Typically, three or four bullet points will suffice to make the case, but in this case the request was for ten. Believe it or not, we were up to the challenge! Here they are: Valuations are […]

Your blogger is routinely critical of the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) — for good reason, as its narrow universe and tax-paying structure offer ample points of weakness. They’ve even struggled to calculate taxes owed, which resulted in two downward NAV adjustments in 2022-23 (see AMLP Fails Its Investors Again). At times I’ve even been critical […]

I just finished reading Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book 1929, which relies on a lot of previously unpublished material to tell the story of the Great Crash through some of the protagonists. For those who enjoy economic history or even a good story, this will not disappoint. Benjamin Strong ran the Federal Reserve until his […]

The link between inflation and fee increases for liquids pipelines doesn’t draw much attention, but it proved to be valuable to midstream investors three years ago when the Biden administration’s excessive stimulus drove the Producer Price Index (PPI) up 13%. Maintaining purchasing power is the goal of most long-term investors. Inflation is reasonably close to […]

Last week there were two pieces of news that confirmed the bullish long term outlook for natural gas. On Thursday the WSJ reported on the Behind The Meter (BTM) arrangements that are becoming common (see AI Data Centers, Desperate for Electricity, Are Building Their Own Power Plants). This is faster than connecting with the grid […]

The last few weeks have been challenging for the bullish story on natural gas. On Thursday evening Venture Global (VG) disclosed that they’d lost an arbitration case with BP over their Calcasieu Pass LNG terminal. The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) found that VG had breached its obligation to make a timely declaration of the […]

BP recently published their 2025 Energy Outlook. When big oil producers make projections about consumption it becomes a political document. Climate extremists are quick to accuse companies of opposing the energy transition and consigning the world to ruinous warming. Yet capital commitments need to be based on rational expectations, not aspirational ones. Earlier this year […]

The energy sector is leaving investors unimpressed. YTD the American Energy Independence Index (AEITR) is +5% and seems to be marking time. The S&P500, increasingly dominated by tech and AI exposure, is +13%. Long-time clients, having enjoyed several strong years, hope the better days will soon return. More recent investors demand to know what’s gone […]

Investors are routinely advised to incorporate some international exposure into their portfolios. This can be to add diversification or, in the case of emerging markets, to participate in faster-growing economies. For a US-based investor, this is at best a waste of time. Worse, it can introduce unneeded complexity, cost and poor returns. By investing in […]

I’m traveling in Italy and am not so distracted by the cultural and culinary delights to have overlooked the news on NextDecade (NEXT). I’ve watched the subsequent stock price fall with disappointment. They lowered EBITDA guidance on Trains 1-5 from $1.1BN (midpoint of prior $0.9-1.3BN) to $1BN, starting in 2030. Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) is […]

President Trump continues to heap pressure on the FOMC to cut rates, to the alarm of every economist and bond analyst. Central bank independence is the gold standard for western nations, the only way to assure that politicians don’t seek to juice growth synchronized with the election cycle. Fed chair William McChesney Martin Jr, who […]

Many years ago, when we were researching silver mining companies, I was fascinated to learn how insensitive production and consumption were to prices. Unlike gold, which is mostly held as an investment, silver has many industrial uses. Consumer electronics represents over a third of demand. Silver has few good substitutes and is a comparatively small […]

Goldman Sachs released a report last week forecasting that Brent crude will slip into “the low $50s” by late next year. It currently trades at around $66 per barrel, down $8 from its year-end level end and $11 over the past year. The Energy Information Administration (EIA), in their most recent Short Term Energy Outlook […]

Now that we’re more than six months into Trump 2.0, comparisons with Trump 1.0 are spreading. For energy investors, Trump’s first term was a huge disappointment compared with the high expectations held by many when he took office. A year ago, as investors pondered the impact of a Kamala Harris presidency, we were often asked […]

Most LNG export terminals are built when three quarters or more of their liquefaction capacity has been pre-sold to customers. This ensures that the project will generate cash needed to repay its financiers, since there’s not much else you can do with it other than export natural gas. Buyers have to pay the agreed liquefaction […]

The other day I listened to an interview with the CEO of Anthropic, Dario Amodei, on an Economist magazine podcast. Anthropic is in AI safety and research. They write large language models for sectors including healthcare and financial services. Many people think AI will create such fundamental change that it will eliminate jobs across large […]

On Wednesday Energy Transfer (ET) announced plans to extend its Transwestern Pipeline from Waha in the Permian Basin in west Texas to Phoenix. The Desert Southwest expansion project will improve the egress of natural gas from a region where it’s often produced along with crude oil, which is generally more desirable. The pipeline will support […]