Recession Watch with Fexingo: Economic Cycles, Indicators, and What Slowdowns Mean

Core inflation hit 3.4% in May 2026, the highest since October 2023, according to the Fed's preferred PCE gauge. Lucas and Luna break down why this specific measure matters more than headline CPI for recession forecasting, how it challenges the Fed's rate-cut timeline, and what the current 10-year yield of 4.40% tells us about bond market expectations. They also discuss why rising core inflation i...

Lucas and Luna drill into a recession indicator that's rarely discussed: the cost of moving goods across oceans. With the Baltic Dry Index and container freight rates spiking in mid-2026 due to geopolitical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and China's export curbs, they explore why rising shipping costs can be a leading signal for economic slowdown. Lucas explains the mechanism: when shipping c...

This episode of Recession Watch examines a rarely-discussed but increasingly telling recession indicator: the ratio of rent to income for American households. With core inflation at 3.4% in May 2026 — the highest since October 2023 — and the S&P 500 down 1.6% over the past week, Lucas and Luna dig into why rent burdens are reaching critical levels. They discuss how rent-to-income ratios above 30%...

Core inflation hit 3.4% in May 2026, the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna dig into what this means for the recession debate. They break down why services inflation is sticky, how the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place, and what history says about inflation at this level before a downturn. With the 10-year yield at 4.40% and the yield curve still barely positive, this episode co...

In this episode of Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna examine the surprising rise in core inflation to 3.4% in May 2026, the highest since October 2023. They explore how sticky services inflation and supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are keeping price pressures alive, even as the economy shows mixed signals. With the Fed's preferred gauge climbing, they discuss what this means for rate...

As core inflation hits 3.4% in May, the highest since October 2023, a quieter cost driver is pressuring households and businesses: insurance premiums. Lucas and Luna examine how property and auto insurance costs are surging due to climate risks and reinsurance repricing, acting as a hidden drag on consumer spending. With the S&P 500 at 7,354 and the VIX at 18.41, markets are calm—but insurance dat...

On Episode 76 of Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna dissect the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—core PCE—which hit 3.4% in May 2026, the highest since October 2023. They explore why this specific measure matters more than CPI for recession forecasting, how it differs from the 2022-2023 inflation spike, and what the current plateau means for the Fed's next move. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.41% and...

Episode 75 of Recession Watch with Fexingo digs into the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, which hit 3.4% in May 2026—the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna explore why this 'sticky' core inflation number is flashing a recession signal that markets are underestimating. They break down the interplay between rising hourly earnings (up to $37.50), the yield curve (still positively sloped at 31...

In this episode of Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna examine the latest core inflation data — which hit 3.4% in May 2026, the highest since October 2023. They discuss what this means for the Fed's rate path, the likelihood of a recession, and why this signal might be different from previous inflation scares. The hosts also explore how factory job cuts and geopolitical risks are complicating the econ...

Lucas and Luna dig into an overlooked recession indicator: the cost of moving across state lines. With data from United Van Lines and Allied Van Lines, they trace how long-distance moving rates surged in Q1 2026 even as housing demand softened. Lucas shares a conversation with an industry analyst who says the spike reflects corporate relocations and remote-worker migration, not a healthy economy....

Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising rebound in job openings reported by JOLTS for April 2026, which hit 7.618 million—up from 6.887 million the month prior. While conventionally a sign of labor market strength, they explore why a sudden spike in vacancies after a prolonged cooling period may actually foreshadow a recession. Drawing on historical parallels from 2007 and 2019, they discuss how em...

Episode 71 of Recession Watch with Fexingo: hosts Lucas and Luna dig into a counterintuitive economic signal—the national personal savings rate. As of early 2026, the savings rate has climbed to 5.2%, well above the post-pandemic lows. While conventional wisdom says more saving is good, Lucas explains that a rising savings rate during a period of stable employment and wages can actually signal con...

Episode 70 of Recession Watch with Fexingo digs into a scary new data point: factory job cuts in June 2026 are approaching levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis and the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Lucas and Luna examine what S&P Global's PMI survey is revealing about manufacturing employment, why the broader labor market still looks resilient with a 4.3% unemployment rate, and whether...

Episode 69 of Recession Watch examines a growing stress point in the economy: small business credit access. While big corporations continue to tap bond markets at favorable rates, Main Street firms face tightening lending standards, higher rejection rates, and rising delinquencies on small business loans. Lucas and Luna break down the latest data from the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey,...

In Episode 68 of Recession Watch, hosts Lucas and Luna dive into one of the most puzzling developments in recent economic history: the yield curve has been uninverted for months, yet the economy still hasn't tipped into recession. Lucas explains why the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread, long considered the gold standard recession indicator, may have lost its predictive power. He walks through...

Episode 67 of Recession Watch digs into a surprising indicator: consumer confidence surveys are rebounding even as the yield curve remains inverted and jobless claims dip. Lucas and Luna examine the University of Michigan sentiment index, which jumped in June 2026 despite lingering inflation worries. They compare this with the Conference Board's data and the Kansas City Fed's recession probability...

In Episode 66 of Recession Watch with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna drill into a rarely discussed recession indicator: the share of unemployed workers who have been jobless for 27 weeks or more. While the headline unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent, long-term unemployed now make up over 22 percent of total joblessness — a level historically associated with economic downturns. They explore why this me...

Lucas and Luna dig into a counterintuitive recession indicator: the quits rate. On June 21, 2026, JOLTS data shows job openings rising but quits remain below pre-pandemic levels. The hosts explain why fewer people quitting signals worker anxiety and a cooling labor market, tying it to the yield curve and Fed policy. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.49% and the 2-year at 4.20%, the spread is just 27...

Average hourly earnings in the US hit $37.50 in May 2026, up from $37.41. Wages are rising faster than inflation in some sectors, but Lucas and Luna unpack why that might actually be a warning sign for the broader economy. They look at the split between high-wage and low-wage industries, the impact on corporate margins, and what the Fed's next move could mean. Plus, a look at the yield curve still...

In this episode of Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna examine a less-talked-about recession indicator: the surge in credit card balances relative to income. With revolving credit up 7.8% year-over-year as of May 2026 and personal savings rates dipping below 3.5%, consumers are increasingly leaning on plastic. They discuss how this trend historically precedes downturns, why the current cycle might dif...

Episode 62 of Recession Watch digs into one of the most reliable leading indicators of economic downturns: temporary help services employment. Lucas and Luna unpack why temp staffing tends to peak months before a recession begins, using the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing temp payrolls have declined in four of the past five months through May 2026. They explore the structur...

This episode of Recession Watch with Fexingo examines a counterintuitive recession signal: rising labor force participation. While a growing workforce seems healthy, Lucas and Luna explain that when participation rises during a slowdown—as it has in recent months—it often masks underlying weakness. They anchor the discussion in the latest data: the unemployment rate holding at 4.3 percent while jo...

Episode 60 of Recession Watch with Fexingo drills into the quits rate—the share of workers voluntarily leaving their jobs—as a leading indicator of economic confidence. Hosts Lucas and Luna examine how a rising quits rate signals a tight labor market and worker optimism, while a falling quits rate often precedes a downturn. They analyze the latest JOLTS data showing job openings jumped to 7.6 mill...

In this episode of Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna examine a worrying trend in consumer credit: credit card delinquencies are rising even as job openings and hourly earnings improve. They dig into the latest data, including April JOLTS figures showing job openings up to 7.6 million and initial jobless claims ticking higher to 229,000. Lucas explains why the divergence between strong headline jobs...

Lucas and Luna dig into a recession indicator that doesn't get as much attention as the yield curve or jobless claims: factory orders ex-transportation. With the S&P 500 hitting new highs and the VIX below 17, it's easy to ignore the manufacturing side of the economy. But new data from the Census Bureau shows core capital goods orders have declined in three of the last four months, and the Institu...