Politics with Paul

Every presidential election is important, but some have more long-lasting impacts than others. These include changes to the political landscape, fundamentally reshaping the executive branch and the presidency's power, establishing precedents, and establishing long-lasting programs. Today's episode covers some of the most consequential presidential elections in this regard, focusing on both the ele...

It has sometimes been remarked upon a president’s reelection that there is a “2nd term curse,” where presidential records and legacies take a hit due to lesser success than the 1st term. But are 2nd terms really less successful than 1st terms? What factors can we look at to examine the theory’s validity? What do other political observers have to say about the idea? Today’s episode covers these que...

As strong as political party attachments can be, there are times where elected officials, candidates, and voters can drift away to a different party or go independent. What are some of the reasons for this? Is it a fast or slow process? How have party affiliations shifted by demographics and region over time? Do we have statistics on elected officials that have changed party affiliation? All these...

The Democratic and Republican Parties are often treated as monoliths that think almost if not entirely the same way on all issues. While Democrats are becoming more uniformly liberal and Republicans are becoming more uniformly conservative, you can find some noticeable differences within the parties in different parts of the country based on political necessity, upbringing and environment, and fac...

Happy New Year, everyone! Have you wondered how exactly the electorate is divided between Democrats, Republicans, and Independents? The answer is sort of complicated, but we do have some sense of the divide. Today's episode covers how exactly we know what we do about voters' party affiliations, how each state handles parties on the ballot, survey data on the public's party identifications, and wha...

Calls for implementing term limits on the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) are not new, but they have seen amplified calls in recent years. But would term limits fix the issues with the current appointment process? Are lifetime outdated? There are a bunch of practical and philosophical considerations to think about in this debate such as the arguments made for and against lifetime terms...

The partisanship of Congress has ebbed and flowed over its history. Yet while majority control of the US House and US Senate tends to be hotly contested between the Democratic and Republican Parties these days, that wasn't always the case. Both parties have had periods where one has demonstrated dominance over the other. Today's episode is an overview of the partisan history of the US Congress, in...

US presidential power and prestige has expanded greatly since the Framers of the Constitution designed the new form of American government. Yet just as heavy debate ensued at that time as to what the president can and should do with his powers, controversies have continued all throughout US history through today. Today's looks at some of those debates (such as whether checks on presidential power...

Why do we hate politicians (particularly Congress) so much yet so often reelect the same ones? The incumbency advantage is a well-documented phenomenon in political science, and 2024 saw sky-high reelection rates for elected officials running for their same seats. Although incumbency advantage can vary by type of office (e.g. Congress, governors) and by state, those already in office tend to have...

Another presidential election has come and gone, with Republicans walking away with generally more success than Democrats. Yet the 2024 results aren’t entirely settled. Some election winners have yet to be decided, and accurate vote totals still need to be certified. However, there are a lot of takeaways we can already glean. Today covers results for president, Congress, governor, state legislatur...

It’s finally here. We’re on the cusp of the 2024 general election, and the next president of the United States is about to be decided. Either Democrat Kamala Harris will become the nation’s first female president or Republican Donald Trump will become the second president to serve nonconsecutive terms in office. Popular votes do not decide presidential elections, however: Electoral College votes d...

Today's episode dives into some of the most important, competitive US House and gubernatorial races and state legislative chambers that could possibly flip majority party control. These US House races not only are critical for determining whether Republicans keep the majority or Democrats gain it, but also for their potential impacts on the presidential election (including ways you may not expect)...

There are 9 or so seats up for election in the US Senate in 2024 that are expected to be competitive, including some states that are presidential battlegrounds. Today's episode of PwP covers the races in that chamber are expected to be the tightest, including one contest that has a slight chance of being an upset, and some of the key factors to look at in each. There is no random question today. T...

What kind of factors and contexts should we look at to determine whether an election is competitive? Such aspects include campaign finances, party support, the impact of simultaneous races, and candidate qualities. Yet it’s not enough to have an advantage in any of these aspects—you must be able to harness those advantages properly. This episode takes a general overview of what makes elections com...

As important as knowing what the competitive races are is knowing where there is a lack of competition and what election results are likely or basically guaranteed to happen. But expectations aren't just about who is going to win. We also can make reasonable predictions about things like campaign spending, incumbent performance, and voter turnout. Today is part 1 of the preview of Election 2024, f...

Political parties in America have been around since the ratification of the US Constitution and have persisted despite increasingly negative opinions Americans have about both the Democratic and Republican Parties. Why are the two major parties so ingrained in the American political system? How did we get the parties we have today? How do independents and third parties factor into politics? All th...

Today's episode of PwP is the first one to feature a special guest! Seth David Radwell joins me to discuss his book "American Schism: How the Two Enlightenments Hold the Secret to Healing Our Nation," available on Amazon in ebook, hardcover, and audiobook. The book makes the case for how there are multiple strains of Enlightenment thinking that have sparked division throughout all of American hist...

The coverage of predictions of election results ramp up the closer we get to elections. Election forecasters, both individual and organizational, have their own formulas for how they rate the likelihood of a Democrat or a Republican of winning a given contest. Today's episode dives into a variety of the factors these forecasters use to make their prediction, including election history, polling, an...

Government officials take an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution before they take office, yet conservatives and liberals often have considerably different views on how to interpret the US Constitution. Do we interpret it in the context of when passages were ratified? Does the meaning change as society and times change? Today looks into the origins and development of the debate over how to i...

It takes a lot to amend the US Constitution. About 12,000 amendments have been put in front of Congress over 230+ years, but only 33 of them have been passed by Congress and only 27 of those have been fully ratified as part of the Constitution. So, when could the 28th Amendment be ratified and what will it be? Today, we look at the 27 previous amendments, some quick amendment ratification stats, a...

Voter turnout is the foundation of the American system of government, and studying the factors influencing turnout is a key component to understanding what makes American voters tick. So, what makes voter turnout fluctuate? How do we even measure it? How has turnout changed over time? All this and more is the focus of today's episode of Politics with Paul. Today's random question: Do you use the O...

You hear about "red" and "blue" and even "purple" states all the time in elections—red for Republican, blue for Democrat, and purple for a mix of the two. Yet what criteria are needed to actually tell when a state is one of these colors? How did we even get to using red and blue colors for the Republican and Democratic Parties, respectively? Which states are red, which are blue, and which are purp...

A presidential candidate must win a majority of the Electoral College (270+ electoral votes out of 538) to win the presidency. But what happens if no candidate reaches that threshold? That's where contingent elections come in. Today, I talk about how the Electoral College has changed over time, how contingent elections work, and one way 2024 could become a contingent election (though the possibili...

Why do we hold elections at the time of year we do, and why does it matter? Election timing plays a crucial role in the voting process, and depending on the time of year an election is held voter turnout rates, and who turns out to vote, can look vastly different. Today, I dive into how election timing is defined, a brief history of how election timing got to where it is today, the arguments made...

Calls for implementing maximum age limits on our government officials have increased as of late. But the debate is often made out to be far simpler than it actually is. In today's episode, I dive into the arguments that supporters and opponents of a maximum age limit make. Then I talk about what other factors must be accounted for if we were to have a maximum age limit, such as what that age would...