Simply Put

The rise in nominal bond yields the last couple of years has reversed a nearly four-decade trend of falling yields prior to the pandemic. With inflation now slowing and the economic effects of the pandemic fading, it’s unclear whether we will return to something resembling the pre-pandemic interest rate environment or if we are in the early stages of a new normal. In this episode, Terry Belton, fo...

Four times per year, the Federal Open Market Committee releases a Summary of Economic Projections that reports FOMC participants’ projections for the federal funds rate and key economic variables. The SEP, featuring the so-called “dot plot,” gives markets a sense of where the Fed feels the economy and monetary policy are heading the next few years, but the implications are not always clear. In thi...

Banks use Asset Liability Management modelling, or ALM, to position for different interest rate scenarios and economic shocks. Rapid interest rate hikes starting last year and March bank tensions have put unique stresses on bank balance sheets this year, and the prospect of eventual rate cuts can pose its own challenges in the future. In this episode, Mike DeLisle of FHN Financial discusses how ba...

Commercial Real Estate has come into focus from shifting asset valuations and higher interest rates prompted by the pandemic economy. With bank balance sheets exposed to some of these properties, some worry that any weakness in CRE will add to existing banking industry distress. In this episode, Landon Williams of Cushman & Wakefield discusses the primary drivers of CRE in the current environment,...

The pandemic turbo-charged a shift to remote work that has changed how we live and work. Every city has experienced this a little differently depending on demographics, local job composition, and flexibility of municipal budgets. In this episode, FHN Financial’s Abby Urtz discusses how the new remote work landscape is impacting cities and the municipal debt market.

In addition to lowering its policy rate at the beginning of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve engaged in Quantitative Easing, meant to lower longer-term interest rates and stabilize the mortgage market. Now that the Fed is aiming to remove accommodation from the economy, it is quietly shrinking the amount of Treasury securities and MBS on its balance sheet while markets focus on the path of the fe...

The low unemployment rate and improving inflation picture suggest a so-called “soft landing” could be on the horizon. Rate-sensitive sectors like tech and housing also seem to give a roadmap for how the economy can come into better balance without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. In this episode, FHN Financial’s Chief Economist Chris Low talks about why he’s skeptical the Fed can b...

There’s been relative calm in the banking sector recently after months of worry that a few regional bank failures in March were the first signs of much larger cracks in the financial system. Banks face ongoing liquidity risks, but the bigger issues in the next year could be in bank profitability and funding mix. In this episode, Gray Bowles, Senior Vice President of Portfolio Strategy with FHN Fin...