Simplifying Investing

At its February meeting, the RBA left the cash rate at 4.35%, with noted progress in reducing inflation and bringing demand back to supply. While probably reluctant to raise rates again, the Reserve Bank still has a mild tightening bias and remains somewhat cautious. Join AMP's Chief Economist Dr. Shane Oliver as he unpacks Governor Bullock's comments, what it means for Australian households in th...

The surge in inflation coming out of the pandemic and its subsequent fall has been the dominant driver of investment markets over the last two years. But what’s driving the fall, what are the risks and what does it mean for interest rates? Join AMP's Chief Economist Dr. Shane Oliver as he looks at the key implications for investors. Important information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn...

AMP's Deputy Chief Economist Diana Mousina takes a closer look at Australian household wealth. Why did we have one of the lowest rates of disposable income growth per capita amongst OECD countries in mid 2023? Important information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider your personal circumstances and speak to a financial ad...

2024 is likely to see positive returns helped by falling rates but they are likely to be more constrained and volatile than seen in 2023 given risks around the timing of rate cuts, recession risks and geopolitics. Join AMP's Chief Economist Dr. Shane Oliver as he unpacks the five key themes and lessons from 2023, the three primary challenges we face heading into 2024 as well as the key reasons for...

Join AMP's Deputy Chief Economist Diana Mousina as she takes a deep dive on the five key lessons we learnt from 2023 and what to expect in the next 12 months. Important information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider your personal circumstances and speak to a financial adviser before deciding what’s right for you. Any gen...

Despite lots of angst at the start of the year, 2023 turned out far better for investors with stronger than feared growth despite lots of bumps along the way. With high levels of inflation persisting in 2024, uncertainty in the Chinese economy and property sector, continuing geopolitical risks around recession and the lagged impact of rate hikes, the next 12 months could pose some real concerns fo...

At its December meeting the RBA left the cash rate on hold at 4.35% but still maintained a tightening bias with relatively hawkish commentary. With the economy likely to slow further into next year, join AMP's Chief Economist Dr. Shane Oliver as he looks at whether we are now likely at the peak in rates and why the RBA has done more than enough to bring inflation back to target. Important informat...

Since 2005, the pace of immigration has been a very dominant driver of population growth in Australia, helping address chronic skills shortages in both urban and remote areas. Join AMP’s Deputy Chief Economist, Diana Mousina as she looks at the economic impact of migration levels over the last 12 months and whether the current record pace of net migration can be sustained. Important information: T...

Changes in the value of the Australian dollar are important for Australian investors as they impact both the value of international investments and the performance of domestic assets like shares. AMP’s Chief Economist, Dr. Shane Oliver looks at five reasons for why we can expect the Australian dollar to rise into next year, providing recession is avoided. Important information: This podcast is gen...

Successful investing is not always easy and can be stressful, even in good times. We are all susceptible to psychological traps, however there are some basic principles that can help to avoid silly mistakes. Join AMP's chief economist Shane Oliver as he shares nine key things for investors to bear in mind when navigating the world of markets. Important information: This podcast is general in natur...

Australia's economy has performed stronger than expected despite a slowing down in discretionary consumer spending and persistently high levels of inflation that have fuelled the cost of living crisis. AMP’s Deputy Chief Economist, Diana Mousina looks at why the RBA continues to raise interest rates, the impact this has had on both households and levels of inflation, and why getting the balance ri...

AMP's Chief Economist Shane Oliver reviews the RBA's decision to yet again push north and raise interest rates. Will this be the last or is there is still more to come? Important information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider your personal circumstances and speak to a financial adviser before deciding what’s right for yo...

The last few years have been associated with many geopolitical crises causing investor uncertainty and volatility in financial markets. AMP's Deputy Chief Economist, Diana Mousina looks at the impact of these risks on economies and global markets, the implications for investors and the five key geopolitical challenges to watch for over the coming years. Important information: This podcast is gener...

The last three major cyclical upswings in home prices have required lower interest rates to be sustained. With rate cuts still a long way away, AMP's Chief Economist Shane Oliver looks at why the risk of another leg down in prices is high next year, particularly if unemployment rises significantly, and the key indicators to watch in the months ahead. Read more here: https://www.amp.com.au/insights...

In the 1980s and 90s superannuation investment returns were very strong. But since 1999, nominal superannuation returns have been more constrained averaging 6.2% pa as we entered a lower return world. Five key structural trends suggest higher medium term inflation pressures and constrained economic growth than pre-pandemic. AMP’s Chief Economist, Dr. Shane Oliver looks at why this is happening as...

Australia has witnessed the largest interest rate hiking cycle since the late 1980s, with rates today up by a total of 400 basis points over 14 months. AMP's Deputy Chief Economist Diana Mousina takes a closer look at what the impact has been on borrowers, the number of households in negative equity and how to measure levels of mortgage stress. Diana also examines where to from here for rate hikes...

Posing many humanitarian consequences, the war between Israel and Hamas could further lead to a surge in oil prices that will add to inflation, keep interest rates higher for longer and add to the risk of recession. AMP's head of investment strategy and chief economist Dr. Shane Oliver looks at the implications for investors as well as the impact of higher oil prices on the global economy. Importa...

The rise in bond yields has left shares offering a low risk premium over bonds leaving them at risk of more softness. The conflict in Israel this week has added to the risk, although the threat should be minimal if Iran is not drawn in, avoiding a severe impact on oil supplies. AMP's chief economist Dr. Shane Oliver looks at the parallels with the run up in bond yields prior to the 1987 crash, cur...

The Australian housing market is a deeply watched sector of the economy, because it impacts everybody. This week AMP's deputy chief economist Diana Mousina looks more closely at the housing market, including why prices have rebounded so fast, the outlook for home prices, conditions in the lending market and why the rental market is still so hot. Important information: This podcast is general in na...

In the last week, we saw the RBA leave interest rates on hold for the fourth month in a row, against the backdrop of increasing uncertainty around political developments in the US and geopolitical risks concerning China. AMP's chief economist Dr. Shane Oliver explores the outlook for interest rates amid the further softening of the jobs market, falling jobs vacancies and rising levels of mortgage...

The cheaper you buy an asset the higher its prospective return might be. However, this is frequently forgotten with investors who focus on recent returns. AMP's chief economist Dr. Shane Oliver explores the main issues behind starting point valuations and what current valuation signals are telling us. Read Oliver's insights here: https://www.amp.com.au/insights-hub/blog/investing/olivers-insights-...

AMP's deputy chief economist Diana Mousina looks more closely at the labour market. Join Diana as she unpacks why employment growth has been so strong, what has happened to the unemployment rate as well as what the outlook is from here regarding employment growth. Important information:This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider y...

Australian housing affordability has deteriorated due to low interest rates and a chronic housing supply shortfall. AMP's Chief Economist, Dr. Shane Oliver looks at the vexed issue of housing affordability and in particular the implications of high levels of immigration. Read Oliver's insights here: https://www.amp.com.au/insights-hub/blog/investing/olivers-insights-immigration-and-housing Importa...

Retire with Confidence Whitepaper with Daniel Paperny and Ben Hillier New national research released by AMP today has found most older Australians find it challenging to navigate our retirement system and lack knowledge about fundamental aspects of managing their retirement finances. 3 in 5 wish they’d started planning for retirement earlier in life and 7 in 10 don’t know what an account-based pen...

Increasing evidence is mounting to suggest rate hikes are beginning to bite, with a fall in real retail sales for three quarters in a row, a sharp slump in building approvals and slowing GDP growth. AMP's Chief Economist, Dr. Shane Oliver makes the case for why we are likely at the peak for interest rates in Australia in 2023, arguing the RBA has done more than enough to bring inflation back to ta...