Poll Hub

Almost since the founding of the nation, immigration has been a political flash point. Since 2016, when Donald Trump rode his pledge to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border to the White House, most Republicans have supported very tight restrictions to immigration of all types. Over the last year, the number of people crossing the southern border has hit record levels and, this week, Biden mad...

The first week of 2023 has brought a historic spectacle to Congress. Republicans eked out the majority in the House in the midterm elections but can't agree on a Speaker. Whatever eventually happens, what will it mean for how the House operates (or doesn't) over the next two years? How about for Republican and Democratic changes in 2024? We look at our recent polling data to see what Americans thi...

The U.S. Census reports there are now more than 1 million same-sex couple households in the nation and our expert guest, Dr. Shoshana K. Goldberg, Director of Public Education & Research at the Human Rights Campaign, says it's more than just a milestone. In the same month that the President signed a bi-partisan bill to make same-sex marriage legal (the Supreme Court ruled that way several years ba...

As 2022 winds down, Washington will see big changes as a new Congress will be seated in a few weeks – with a big difference over the current one – Republicans will control the House. What do Americans expect from this arrangement? Our poll with NPR and the PBS NewsHour indicates there's little hope for much accomplishment and Americans broadly agree on something else: our democracy is seriously th...

The 10th anniversary of the horrific mass school shooting in Sandy Hook, Connecticut is on December 14th, 2022. The people of the town have noted prior anniversaries quietly and that’s expected again. But 10 years on, we wanted to see what – if anything – had changed: in policy, in public opinion, in the number of additional shootings. Then, the pandemic sparked a mass early retirement party for o...

Sure, the 2022 elections aren't even officially over yet, but with Trump already announcing his run for President in 2024, we're looking at new polling showing he may be facing a very uphill climb. Then again, Joe Biden is no more popular for 2024 so what -- or who -- do Americans want? The data suggests they may not know, but they do know who they DON'T want. Next up, smoking is making a comeback...

The "Red Tsunami" was downgraded to a "Red Wave" on election night before ending up as a "Red Ripple." So, why did so many in politics and the media get it wrong? A lot are blaming "the polls" but we're explaining why that is simply not true. As we've said on Poll Hub for years, quality polls are entirely different from aggregators that average surveys from everyone -- including organizations with...

We made it! Election Day is behind us and most of the votes have been counted, so, now it's time to see how WE did. Our final polls showed close races and we were on the money. We discuss how we changed how we poll in order to adapt to a changing world and how that may have made our polls more accurate. We're also sorting through the rubble of the massive number of new and/or untested polls that f...

We're diving deep into the data from our new national poll with NPR and the PBS NewsHour to spot the national trends that are shaping this election. While many results seem to favor Republicans in general, one really stands out for how big a change it is from prior years' polling -- and it could signal a stronger Democratic showing than some expect. We've also wrapped our final battleground state...

We've been polling key states since Labor Day and this week we released new numbers from Ohio and North Carolina. Both feature retiring GOP Senators, meaning open seats with no incumbents. Democrats are hoping to grab one or both to add to their bare-minimum majority while Republicans want to keep them in their column. Ohio shows a notable increase in the top concern of voters... what has changed...

We devote the episode to our conversation with Steve Thomma, who's been involved in covering the White House as a reporter since Ronald Reagan's second term and now serves as Executive Director of the White House Correspondents' Association. Steve talks about how the relationship between the White House and the journalists assigned to cover it has seemed to worsen almost continually since the 80s....

First stop, colorful Colorado. It seems like both parties are revved up for the upcoming election, with big majorities of Dems and Republicans saying they will definitely vote. What does this mean for the incumbent Democratic governor and senator? The Lone Star State is next, and Texans on both sides are surprisingly confident in elections to be "fair and accurate" in November. Will the o'reliable...

Our latest national poll with NPR has good news for Democrats...and Republicans with roughly four weeks to the midterms. For instance, Joe Biden's approval rating keeps trending up but Republicans are more enthusiastic to vote. And then there's this: We asked if people thought their favored candidate should concede if he/she/they lost the election. We dig into all the results. Next, crime has been...

Our battleground state polling continues, as we take a look at Arizona and Pennsylvania. In one way, little has changed in Arizona since the nail-biting 2020 results, as the Governor's race is nearly dead even. But what is different is what appears to be ticket splitters giving the Senate contest a very different look. Pennsylvania, on the other hand, is looking pretty solidly blue, as Democratic...

Our first election season polls of battleground states start in Georgia and Ohio where marquee Senate races are very close but the contests for governor in both states are less so. We look deep into the numbers to explain what's going on and what to watch for in the final seven weeks of the campaign. Next, American families are cutting back on spending...and commitment. Our latest poll with NPR an...

Does history repeat or just echo? Plenty of smart people have begun looking at the state of our hyper-partisan and hyper-fractured political landscape in America and fearing we're headed for a new civil war. One of them joins us to discuss why the idea isn't so outlandish to those who look at what has precipitated civil wars in recent decades. Stephen Marche, author of The Next Civil War: Dispatch...

The FBI's investigation into the removal of documents from the White House by former President Donald Trump is stirring the pot amongst voters. Did he do something illegal, unethical, both, or neither? And, how does this affect his Republican base? We discuss this and more as we look toward the 2022 midterm elections. Next, the everlasting effect of the COVID pandemic on school kids' education. We...

The Poll's America Now Index has been reporting on the mood of the nation for several years and has never been quite like this . There's no getting around that America's mood is dreary and inflation is not the only (or maybe even main) reason. The funk is widespread as all four categories we track fell and several specific areas hit historic rock bottom. Some reasons may be obvious but looking dee...

The conventional wisdom in politics all year has been Republicans will win back the House and maybe the Senate on the wings of Joe Biden's low approval ratings and the economy's high inflation rate. But, ever since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade , that narrative has been suffering. On Tuesday, New York voters chipped away further. We look deep into contests right in Marist's backyard to...

The GOP is churning. The FBI raid of Trump's Mar-a-Lago sent some Republicans into an anti-government, "defund the FBI" tizzy, while others pushed back on jumping to conclusions. But, there's no denying Trump is still popular among Republican voters and most of the candidates he has endorsed this year call the 2020 election fraudulent or stolen…and have kept winning.  Then, a lack of child care im...

Over the last ten days, President Biden has been busy signing huge bills, killing terrorists, and getting some good economic news. Great, right? But, with approval rating still in the dumps and prices still running high, is it too little, too late to help Democrats in November? Next, Americans just don't like or trust the "media." But, as our guest Marist College journalism professor and author of...

In the first post-Roe chance for voters to weigh in on abortion rights, reliably red Kansas surprised the nation. Kansas voters turned back a proposed amendment to the state constitution to remove protections for abortion rights. Next, between massive floods, fires, and pervasive heat waves, climate change has become impossible to deny. It appears Americans are becoming believers in climate change...

Joe Biden's approval rating is bad — in our most recent NPR/PBS NewsHour he hit his lowest number to date — but it’s especially bad among the youngest voters. Why are young Democrats so meh about the President? And, will it matter much in the midterms, especially since young people are the least likely to vote? We discuss that with The Economist data journalist Elliott Morris before turning to his...

Americans have shifting opinions about the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol. Our latest poll with NPR and PBS NewsHour looks at how the Jan. 6 hearings may be changing public opinion about the attack, Trump's role in it, and what should happen as a result. We're looking deep into the data to find some surprises. Next, we look at America’s top-of-mind issue: inflation. Americans are stressed...

If you thought America's health care problems ended with the passage of Obamacare, think again. We're looking at data from a recent NPR and Kaiser Family Foundation poll on healthcare debt in the U.S. Noam Levey, a Senior Correspondent for Kaiser Health News, joins to help us understand the newest health care crisis. Next, we look at pride in America. According to a recent Gallup Poll, Americans a...