Simply Economics

Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender assess the latest economic data from Europe and the US, including a sharp drop in UK retail indications and sharp gains for US home prices. GDP outlooks are also discussed as well as issues at play for coming central bank meetings.

Our duo of Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender round-up recent data and discuss the outlook for pending data and upcoming central bank announcements. Themes include weakness in the US labor market, ECB lending worries as well as the separation between assessments of current conditions and expectations for future recovery.

Our team discusses the latest employment news from both the US and Canada, as well Covid counts and restrictions in Europe and what it may mean for first-quarter activity.

With much of the global hospitality sector hit by Covid-19 restrictions, takeaways have been a lifesaver for many cafes, pubs and restaurants in 2020. But throughout the year, there’s also been a number of interesting takeaways to be had from how policymakers and financial markets have responded to the coronavirus pandemic. Jeremy Hawkins takes a look at some of the most significant.

Balancing between near-term weakness and medium-term prospects of vaccination relief, the Federal Reserve is not expected to make any policy moves at this week's meeting. And as long as Brexit remains up in the air, neither is the Bank of England though should a no-deal emerge, the bank could take pre-emptive action. Also meeting this week will be the Swiss National Bank whose easing bias, given s...

The post-Brexit world is imminent but has yet to take shape. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss what various outcomes might mean for currencies and also discuss possible outcomes for next week's slate of central bank meetings and their possible effects on the markets.

The impending arrival of a Covid-19 vaccine continues to underpin global stock markets despite mounting evidence of weak fourth quarter GDP in Europe and some signs of slowing activity in the U.S. Geopolitical issues are also discussed as a possible threat to the economic recovery in parts of the Asia/Pacific region.

Jeremy Hawkins takes a look at the state of the recovery in the major economies and warns that future prospects could be seriously damaged by emerging disputes between and amongst fiscal and monetary policymakers.

Strength in retail sales and housing as well as business investment appear to be giving the US an edge at least relative to Europe. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the latest economic data as well as the very latest updates on European fiscal stimulus and, not least, what is supposed to be the final act for Brexit.

The unknown outcome of the US election may be increasing the risk that new fiscal stimulus will either be limited or delayed. Our panel also discusses the Reserve Bank of Australia's move this week to cut interest rates and whether it may be anticipating increasing stimulus, perhaps negative rates, from other central banks including the European Central Bank and Bank of England both of which are f...

Monday's announcement of a breakthrough vaccine promises perhaps a timely turnaround for the global economy, in turn raising questions whether central banks will begin the delicate policy shift to stimulus withdrawal. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the latest implications of the US election as well as the immediate economic outlook which, given new restrictions underway in Europe, may...

Financial markets, including currencies, are showing no dislocations despite surging global debt and aggressively stimulative monetary policy. And even more aggressive policy may in store amid the possibility that the general weakness of the economic recovery will force yet more central banks to adopt negative policy rates.

What to expect or not to expect from the EU leaders' summit is this week's feature, one that poses possible and immediate risks to UK assets. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss worldwide debt, worldwide disinflation, Greek bonds and global growth forecasts.

Relaxation of Covid restrictions is giving much of Asia an economic lift, while lack of new restrictions is a plus for the US. Yet in Europe infections are on the rise at the same time that inflation is moving in the wrong direction, both pressuring the European Central Bank to perhaps increase QE. For all regions, new fiscal stimulus, delayed or not, is the universal cry.

Reflecting the strains of Covid in Europe, splits may be showing at both the European Central Bank, where calls are appearing for greater QE, as well as the Bank of England where talk of negative rates has re-emerged. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also update the outlook for fiscal stimulus both in Europe and the US, and also discuss the possible market impact of US politics and the first preside...

How to control the pandemic while not limiting the economic recovery is the question for policy makers in Europe where talk of a second wave is building. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the general outlook for fiscal stimulus as well as September's run of PMIs and what to expect from the coming Swiss National Bank assessment.

Inflation is the first topic of discussion among many European central-bank policy makers, in distinct contrast to the US where the labor market is top on the agenda. The relative role that currency plays in policy making is also discussed, as are the latest developments over Brexit (specifically the UK’s Internal Market Bill).

New stimulus from the European Central Bank on Thursday isn't likely but, given economic slowing and rising Covid rates, is possible. Uncertainty over passage of July's European recovery package is another risk our panelists discuss as well as new uncertainty over Brexit as the UK toughens its stance.

How is the sharp bounce back in economic data affecting politics, including the pending election in the US? Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also tackle questions surrounding the general weakness in production versus strength in retail sales and home sales.

The great wave of central bank stimulus is finding a home in the equity markets as the great wave of fiscal stimulus is supporting consumers and driving up retail spending. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender consider the outlook for stimulus, including the risk to financial markets of it winding down should Covid-19 cases begin to ebb.

Economic data in Asia, tied to infection levels, are diverging with China bouncing back but others still contracting. For the US, Friday's jobs report will update whether the US is also bouncing back, if not then pressure for fiscal stimulus would heat up even further. In Europe, rising infection levels are raising questions over the third-quarter outlook.

Heightened rates of infection, especially in the US, are pulling down consumer and business outlooks in results that do not support a 'V'-recovery. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss upcoming indicators including US GDP, where massive contraction is expected, as well as Germany's CPI which is at risk of being skewed lower by a cut in value-added taxes.

The good news is that Europe's recovery agreement marks a positive step toward a harmonised fiscal policy and takes a little of the heat off the European Central Bank to further stimulate growth. However, securing the prospective transfer of wealth from the European Union’s northern members to its southern states has highlighted major differences over economic policy and done little to bolster the...

No new stimulus is expected from the ECB on Thursday though the outlook for the EU leaders summit at week's end, and details on an expected €750 billion bailout fund, is less certain. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the latest global data along with US fiscal policy as well as the UK's move to ban Hauwei and what it might mean for post-Brexit trade.

How much of Hong Kong's distinctive character is permitted to survive will be key to how foreign businesses respond to China's security move. And what advantages Hong Kong loses as a financial center will likely pass to two rival financial centers, Singapore and Shanghai. Our panel also discusses high-flying stock prices in the US, economic resilience in Switzerland, and lack of progress in Eurozo...