Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Why did global equities stage their biggest rally since November 2020 upon the official launch of a monetary tightening cycle at the March 2022 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee? Why was this decisive risk-on move in stocks led by the tech sector, as front-end bond yields surged, curves collapsed, and dot plots adjusted? And why are the vast majority of market commentators confused, wit...

Award-winning hedge fund manager and market commentator, Hugh Hendry, joins Maggie to break down his fascinating career, what he learned from 17th century rice traders, and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The average 30-year mortgage rate in the U.S. surged past 5% for the first time since 2011 this week, up from 4.72% last week, as the market continues to price in an aggressive monetary tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve. Inflation remains the dominant factor for policy makers, investors, and consumers. In fact, as Jared Dillian notes, it’s time to think about the unthinkable: hyperinflation....

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report on the producer price index for March showed the biggest month-over-month and year-over-year gains on record, 1.4% and 11.2%, respectively, as inflation continues to dominate the discourse. The PPI data follow the hottest consumer price index reading in 40 years, 8.5%. As the Federal Reserve continues to try to convince markets and consumers it’s serious abou...

The Consumer Price Index increased 8.5% in March compared to a year earlier, another new 40-year-high following a 7.9% annual gain in February. Energy and agriculture markets remain the critical areas of focus, each of them adversely impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. U.S. equity indexes surged on a slower-than-expected 0.3% month-over-month CPI increase, and many economists see this as a p...

The Consumer Price Index for March is going to generate a lot of headlines when it’s released on Tuesday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. That’s still the No. 1 issue confronting policymakers and investors, and, given the constraints on energy and agricultural commodities exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, that’s likely to be the case for some time. Will the Federal Reserve tighten policy to the...

What did Rick Rule learn from renowned investor, Warren Buffett? He shares that with Maggie on a bonus edition of My Life in 4 Trades Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Legendary trader, Rick Rule, joins Maggie Lake on the debut episode of My Life in 4 Trades to discuss his journey investing in natural resource securities, the companies he has financed across the globe, and the most important lessons he’s learned along the way. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The U.S. dollar index hit 100 for the first time in two years on Friday, surging on the prospect of a more aggressive monetary tightening cycle on top of an increasingly fraught geopolitical landscape. Signs of inflation abound, even as the Federal Reserve asserts its hawkishness at every opportunity. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization’s food price index jumped nearly 13% in March to a new...

WTI gave back early gains today, as member-states of the International Energy Agency agreed to release 60 million barrels of oil from storage in a follow-up move to President Joe Biden’s plan to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for 180 million barrels. There are also questions about whether eurozone authorities will be able to keep Russian oil off the market. Chinese officials provided more rhe...

Minutes to the Federal Open Market Committee’s March meeting reveal that the U.S. central bank plans to begin reducing its balance sheet as soon as after the FOMC’s May meeting. Policymakers discussed monthly caps for asset runoffs, $35 billion for mortgage-backed securities and $60 billion for Treasuries. The plan includes a phase-in period of three months, or modestly longer, but the monthly tot...

With the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s March meeting set for release on Wednesday, financial markets continue to search for direction. Kansas City Fed President Esther George said today a faster pace of rate increases may be warranted, with 50 basis points on the table for May. Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard noted the central bank will raise interest rates steadily and wil...

Today marks 40 days since Russia invaded Ukraine. U.S. equity indexes hold solid gains as we near Monday’s close in New York, with Asian and European stocks having already ended normal trading sessions well in the green. Energy commodity prices continue to react to developments in Eastern Europe, with crude oil rising today on reports the European Union is planning to impose more sanctions on Mosc...

In the wake of the pandemic, Jim Bianco believes that “there is a wholesale change underway in the economy.” But is it all doom and gloom from here? Not necessarily. We appear to be in a period of transition, which, historically, has also been a catalyst for economic progression. Bianco introduces Martin Fleming, Michael Drury, and Sal Mercogliano to discuss the changes we’re experiencing today, h...

Positioning for a crisis is no easy feat but Mike Green was one of the few traders that was able to profit during the pandemic while others were left asking the same question: “what the hell is going on?” While Green was positioned well for the pandemic, it wasn’t all plain sailing. Just what are the psychological aspects of trading in situations like these? In addition to describing his philosoph...

Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about volatility across markets, the economy, and geopolitics. Stocks closed out their first losing quarter in two years on Thursday, and U.S. bonds had their worst three-month period in more than 40 years. The eurozone’s inflation rate jumped to another record high in March. Although prices dipped for th...

President Joe Biden announced a plan to release from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve 1 million barrels of oil per day for the next six months as part of the federal government’s effort to fight inflation. Releasing 180 million barrels from the SPR is an unprecedented step. But it’s unclear whether it will have a meaningful impact on oil prices. Earlier Thursday, OPEC+ ratified a 432,000 barre...

The Japanese yen, long a safe haven, is not reacting to crisis this time around the way it has in the past. In fact, the yen just broke through a key long-term level of technical support and is trading at six-year lows versus the U.S. dollar. But Governor Haruhiko Kuroda continues to defend the Bank of Japan’s yield cap, in place to sustain accommodative monetary policy, despite broader risks to t...

Although no formal agreements have been reached, Moscow has said it will redeploy troops and reduce military activity around Kyiv, and Ukraine has said it will adopt a neutral stance in exchange for a Russian ceasefire, stoking optimism the end of the war in Eastern Europe is in sight. Delegates from Russia and Ukraine met face-to-face in Istanbul Tuesday, with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavu...

As Jared Dillian puts it, when the prices of things we need are going higher and the prices of things we want are going lower, “it creates economic misery.” Things we need include fossil fuels and agricultural commodities. Things we want include stocks and bonds. In 2022, with stock and bond prices falling and commodity prices rising, wealth has evaporated, and the cost of living has increased. An...

Raising capital for small companies is a difficult and time-consuming process — legendary entrepreneur Ross Beaty, chairman of Equinox Gold, emphasizes the importance of having tenacity and adaptability to change strategy when things don’t pan out. From a lifelong journey of building up businesses and investing, he chats with his long-time friend and fellow investor Rick Rule, president and CEO of...

Russell Clark, one of Real Vision’s favorite guest-personalities, returns for another engrossing conversation with Raoul Pal. Russell always brings fresh perspectives, and Raoul is always keen to draw on his current thinking to help make sense of what’s happening around us. In short, Russell’s current sense is that everything has changed. In a far-ranging conversation, Russell and Raoul weigh the...

Inflation is at four-decade highs in the U.S., and supply constraints caused by the war in Eastern Europe only increase upward pressure on crucial commodities. The Federal Reserve is laser-focused on the issue, to the point where futures markets are now pricing in more than nine rate hikes in 2022. And the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit a two-year high on Friday, reaching 2.503% on ex...

The Federal Reserve was already staring down an inflation problem well before Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops into Ukraine. One month into the war, there’s no clear end in sight. And constraints on key commodities will continue to drive prices and spur the creation of new supply chains. The Fed launched its tightening cycle with a 25 basis point increase to the fed funds target...

In another sign energy is now a second front in the Eastern European war, President Vladimir Putin has said he wants “unfriendly countries” to pay for Russian oil and gas in rubles. Putin’s move follows reports that European Union nations are considering joining the U.S. boycott of Russian oil and in the aftermath of a weekend attack on Saudi production facilities. Brent crude, the European benchm...