Research @ Citi

Senior analyst Andrew Kaplowitz talks to Rob Rowe about the five themes he expects to be in focus at Citi’s Global Industrial Tech & Mobility Conference (February 18–20 in Miami): companies’ muted Q1 outlooks and whether they reflect conservatism or a genuinely sluggish industrial economy that’s set to accelerate later in the year; the potential for short-cycle tailwinds; the path forward for mega...

The auto industry is an incredibly competitive one to begin with, with more than 60 large manufacturers globally and a hundred or so brands between them. The shift to electrics and hybrids provides even greater levels of choice for the consumer. And now, the European auto industry faces a triple threat of Chinese competition in all markets, aggressive emissions reduction targets amid a difficult t...

Donald Trump is back in the White House, and his policy actions are being watched closely by the markets and the world at large. Trump’s tariff plans — including those toward China — feature prominently in his policy rhetoric. Yet China’s global manufacturing dominance persists, and the United States remains reliant on it for imports. How will U.S. trade with China change in a second Trump adminis...

The global economy continues to defy expectations, powering ahead over the past couple years even amid interest rate hikes, geopolitical instability, and other headwinds. With consumer spending still strong and central banks having largely turned more dovish, 2025 is starting from a favorable setup. Meanwhile, President Trump takes office again next week, vowing tough tariffs and tax cut extension...

How will U.S. equities perform in 2025? That’s the key question in our first episode of the year, where Rob Rowe talks to U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert about the market’s current positioning and his outlook for the S&P 500. Scott explains how ongoing soft-landing and AI tailwinds now interact with Trump policy promises (and risks), how he views the performance of the index’s Magnificent Se...

Cybersecurity and its attendant threats have undergone a renaissance in the last decade. Enterprise cloud adoption, a work-from-anywhere culture, and greater Internet connectivity among devices have brought myriad benefits — and risks. As a result, cybersecurity is no longer a tactical investment but a strategic one that demands the attention of executive boards and heads of state. Join Citi’s Fat...

Citi’s Global Healthcare Conference is under way, and there’s no shortage of topics for discussion. In this episode, healthcare analysts Geoff Meacham and Joanne Wuensch chat with Lucy Baldwin about developments in their respective sectors, including policy implications from the incoming Trump administration, new indications for GLP-1 drugs, upbeat outlooks for innovation and M&A, demographics as...

The global industrials sector is being reshaped by a series of distinct — yet interrelated — tectonic shifts, with critical implications for industrial policy and corporate strategy. Rising protectionism, fallout from the war in Ukraine, lingering effects from the pandemic, technology disruption, and the green transition all make for a complex set of challenges — and opportunities. Join Lucy Baldw...

The UK economy is broadly perceived to have stagnated, its growth having fallen behind that of many peer nations. Productivity growth in particular has shifted from moving in lockstep with the U.S. to decoupling from it since the Global Financial Crisis. What’s behind the UK’s lackluster performance? And what’s needed to change its trajectory? Join Lucy Baldwin and Citi’s Chief UK Economist Ben Na...

Donald Trump was elected to a second U.S. presidential term this week as the world watched the results unfold into the early hours of Wednesday morning. In this special edition of Research @ Citi, Rob Rowe is joined by Scott Chronert, Head of U.S. Equity and ETF Strategy, and Dan Tobon, Head of G10 FX Strategy, to discuss how the financial markets were trading in the runup to the election, and wha...

Defense spending is on the rise amid the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the United States is also looking to deter threats and avoid conflict elsewhere in the world. This has implications not only for traditional contractors but also for venture-backed companies that operate in the “defense tech” sector. Join Citi’s Rob Rowe, U.S. Regional Director of Research, and Jason Gur...

Despite media reports to the contrary, sustainable investment looks here to stay: an estimated $35 trillion in assets have a sustainable investment mandate. Why should investors care about extreme weather events, pollution, or food security? Because natural ecosystems underpin the functioning of a healthy economy and provide insights into key sectors dependent on natural capital. Join Citi’s Elise...

America’s restaurant industry has endured dramatic change in recent years. Covid forced many restaurants to shut down, and the survivors had to adapt their operating models for a world of social distancing. Coming out of the pandemic, stimulus benefits, higher wages and asset prices, and steady employment brought a wave of discretionary spending that benefited restaurants. But since late 2023, cra...

Oil, Gold and Copper — the “Commodity Trinity” — are of particular interest to the financial markets given their importance to the global economy. Oil is a $3 trillion physical commodity market that influences geopolitics, inflation, currencies, and even bonds and equities. Gold is often viewed as a safe haven amid heightened concern over other asset classes. And copper plays a critical role in po...

As artificial intelligence, or AI, continues to grab headlines, enterprise software companies are looking to prioritize AI-related projects with a view to future-proofing their investments. Yet very few of these companies have AI revenue streams today. Meanwhile, generative AI in particular requires increasingly massive amounts of processing power, creating critical dependencies on —and bottleneck...

The digital transformation amounts to an ongoing shift from an economy that's characterized primarily by flows of physical “stuff” to one that’s more focused on data and information. From dramatic improvements in communication to the onset of the creator economy, its impact extends well beyond technology and into downstream sectors like retail, media, and entertainment. How much is the digital tra...

Africa’s share of global GDP is in the low single digits, but two factors in particular could prove transformative for its economy: positive population growth amid a shrinking world population, and the benefit of “leapfrogging”, where its nations can adopt new technologies faster as latecomers by skipping traditional development phases. Meanwhile, the post-COVID world has created significant chall...

After last year’s strong holiday season, U.S. financial markets were concerned that this year’s first-quarter retailer earnings might reveal a lull in consumer spending. Yet the results surprised mostly to the upside as consumption proved resilient. How will the U.S. consumer fare for the remainder of this year and into 2025? Which retailing categories are seeing stronger or weaker spending? Join...

Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, built their initial reputation as passive investment vehicles, and in that context they’ve matured —with a tradable ETF for practically every passive index in the financial markets. But the entrepreneurial nature of the industry has redirected ETFs toward an actively managed path. This presents significant risks —and opportunities —for traditional asset managers and...

This year kicked off with financial markets expecting multiple rate cuts from the Fed, as a slowing trend in jobs growth and easing inflation expectations closed out 2023. But the first quarter revealed a series of upside surprises to inflation, giving rise to the prospect that interest rates might well remain “higher for longer”. Why has everyone —from policymakers to pundits —consistently undere...

The current state of the U.S. housing market can be traced back to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The ensuing retreat of builders and lenders resulted in housing starts trending below a pre-GFC average that had persisted for several decades — in an America with a much smaller population. Then the pandemic hit, which stimulated substantial demand as Americans worked and schooled from home and m...

The power grid is arguably the backbone of modern society. We’re now at a critical convergence of soaring power demand from the digital economy — driven by the rise of electric vehicles, data centers, artificial intelligence (AI), and other technological advances — and an aging grid that requires significant improvement. The International Energy Agency estimates that power lines globally will need...

China’s once-staggering economic growth has stalled. It now faces myriad challenges, including persisting property market woes, rising geopolitical tensions and weak consumer demand. How China responds will have broad-reaching implications for the rest of the world. Join Lucy Baldwin, Global Head of Citi Research, and Johanna Chua, Citi’s Head of Emerging Market Economics, as they discuss China’s...

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