Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Stocks surged on the last trading day of the month, but it was still the worst January for the Nasdaq since 2008. According to Mark Ritchie, managing partner and chief investment officer of RTM Capital Advisors, we’re probably not going to see the type of V-shaped recovery that we saw in March 2020. Although last Monday marked a potential momentum low, “per my work,” notes Ritchie, “we are already...

Brad Snyder and Weston Nakamura, a trucker and a trader, are back with Exchanging Lanes to challenge conventional macro data analysis, using real-world, real-time, on-the-ground observations and applying differentiated takeaways. In this episode, Weston and Brad look ahead and explore where disinflation or deflation risk may arise with a focus on inventories. They see massive overcapacity of wareh...

Pippa Malmgren, who served as Special Assistant to the President of the United States for Economic Policy under George W. Bush, says financial markets are likely to shrug off military conflict in Ukraine because it probably won’t resemble traditional warfare. Malmgren tells Real Vision managing editor Samuel Burke that the new “quantitative easing” is military spending in cyberspace. Recorded on J...

A favorite Federal Reserve inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures index, measured 4.9% year over year for December. It hasn’t been that hot since September 1983. And the employment cost index was up an annualized 4% during the fourth quarter of 2021, an all-time high for that metric. Meanwhile, talk on the U.S.-Russia-Ukraine front has turned to economic sanctions, which, whil...

The Commerce Department reported the fastest annualized rate of U.S. gross domestic product growth since 1984 for the fourth quarter of 2021. But it’s hard to call this “Morning in America.” Investors and central bankers are still fixed on inflation and the coming tightening cycle, as other data suggest continuing supply-chain problems and omicron concerns linger. Earnings have been mixed, with Ap...

The Federal Open Market Committee said today “it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.” And it issued a separate statement on “Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet,” even as asset purchases continue. Stocks were already having their best day of 2022 ahead of this afternoon’s releases, and equity indexes continued to rally...

The U.S. appears to be ramping up its support of NATO forces to counter Russia’s threat to Ukraine. And, after selling off along with all risk assets yesterday, crude oil prices are once again rising. Other commodities produced in the Baltics, such as natural gas as well as wheat and corn, are also sensitive to geopolitical tension. This comes as the Federal Reserve opens a two-day meeting during...

The Biden administration is preparing to deploy troops and equipment to Eastern Europe and the Baltics to counter Russia’s threat to Ukraine, as UK officials suggest Moscow aims to install a pro-Kremlin government in Kyiv. Stocks all over the world are tumbling, again, and Bitcoin has breached key technical levels. And there’s real concern about European natural gas supplies. “Risk on” for Putin m...

Cryptocurrencies are crashing, stocks are tanking, bonds are rallying, and central banks are diverging. That all spells “risk off,” as the pandemic rally has surely come to an end. Is there an “all clear” moment coming? When should we prepare to buy this dip? Raoul Pal joins the conversation for an update on what’s happening in the crypto space. And Maggie Lake talks with Jared Dillian, editor of...

The commodity “super cycle” chorus will only get louder with crude oil touching eight-year highs, nickel reaching levels not seen in a decade, and even gold looking like a compelling trade right now. Mixed U.S. economic data probably won’t alter the Federal Reserve’s plans to tighten monetary policy. But China’s central bank is clearly in easing mode. Combined with constrained supply across the co...

U.S. equity indexes bounced between “green” and “red” today, reflecting investor uncertainty amid a spike in volatility. Portfolio positioning is the critical question, as inflation fears feed expectations of four interest-rate hikes in 2022. Supply-chain issues continue to burden the global economy. And, now, crude oil is threatening to reach $100. Consumers are getting crunched, and investors ar...

Bond yields rose across the curve Tuesday and stocks sank, as investors began to price in the potential impact of as many as four Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2022. The U.S. 10-year yield jumped to 1.865%, the highest it’s been since January 2020, and the German 10-year bund moved to within one basis point of turning positive for the first time since 2019. U.S. equity indexes were off nearly 2%,...

DB-Jan 14,2022: U.S. retail sales fell in December as surging prices hit consumer spending. Raoul Pal discusses what opportunities are available for investors in an environment of rising inflation and why he is looking at the carbon trade. He also provides his view on Bitcoin, Ethereum and how to understand the macro environment. You don’t want to miss Raoul’s take on how we should be thinking ami...

DB-Jan 13,2022: In today’s volatile trading environment, charts can be a clear way to make investment decisions. Katie Stockton gives her technical take on the S&P 500 (which she says will enter a corrective phase in 1-2 weeks), FAANGs, 10-year yields, and more. Find out why she suggests sticking with core longs that have the support of rising moving averages and get some actionable ideas. We’ll a...

DB-Jan 12,2022:December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 7% year-over-year, the biggest jump since 1982. And even worse supply chain disruptions may be on the horizon if Omicron sweeps through Asia and prompts more lockdowns across China. HSBC warns that disruptions to manufacturing are inevitable, and the world could be headed for the “mother of all” supply chain bottlenecks. 42 Macro founder...

DB-Jan 11,2022: During a hearing for his re-confirmation as Fed Chair, Jerome Powell said the central bank will work to relieve inflationary pressures in the economy. Following Powell’s testimony, the Nasdaq rallied for the second day in a row. In the U.K., the London Metal Exchange experienced an over five hour long outage but resumed trading after migrating its systems to backup. Sharing how he’...

DB-Jan 10,2022: Goldman Sachs expects a more aggressive Fed this year with four interest rate hikes on the horizon in an effort to to tame inflation. The prediction comes as U.S. stocks extend a volatile start to the year and Bitcoin dips below $40,000 for the first time since September. People who invested in BTC in the run up to the launch of the Bitcoin ETF are about to break even. Will the Fed...

DB-Jan 07,2022:Non-farm payrolls in the U.S. rose by 199,000 in December, which pales in comparison to the original estimate of 422,000. Despite the actual numbers landing below expectations, unemployment in the country fell to 3.9%, which was actually better than the estimated 4.1%. Wages increased 4.7% year-over-year according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The industries that reaped the ben...

DB-Jan 06,2022:On Wednesday, the S&P 500 fell 1.9%—the worst single-day decline in 11 months and the worst start to a year since 2008. Even crypto is taking a beating. The entire country has turned its attention to the Fed, which yesterday hinted at becoming more aggressive, triggering the steep drop in stocks. The taper, rising rates, and declining balance sheets are on the agenda. Thomas Thornto...

DB-Jan 05,2022:The U.S. Fed just released its meeting minutes, hinting that it may get more aggressive with tightening the balance sheet and reducing stimulus. That caused stocks to plunge immediately. China just launched a wallet app for its own digital Yuan currency with the aim to expand its usage to more people in the country and, simultaneously, achieve more control over crypto in the country...

DB-Jan 04,2022: OPEC+ has agreed to increase its oil production by 400,000 barrels per day in February as it is believed that Omicron will not have a detrimental impact on demand. The Institute for Supply Management revealed a slowdown in U.S. manufacturing in December, but still in firm expansion territory. It also showed signs that inflation may be starting to cool as supply-chain disruptions ea...

DB-Jan 01,2022: Alfonso Peccatiello, the author of the Macro Compass, shares his outlook on 2022 on the first trading day of the year, which saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite inch higher. Peccatiello discusses how he sees the economy moving forward: his view on China’s economy, the property market, and the Evergrande’s debt crisis. Peccatiello also talks about Fed rates, inflation, the bond mar...

DB-Dec30,2021:December has been a brutal month for Bitcoin — with prices plunging around 30% from their all-time high in November. In this special edition of Crypto Unwrapped, Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Real Vision’s own Weston Nakamura join Ash Bennington to discuss what’s driving price action in these highly volatile markets. The group breaks down key concepts, including year-end options...

DB-Dec27,2021:What put a floor under global markets last week may not be what you think. Weston Nakamura provides an overview of the global and cross-asset markets in the last week of the year. Nakamura explains that regional market holiday schedules matter because they determine the makeup of active market participants. He then talks about the unprecedented volatility in the Turkish Lira having r...

DB-Dec23,2021:What’s going on in Turkey, and why should we keep an eye on it? Daily Dirtnap editor Jared Dillian fills you in on what you need to know about the Turkish Lira. Nikola delivers its first EV truck, boosting its stocks by 20%, and Elon Musk is now almost done selling his Tesla shares. Dillian also shares his rules of trading for 2022, which might be riddled with choppy waters. Intervie...