Real Vision: Finance & Investing

The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth projections for 2022 and 2023, describing the outlook as “gloomy and more uncertain.” That general picture is reflected in cuts to quarterly and annual profit forecasts by U.S. retail bellwether Walmart $WMT. The European Union’s natural gas crisis did take a relatively constructive turn with an agreement by member countries to cut consumption...

The major U.S. equity indexes were mixed as of midday Monday, as investors anticipate another interest rate move by the Federal Open Market Committee and digest earnings reports from some of the biggest companies in the world, with numbers expected to be held down by a strong dollar and soaring inflation. We’ll also get an advance estimate of second-quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis...

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. On this week’s jam-packed episode of The Next Big Trade, Doomberg, a Substack star and a low-key FinTwit legend, and Michael Kao, the CIO of the Kao Family Office, join Harry Melandri to talk about everything happening across crude oil, natural gas, and other key energy markets. Doomberg, Mi...

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Noel Smith has learned many hard lessons during his 25 years trading volatility, making markets, and managing risk. Now a managing partner and the chief investment officer of Convex Asset Management, Noel cut his teeth by trading Enron and losing big but turning it around and coming out of...

Deteriorating PMI data in the U.S. as well as Europe ahead of what the market expects will be a 75-basis-point rate hike following next week’s Federal Open Market Committee enhanced the specter of slowing economic growth, even as we’ve yet to see peak inflation, and investors sold stocks today. That’s despite the fact that the United Nations brokered a deal between Russia and Ukraine to restart sh...

The European Central Bank announced an expectations-beating half-point interest-rate hike today, at the same time introducing a “tool” to ensure borrowing costs in vulnerable economies don’t spiral out of control, as central banks continue to fight inflation. Weston Nakamura drops in at the top of today’s Daily Briefing for an update on the Bank of Japan’s divergence from its peers, coining the ph...

The Office of National Statistics reported Wednesday that inflation in the U.K. hit a new 40-year high in June, consumer prices rising 9.4% from a year earlier and adding pressure on the Bank of England for a response. Meanwhile, a gauge from the European Commission showed Euro Area consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level on record. And two measures of the health of the U.S. housing market...

In his most recent newsletter, Tony Greer of TG Macro wrote, “The setup for oil bulls on this gorgeous summer Friday morning is not to be believed. Stocks and commodities just spent the last quarter hemorrhaging in historic proportions, and now we’ve got a textbook turnaround setup…” Well, stocks are ripping today, and WTI crude oil is back above $104 per barrel, even as residential-starts data su...

Goldman Sachs and Bank of America posted solid headline-level earnings this morning, both benefiting from higher interest rates during the second quarter. But both also posted significantly higher provisions for bad loans, a sign of concern for the health of debtors. Meanwhile, hope for some sort of relief from Saudi Arabia appears to be the forlorn variety, as Desert Kingdom officials declined to...

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Shawn Hackett is the president of Hackett Financial Advisors, a firm that helps investors and hedgers (most notably farmers but end-users too) make better decisions when they get involved in agricultural commodities markets. Shawn joins Harry Melandri to talk about how weather patterns figur...

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Michael Gayed has amassed a Twitter following of more than 664,000. So how does he meet the expectations and manage the stress that come with such a public undertaking? In conversation with Maggie Lake, Michael shares his social media coping mechanisms, and he also explains how music became...

Jared Dillian tweeted it out: “It would take 8 months of 0.0% CPI readings to get CPI back to 5%.” And that was before the Commerce Department reported retail sales grew by a greater-than-expected 1% in June. President Joe Biden is in Saudi Arabia working on one angle of the inflation crisis, as investors re-priced the possibility of a 100-basis-point move when the Federal Open Market Committee me...

On this week's jam-packed Real Vision Twitter Spaces, Raoul Pal, Ash Bennington, and Jim Bianco talk about everything from inflation and the US dollar to growth and tech, including crypto and so much more. Enjoy! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The producer price index was up 11.3% year over year in June, the seventh consecutive double-digit gain, and accelerated to 1.1% from 0.9% in May on a month-over-month basis, as inflationary pressure continues to build. JPMorgan Chase & Co., the biggest bank in the U.S. by market cap, reported a 28% decline in earnings and boosted its provision for bad loans by $428 million. And jobless claims sur...

Registering yet another 40-year high, the consumer price index for June came in at 9.1% and solidified at least a 75 basis-point move when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month. The Bank of Canada broke the seal on 100 basis points today, and the probability of a similar move by the Federal Reserve spiked after this morning’s inflation report. Whatever the magnitude of its upcom...

We’ve yet to see the hard domestic economic data sufficient to support the case that the Federal Reserve will pause its monetary tightening program. Perhaps the June consumer price index, due tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET, will be that data. In the meantime, ZEW survey results for July reflect acute concern in Germany about the potential impact of a complete embargo on Russian gas, with the index of ec...

Markets meandered during a mixed Monday session, as investors bide their time ahead of Wednesday’s release of consumer price index data for June. We’re already seeing signs that tighter money is impacting real economic activity in the U.S., with homebuilders reporting steep slowdowns in sales and sharp upticks in cancellations last month. Tighter policy is also encouraging investors seeking safety...

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management co-founder Jim Rogers joins Harry Melandri for a special episode of The Next Big Trade. Rogers, discussing the possibility of a bear market, notes that he doesn’t have much confidence in the Federal Reserve. He also explains why he sees a lot of value i...

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Anne Stevenson-Yang, the co-founder and managing principal at J Capital Research, famously predicted the collapse of Evergrande, one of China’s biggest property developers. In China for 25 years, Anne’s been at the epicenter of its rapid economic ascent, in recent years researching opportun...

It was already going to be a significant Jobs Friday before the West awoke to news of the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, perhaps his country’s most significant postwar leader, certainly its most consequential in the 21st century. U.S. payrolls did grow by 372,000 during June, beating the consensus forecast and pushing pause on talk of an imminent recession. Yields surg...

On the eve of one of the most consequential Jobs Fridays maybe ever, Jeffrey Snider says markets reflect an ongoing struggle between central bankers and investors. The former believe they must continue on their rate-hiking path. The latter, particularly bond investors, are showing far greater concern about economic growth. Snider, the chief strategist for Atlas Financial and the co-host of the pop...

The Institute of Supply Management’s services gauge sank to its lowest level in two years, mortgage demand declined despite falling rates, and the housing rental market cooled markedly, as evidence of economic slowdown accumulates. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, as revealed by the minutes to the June 14-15 FOMC meeting, remains “highly attentive” to inflation risks. “The market is still in a proc...

Commodity prices are collapsing, the U.S. dollar is soaring, and the yield curve has inverted again: This is not an auspicious combination. Nor is the fact that a Bloomberg Economics model is now indicating a 38% chance of a recession in the next year. Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to talk about recent price action in the commodities market and the longer-term...

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Realtor Steve Saretsky is the author of one of Vancouver’s most popular real estate blogs. Steve joins Harry Melandri to talk about everything to do with Canada’s housing market. He’s bearish because mortgage rates are rising rapidly while consumer debt levels are already very high. Vancouve...

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Jason Buck’s story is wildly fascinating. When he was 19, he turned $2,000 into $100,000 simply by investing in tech stocks. A few years later, he was worth roughly $5 million. But he lost it all during the Global Financial Crisis, and he had to move in with his sister. It’s a wildly fascin...