Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Historic protests over the weekend have pushed President Xi Jinping into perhaps the most uncomfortable position of his tenure, as China’s continuing struggle with COVID-19 restrictions weighed on market sentiment ahead of Monday’s open. All three major U.S. equity indexes were down more than 1% heading into the close, while investors sought safety in government bonds. Already skeptical of the rec...

Markets held modest gains late Wednesday, as minutes from the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee suggest monetary tightening will continue, though at a less intense pace, and the policy interest rate may even reach a higher terminal level than initially forecast. That’s as more and more indicators point to slowing growth in the U.S. At the same time, data from Europe suggest...

All three major U.S. equity indexes were up about 1% heading into Tuesday’s close, rallying on light volume as investors look forward to a long holiday weekend with hope the Federal Reserve will soon ease off the monetary tightening. That’s even with sentiment indicators like the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey showing a base-case expectation for “stagflation.” Maggie Lake welcomes Daily Dirtn...

It’s a Thanksgiving-abbreviated trading week in the U.S., but there’s no lack of compelling evidence to sift this Monday. Stocks were mixed two hours ahead of the close, but long-duration Treasury yields had sent a decidedly risk-off message on signs the domestic economy is slowing. Crude oil prices reached lows not seen since January, with OPEC denying reports it will discuss production increases...

Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar founded macroeconomic consulting firm Sri-Kumar Global Strategies to advise multinational firms and sovereign wealth funds on risk and opportunity around the world. Sri joins Harry Melandri to explain why China’s global ambitions represent a major macro risk and, at the same time, how emerging markets have never had more potential for growth. Never miss an episode of Next Big T...

Todd Edgar was once one of Wall Street’s star proprietary traders. Before he started Atreaus Family in 2019, he worked for some of the biggest houses in investment banking. In this episode of My Life In Four Trades, Todd shares the critical lessons he’s learned over nearly three decades in financial markets, explaining to Maggie Lake how “naïve optimism” helped shape his entrepreneurial mindset an...

U.S. equity indexes were mixed heading into the final two hours of the trading week, a fitting close as investors continue to struggle with data that suggest inflation has peaked and a Federal Reserve that, at least in public word, seems as hawkish as ever. “On November 10, 2022, inflation died,” Warren Pies writes in the most recent note from 3Fourteen Research. “And, despite our view that inflat...

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note spiked and equity indexes sagged Thursday, as St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said the Federal Reserve still has a lot of work to do before it brings inflation under control. That follows San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly’s remark on Wednesday that a pause in rate hikes was “off the table.” Meanwhile, the United Nations has brokered...

U.S. retail sales were up more than expected in October, posting the biggest month-over-month gain since February, but equity indexes struggled after Target posted disappointing third-quarter results and warned of a soft fourth quarter too. The yield on the 10-year Treasury yield declined, though the two-year/10-year curve inversion deepened on expectations the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawk...

Softer-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index data for October reinforced the hope that inflationary pressures are finally beginning to ease and fired a strong open for equities Tuesday morning. “Be patient,” advises Dale Pinkert, “and wait for pullbacks.” Pinkert, the head of trader development at TradeGateHub, joins Maggie Lake to talk about whether the trend has changed for the U.S. dollar and...

U.S. equity indexes drifted into mildly positive territory two hours shy of Monday’s close, continuing to digest October’s Consumer Price Index data, relatively dovish words from Federal Reserve insiders, and the still-unraveling FTX situation. With inflation seeming to ebb as a global concern, President Joe Biden is in Bali for his first face-to-face meeting with President Xi Jinping. “I continue...

Justin Huhn, the founder of Uranium Insider, joins Harry Melandri for a compelling conversation about the resurgence of nuclear as a baseload power option and rising demand for uranium in the latest episode of The Next Big Trade. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Anthony Scaramucci has worked in two of the most pressure-driven environments in America – investment banking at Goldman Sachs and the communications shop in the White House during the Trump administration. And he’s seen and experienced all sorts of success and failure. In this episode of My Life in Four Trades, the founder and co-managing partner of SkyBridge Capital and chairman of the SALT Conf...

It appears that inflation finally eased last month, as the rate of underlying price increases excluding energy and food slowed from a 40-year high. And U.S. stocks are staging their biggest rally since 2020. Weston Nakamura welcomes Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to break down October Consumer Price Index data and provide some context for today’s “melt-up.” Then, Weston...

“We live in a world where the price of every key asset in the world is in U.S. dollars,” notes Darius Dale at the top of a recent tweet-thread explaining specifically what’s happening with crippled crypto exchange FTX and generally what happens during liquidity crunches. Meanwhile, Chinese economic data continue to deteriorate, despite low interest rates and high savings rates. Real Vision Global...

U.S. equity indexes surged early on Election Day but sagged heading into the last two hours of trading, rising perhaps in anticipation of a market-friendly divided government in Washington D.C. Gold rallied as well, a sign that investors may have some concerns about Republican promises to hold the line against future debt-ceiling increases without cuts to entitlement programs. And then there’s the...

U.S. equity indexes held modest gains at midday Monday, as investors prepare for midterm elections with particularly global potential consequences. Andreas Sten Larsen goes around the world with Jacob Shapiro, the founder and chief strategist at Perch Perspectives, for briefings on the major geopolitical issues and their impact on financial markets, including Europe’s energy crisis, China’s reopen...

Luke Gromen, the founder and president of Forest for the Trees, is a highly respected voice in the global macroeconomic research community. Luke joins Harry Melandri to explain why he’s long energy. He also talks about major shifts in global trade and volatility in the sovereign debt market on another captivating episode of The Next Big Trade. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe he...

Chris Sullivan, a portfolio manager of Hyperion Decimus, transitioned from traditional finance to crypto – and he says it’s the best move of his career. A lot of that has to do with crypto’s freek-market system, where bailouts are not an option. Chris explains how that cutthroat culture has attracted – and continues to attract – some of the best minds in the world. Never miss an episode of Next Bi...

U.S. stocks opened higher but drifted lower through the trading day, digesting an October nonfarm payrolls report that showed a still-strong labor market in the aftermath of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s forceful rejection of “pivot” talk earlier this week and ahead of crucial midterm elections next week. Traders are now pricing in a 5.25% peak policy rate via the June 2023 swap contract....

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced a fourth consecutive 75-basis-point rate hike, and Chair Jerome Powell aggressively pushed back against any thoughts of a “pivot.” Today, the Bank of England followed the Fed with its own 75-basis-point rate hike, even as it warned what would be the country’s longest recession ever has already started and will continue through 2023 and into 2024. The dollar...

The Federal Open Market Committee added a couple of interesting phrases to its policy statement announcing a fourth consecutive 75-basis-point interest-rate increase, noting that it will take into account time lags and the impact of cumulative tightening during future meetings. In his post-FOMC-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the centrality of price stability to sustai...

Chinese stocks and the yuan rallied on unconfirmed reports authorities have formed a committee to reconsider China’s “COVID zero” restrictions on economic activity. There was no follow-through in the U.S., though, as investors remain focused on Wednesday and the Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary policy decision. Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of the Morning Navigator, jo...

“This should be fun,” tweeted Doomberg amid reports President Joe Biden will propose a “windfall tax” on profits of oil and gas producers, as political leaders continue to pose against the global energy problem. Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes the congenitally acerbic and always insightful Green Chicken for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about realistic solutions to a situation that only seems to be...

Which economic indicator is the most reliable for confirming we’re in a crisis? According to Verdad Capital founder and portfolio manager Dan Rasmussen, it’s high-yield spreads. Identifying the key relationships across the globe isn’t hard. Formulating an approach that surfaces alpha when spreads spike is where it gets difficult. Per Rasmussen, the best way to act in such environments is through s...