Red Flags Rising

Mike and Brent follow-up on Mike’s being quoted in Dow Jones Risk Journal regarding the unexpected export control consequences of the Israel-Iran conflict. They discuss the geopolitical context (00:39), the article by Richard Vanderford and Mengqi Sun (01:22), the risk that Iran tries to evade U.S. export controls (and sanctions) by procuring replacement parts and equipment through third-party int...

Mike and Brent welcome Tom Blass, Editorial Director of World Export Controls Review (WorldECR) Magazine that is now part of Dow Jones. Mike and Brent discuss with Tom how he and Mark Cusick started WorldECR more than a decade ago to help bridge the gap between law and geopolitics in sanctions and export controls (00:36), the recent acquisition of WorldECR by Dow Jones (04:43), some of the particu...

Mike and Brent unpack the May 13, 2025, due diligence guidance from the U.S. Bureau of Industry & Security. They describe what happened on May 13 (00:00), the guidance from BIS on General Prohibition 10 and Huawei Ascend chips (03:34), the related BIS policy statement (04:13), and then focus on the BIS “Industry Guidance to Prevent Diversion of Advanced Computing Integrated Circuits” (04:47),...

Mike and Brent welcome Dana W. White, Managing Partner at the Juno Collective, to share her thoughts and analysis regarding China and U.S. export controls based on her long career of public service in a variety of national security-related roles. Mike, Brent, and Dana discuss Dana’s national security background (00:49), what happens “behind the scenes” that leads to U.S. agencies determining natio...

In a timely episode discussing end-use and end-user controls and how the full definition of “knowledge”--to include “an awareness of a high probability”--runs through those controls, Mike starts by summarizing key developments on May 13, 2025, right before publication, specifically issuance that day of three key guidance documents by the U.S. Bureau of Industry & Security (BIS) on exactly thes...

Mike & Brent return with a point-counterpoint episode on U.S. export control policy. After discussing the latest news about U.S. AI export controls (01:03), they discuss the points and counterpoints related to whether we should have export controls at all (04:57), the relevance of the national security justifications offered by the U.S. Department of Commerce in promulgating its regulations (0...

Mike & Brent propose an AI Diffusion Rule path forward to help both companies and the U.S. government. They start with an update on last-minute reporting before the episode was published (00:00) then cover the attention the AI Diffusion Rule is getting before its May 15, 2025 compliance date (03:56), the Rule’s similarity’s to the First World War’s “rationing system” for export controls (08:08...

Mike & Brent jump into tariffs to focus on practical strategies to navigate these uncertain times and to mitigate the risk of future enforcement actions. Specifically, they discuss what longer-term geopolitical trends help businesses to plot a strategy despite being whipsawed by tariff news each day (01:57), a recent and helpful Foreign Affairs article, by Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz of...

Mike & Brent react to recent media reports of several congressional committees demanding information from U.S. companies. They revisit their March 14, 2024, NYU PCCE blog post, "“Expect Some Illumination”: A Fresh Look at U.S. Congressional Hearings in the Era of Sanctions and Export Controls as the New FCPA" (01:21), then discuss common pitfalls to avoid when providing information to Congress...

Mike & Brent connect the dots between the Administration's signals regarding U.S. export control enforcement, recent media reports, and how trade compliance teams can best prepare for what comes next. They discuss the overall climate of uncertainty (01:03), an April 8, 2025 report by Reuters about a potential large U.S. export controls fine in the works (01:35), how companies can best respond...

Mike & Brent return to their prior "Fresh Looks" series to highlight their September 28, 2023, post on NYU Law School's Program on Corporate Compliance & Enforcement blog, Know Your Customer, But Also Yourself: A Fresh Look at Sanctions & Export Controls Risk Assessments in the Era of the “New FCPA”. Mike & Brent discuss the post's inspiration (01:22), the importance of conducting...

Mike & Brent update listeners on the America First Trade Policy Section 4(c) Report Executive Summary (01:05) before previewing their forthcoming "Glass Onion" article in WorldECR magazine about the various layers of the "knowledge" standard under the U.S. Export Administration Regulations (03:18), including "actual knowledge" (07:23), "reason to know" (08:44), and "awareness of a high probabi...

In Episode 4, Mike and Brent revisit another of their prior "Fresh Looks" posts on the NYU Law School's Program on Corporate Compliance & Enforcement ("PCCE") blog. This one concerns export control penalties and what to make of recent statements attributed to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Undersecretary Jeffrey Kessler. Mike and Brent discuss the context for the original November 14, 2...

Mike & Brent revisit Brent's original August 25, 2023, "Fresh Looks" post, "When Loopholes Create Liability Pitfalls: A Fresh Look at Export Controls." They discuss what inspired Brent to write the article (00:40), the Inspur Group controversy (05:38), what legacy perspectives were missing about the compliance and enforcement risks (08:25), parallels to U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act enfor...

Mike and Brent discuss remarks at the Bureau of Industry & Security's "Update" Conference that started today in Washington, DC (00:00), specifically Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick's statement that he would take a hard line against China (02:18), including a "dramatic increase" in enforcement (04:01) and fines (13:45). In the returning segment "Brent Carlson's Managing-Up," Brent identifi...

In the launch of Red Flags Rising, Mike and Brent explain the concept and purpose of the pod (00:00), a recent report by Gregory C. Allen of the Center for Strategic and International Studies on "DeepSeek, Huawei, Export Controls, and the Future of the U.S.-China AI Race" (linked below) (01:43), the report's emphasis on backing strong regulations with strong enforcement (04:49) and the recently re...

Teaser trailer for the new Red Flags Rising podcast!