Real Vision: Finance & Investing

It’s been a roller coaster day for U.S. equities, as stocks plummeted after Microsoft issued weak forward guidance on its earnings call. But as of this writing, indexes have erased those early losses and the options market is now pricing in a Fed pivot after next Thursday’s Fed funds rate announcement. Imran Lakha, the founder of Options Insight, joins Maggie Lake to discuss his views of the macro...

U.S. equities were flat today as investors weigh dual uncertainties: earnings season and a potential recession. Meanwhile, energy and interest rates both closed in the red, and business conditions contracted in January for the fourth month in a row, according to the latest S&P survey. Andreas Steno Larsen sits down with Eric Johnston of Cantor Fitzgerald to discuss the latest price action and hear...

The U.S. stock market rallied to start the week, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the way after a slew of job cuts from major tech companies entering earnings season. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 made new monthly highs and broke above key moving averages. Mike Coolbaugh, the founder of Element Macro Research LLC and a Real Vision analyst, joins Maggie Lake to discuss today’s price action and w...

Turkey has been the best-performing equity market in the world in dollar terms in 2022. Meanwhile, the Mexican peso and the Brazilian real have been among the strongest currencies against the buck this year. Amid global upheaval unlike anything in recent memory, emerging markets have become much more attractive to investors. Is this a durable trend in asset allocation? Andreas Steno Larsen welcome...

In the inaugural episode of Steno's Signals, Andreas walks us through why inflation will fall fast in the first quarter of this year, why that might not be a broad-based sign to buy equities—especially in the energy sector—and tells us how he’s setting up to trade it. Recorded on January 3rd, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stocks rallied back on Friday but are still down on the week as another large round of job cuts hits the technology sector. In today’s extended version of the Daily Briefing, Jared Dillian joins Maggie Lake to discuss this week’s price action, overall market sentiment, and when he sees a true Fed pivot coming into play. In the second part of this extended show, we’ll dive deep into what Jared is s...

Stocks extended yesterday’s slide after lower-than-expected U.S. weekly jobless claims this morning suggested a still-resilient labor market. Meanwhile, December housing starts slowed less than forecasted, tech layoffs continue, and earnings reports suggest that the Fed’s rate hikes are beginning to manifest a recession. Tom Thornton, the founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Maggie Lake to make...

U.S. equities gave back this week’s gains as investors try to parse producer-side deflation, the probability of recession, and the Bank of Japan’s decision to leave its yield curve control policy unchanged. The BoJ on Wednesday maintained its ultra-low interest rates, which sent the yen lower and led to interesting action in Japanese government bonds. Global markets contributor Weston Nakamura joi...

U.S. equities began the week choppy as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both reported steep profit losses in Q4 2022. Banks see a recession coming, but does the rest of the market agree? Ash Bennington sits down with Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of the Morning Navigator, to hear what moves he’s watching in energy and commodities and how he feels about the broader rally in stocks. We’...

What’s the trajectory of inflation in 2023? How about the likelihood of a severe recession? There’s no shortage of uncertainty as we look past the holidays, but Joseph Wang, Andy Constan, and James Helliwell have some thoughts on what’s to come. Don’t miss this discussion of how to navigate the markets in 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Are investors prepared to weather the storm that’s brewing for global markets? Welcome to the latest edition of V Questions, where expert guests answer 5 questions in 1 take with zero preparation. On today’s show, Felix Zulauf and Cullen Roche share their thoughts on the trajectory of inflation in 2023, the likelihood of a severe recession, and why patience will be key for anyone trying to navigat...

Earnings season for Q4 2022 kicked off today with both Bank of America and JPMorgan warning of a “mild recession” coming later this year. That’s a long way from the early-2023 crash that many analysts predicted not long ago. So, what changed? Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal joins Andreas Steno Larsen for a special two-part edition of the Daily Briefing. Raoul and Andreas will discuss the...

The pace of U.S. inflation slowed again in December as overall consumer prices fell by 0.1% month-over-month, according to the latest CPI report. Stocks ticked higher as a result, and the market is now pricing in a 25-basis point interest rate hike from the Fed next month. On today’s show, Maggie Lake is joined by Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, to hear why he believ...

Stocks are inching higher as we await tomorrow’s December CPI release, with tech leading the way as the Nasdaq Composite puts in a fourth straight green day. China-related equities and commodities are also rallying on optimism about China’s reopening. On today’s show, Andreas Steno Larsen is joined by Harry Melandri of MI2 Partners to discuss the state of markets, what China’s reopening means for...

On today’s show, Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the latest developments in markets and the state of global macro conditions with an eye toward commodities. Shawn’s a commodities expert, and he’ll talk to the to the flooding in California, other erratic weather and upcoming patterns to explain what they mean for everything from agricultural prod...

The stock market continued to rally on Monday, pushing higher from Friday’s big gains with the technology sector leading the way. At the time of this writing, the Nasdaq Composite is up 1.67%. On today’s show, Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap newsletter, joins Ash Bennington to discuss the overall market sentiment, why he’s monitoring Tesla ($TSLA), and how he’s positioning his portfolio...

There’s no shortage of uncertainty as we enter a new year, but don’t blink --- you might just miss the move that makes 2023. Welcome to the latest edition of V Questions, where expert guests answer 5 questions in 1 take with zero preparation. On today’s show, Milton Berg and Mish Schneider share their thoughts on the trajectory of inflation in 2023, the likelihood of a severe recession, and what s...

Welcome to the latest edition of V Questions, where expert guests answer 5 questions in 1 take with zero preparation. On today’s show, Mike Coolbaugh, Diego Parrilla, and David Higgins share their thoughts on the trajectory of inflation in 2023, the likelihood of a severe recession, and why volatility is hardly a bad thing for prepared investors. Are you ready to ride the new wave? Don’t miss this...

With Nonfarm payrolls coming in above estimates, and wage growth softer than expected, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said today that “the Fed needs to stay the course” with regards to raising interest rates in 2023. U.S. equities rallied on the news — essentially calling the Fed’s bluff as the market prices in a pause in the coming months and rate cuts in the latter half of the year. On tod...

U.S. stocks are down after new employment and jobless claims data released this morning indicated a still-resilient labor market. Private-sector employment rose by 235,000 in December, according to the latest ADP employment report, well above expectations. Annual pay for “job-stayers” rose 7.3%. Meanwhile, new jobless claims came in below estimates. On today’s show, Michael Gayed, the portfolio ma...

Federal Reserve officials believe that “substantially more evidence” of slowing inflation is necessary before the central bank cuts interest rates this year, according to the December FOMC minutes which were released Wednesday afternoon. Fed officials cited concern that inflation could prove “modestly persistent,” and said that higher rates for longer will be necessary to fight inflation. Official...

The first trading day of 2023 is in the books and boy was it eventful. As warmer-than-average temperatures hold up across the globe, natural gas prices are falling off a cliff. At the time of this writing, natural gas futures are down 11.8%. Oil is down meaningfully as well. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks gave up early morning gains, with Apple and Tesla leading to the downside. On today’s show, Tony and...

There’s no going back to 2019, according to Jim Bianco, and the sooner we accept reality the better we’ll be able to see new opportunities. The post-pandemic global economy is fundamentally different, and the “easy money” era is over. In the final episode of our ‘Best of 2022’ series, Raoul Pal welcomes the founder of Bianco Research for a talk about inflation and the longer-term implications of s...

Dario’s views of the global economy’s structure and how the next decade plays out are very different from those of most observers. He thinks the 1970s analogue is the wrong one to look at and that the postwar decades, the 1940s and the 1950s, provide a better framework. At the same time, he foresees a move toward a "tangible economy" and away from the "intangible economy" of the 2010s. In the four...

“Regionalization” is the transition from a world of stable prices and consistent growth to one of rising costs of living where the threat of global famine is real. The breakdown of an economic order framed by just-in-time supply chains requires a rethink of trade networks and relationships. Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan addresses these issues and more in his new book “The End of the World I...