Rigatoni Capital Podcast

TransDigm just reported another strong quarter, with revenue up 18.3% year over year to $2.54 billion, EBITDA margins holding at 52.6%, and full year guidance raised again. This morning I cover my latest Substack post on the company and make the case for why TransDigm is the ultimate picks and shovels play for any cyclical uptick in Boeing and Airbus aircraft production. Whether commercial air tra...

Palantir reported last night and the numbers were historic. Revenue grew 85% year over year to $1.63 billion, beating expectations of $1.54 billion. US revenue crossed 100% growth for the first time, up 104% year over year. Net income quadrupled to $871 million. The Rule of 40 score hit 145%, a level matched only by Nvidia, Micron, and SK Hynix. Full year guidance was raised to 71% growth, 10 poin...

This morning I revisit two posts from the weekend. First, Apple's Services business hitting a record $30.98 billion last quarter and why the $100 billion share buyback authorization matters even more when you realize the hyperscalers are spending hundreds of billions on CapEx and simply cannot compete with what Apple is doing with their cash right now. Apple is returning capital while everyone...

Apple reported last night and the numbers were exceptional across the board. Services revenue hit a record $30.98 billion, ahead of estimates, and up from $26.6 billion a year ago. Greater China surged, iPhone delivered strong results despite some supply constraints on advanced processor chips, and the company authorized a fresh $100 billion share buyback. Apple historically deploys these authoriz...

Last night was one of the most remarkable earnings nights in recent memory. Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft reported within hours of each other and the numbers were staggering across the board. Alphabet posted net income of $62.58 billion, up 81% year over year, with Google Cloud growing 63% to $20 billion against estimates of $15.3 billion. AWS grew 28% to $37.59 billion, beating estimates...

Paul Tudor Jones just appeared on the Invest Like the Best podcast with Patrick O'Shaughnessy and it is one of the best investing conversations I have heard in a long time. Jones, one of the greatest macro traders of all time, reflects on 50 years in markets and gets surprisingly honest about the trading versus investing debate. He started on the commodity trading floor during the Hunt Brother...

The Wall Street Journal is reporting this morning that OpenAI missed multiple monthly revenue targets earlier this year and fell short of its goal of reaching one billion weekly active users for ChatGPT. CFO Sarah Friar has reportedly raised internal concerns about whether the company can fund its massive data center commitments if revenue does not accelerate. OpenAI has roughly $600 billion in fu...

This morning I flag some caution around the semiconductor index SOXX, which has run far enough that it is hard to get excited about it from a value investor standpoint. I also dig into a structural problem with the IGV ETF and its 8.5% cap on individual holdings, which prevents true market cap weighting and makes it a sloppier vehicle than most people realize. We also talk about Nvidia's path...

I had the pleasure of sitting down with Marc Rudajev, straight out of London, who writes the Learning. Investing. Thriving newsletter on Substack. Marc spent over 20 years in global markets at Morgan Stanley across London, Hong Kong, and Singapore before making a pivot into teaching mathematics, finance, and economics. He built a finance program at a school in Los Angeles that grew from an informa...

ServiceNow beat on revenue and earnings last night, growing subscription revenue 22% year over year, raising full year guidance, and posting AI-specific commitments on track to hit $1.5 billion for 2026. The stock dropped 14% anyway because the company flagged a 75 basis point headwind from delayed Middle East deals due to the Iran war. This morning I make the case that software earnings are going...

Kevin Warsh had his Senate confirmation hearing yesterday and made his anti-QE stance clear once again, calling for regime change at the Federal Reserve and advocating for reducing the balance sheet. Warsh left the Fed back in 2011 specifically because he objected to quantitative easing and has spent years arguing it should never have become a permanent policy tool. This morning I give my honest t...

I sat down with Nick Ridenour, who writes the Compounding Alpha newsletter on Substack. Nick does deep-dive stock analysis built around a scorecard system covering eight key areas including growth, profitability, balance sheet, and return on capital. What I love about his work is that he traces the history of every company back to its founding before ever touching the numbers. We covered Texas Pac...

Markets have been hitting fresh highs even as the Iran war grinds on, and this morning I ask the question that Bloomberg was asking last week: are investors simply becoming immune to the headlines? This week is also one of the biggest earnings weeks of the quarter with names I personally own all reporting, including UNH, RTX, CB, LRCX, BX, and LMT. I walk through what I am watching in each of thos...

Netflix reported last night and the numbers were genuinely strong. Revenue came in at $12.25 billion, up 16% year over year. This morning I break down what I actually think about the results, where the business is going, and whether the selloff makes sense for long term investors. I also touch on TSM, IGV, and Microsoft. I wish you all a happy and relaxing weekend! Rest up, we have a big earnings...

This morning I cover the Pentagon reportedly approaching automakers about defense manufacturing capacity, which is a direct reversal of the dynamic from the 1993 Last Supper consolidation. The US-China Cold War continues to be the underlying framework for so much of what is happening in markets right now, from tariffs to chip export controls to China's refined rare earth restrictions. We also...

Stocks have been staging a remarkable V-shape recovery and this morning I go through the charts to make sense of what is happening. I also touch on JPMorgan and BlackRock earnings from this week and look ahead to what is shaping up to be a big Thursday with Taiwan Semiconductor and Netflix both reporting. I also want to give a shoutout to Graham Stephan, the YouTube creator and real estate investo...

JPMorgan reported a 13% year over year profit increase this morning, beating expectations with $49.8 billion in revenue. BlackRock beat on both earnings and revenue. Wells Fargo missed slightly on net revenue. I break down what these numbers mean, and as promised recap the Goldman Sach's earnings report. I also touch briefly on Bitcoin and Oracle. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast fo...

This morning I do a portfolio update and walk through the stocks I added during the recent pullback. Goldman Sachs reported a strong quarter this morning, beating on both EPS and revenue, yet the stock is selling off pre-market which is helping drag the Dow Jones lower than the other indexes. I dig into why that might be happening and promise to have more on it tomorrow. I also share my honest tak...

Kevin, aka Bagholder, is back on the Rigatoni Capital Podcast and came prepared. This episode we go deep on the hyperscaler CapEx cycle and what happens to Nvidia when Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon eventually pull back on spending. Kevin draws a compelling parallel to what happened to Intel and Cisco when Dell cut its CapEx in 2000, and the numbers he found are worth taking seriously. We als...

Michael Burry posted on X that Anthropic is eating Palantir's lunch, citing Anthropic's ARR growth from $9 billion to $30 billion and data showing Anthropic now captures 73% of new enterprise AI spending. Palantir dropped 6% on the news. Then Burry deleted the post. This morning I walk through the argument, why I think the framing of Anthropic versus Palantir misses the point, and why thes...

I sat down with Simeon McMillan of the Accrued Interest newsletter on Substack for a deep dive right before earnings season kicks off. Simeon is one of the best stock analysts I know in the media and advertising space. We covered what Meta's Form 4 filings are actually telling investors about where management thinks the stock is going, why Netflix's price increases are not slowing down any...

Trump posted on Truth Social this morning that "a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again" as his 8pm ET deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz approaches. US strikes on Kharg Island have already begun. WTI is spiking. This morning I cover what this means for markets, go through Jamie Dimon's annual letter and his list of risks, talk about OpenAI...

This morning I make the case that AI disruption is a bigger headwind for markets right now than the US-Iran war. Microsoft sits at the center of that story and I walk through why. I also look at IGV and what the broader software selloff is telling us, and make the case for why Netflix is still a great long term investment even after the recent pullback. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast...

Trump gave his first prime-time address on Operation Epic Fury last night and said the war is nearing completion, promised to hit Iran extremely hard over the next two to three weeks, and threatened to bomb Iran back to the Stone Ages. Oil went up anyway. This morning I cover that and get into my new Substack post on the 5 headwinds investors need to think about before buying a 10% correction. I a...

Jordi Visser has been raising concerns about white collar job displacement and what the broader SaaS tech selloff means for the market. This morning I cover that thesis and where I agree and where I push back, specifically on whether the Mag7 should be avoided right now. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or...