PersuMedia Minutes

Neither Iran nor Saudi Arabia came to the negotiating table at China’s urging. Rather, both sides seem to have assessed that it was in their best interests to reach an agreement and to do it in Beijing. For Tehran, the benefits are obvious...

Despite much nice talk by Iranian leaders in the past three months and some real progress in easing tensions with its neighbors, the budget suggests that Nezam’s basic strategy has not changed.  Funding for the police, intelligence services, and prisons has increased by between 44 and 55 percent; the budget for Islamic Propagation is up by 53 percent.  This suggests Tehran will continue its policy...

On March 10th, China announced that it had brokered an agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore diplomatic relations, re-establish embassies, and respect one another’s sovereignty. While many analysts claim this is good news for the Middle East, others disagree. Read more here .

Aside from the embarrassment of China’s role as its midwife, a détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia serves US interests: it decreases the risk of conflict in the region, improves prospects for an end to the ruinous war in Yemen, and holds out the promise of greater Iranian restraint in the employment of its client militias in the region.  These are cause for concern and were deployed as argu...

So Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, with China’s help, have agreed to resume diplomatic relations that were disrupted seven years ago and to return to bilateral agreements signed in 1998 and 2001. In the process, they will reopen their embassies in the respective capitals in less than two months. What would this mean, and what would it entail?

The recent reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia has drawn praise from both factions in Iran, the conservatives and the reformists. While hardliners highlight the development as a setback for the U.S., reformists argue that the agreement signals the defeat of radicals. But no matter how they come down on the deal, both sides acknowledge that it will likely increase China’s influence in the...

The Iranian media began to fawn on Ra’isi and his foreign policy following news of an agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia to end years of geopolitical hostility and revive ties in a deal mediated by China.

In what seems like an escalation on Iran’s political scene, members from various political factions and groups are openly calling on the Ra’isi administration to resign, citing the dire economic situation which they blame on massive management. Read more from this week's newsletter here .

Will the IRGC, always suspicious of the JCPOA, oppose Ra’isi if he makes concessions to revive the JCPOA negotiations? Will Khamenei continue to support Ra’isi? How much opposition would Ra’isi face from a principlist Majles? And, finally, can Ra’isi offer something that would entice a deeply skeptical US Administration to come back to the table, especially with the next US presidential election o...

Who is to blame for poisoning schoolgirls in Iran? Pundits compared current government reactions to the January 2020 downing of the Ukrainian passenger plane in which the Nezam came clean after three days of flip-flopping. Some recalled the role of state institutions in the horrendous serial murders of the 1990s. Can the standoff between the establishment and the citizenry be resolved? Read more h...

IRGC unhappiness with Ra'isi's management could, at a minimum, influence Khamenei’s perception of the president. Moreover, IRGC disfavor would be a significant handicap to Ra’isi’s prospects for succeeding Khamenei as Rahbar. Read more here . 

The captain of the Titanic allegedly responded with “What iceberg?” when asked why he was not changing course to avoid it, providing a historical archetype for the Nezam’s headlong rush toward the unknown. The continued state of tension over hijab, the deteriorating economic conditions, and the Nezam’s tenacious adherence to failed policies despite the extreme loss of public trust suggest that tho...

These instances of “monkey see, monkey do” by the Nezam underscore Khamenei’s commitment to taking Iran down a totalitarian path to preserve the Islamic Revolution. The Nezam views the “Iran-Russia-China triangle” (as one hardliner put it) as one based on shared authoritarian values. From Khamenei’s standpoint, though, that doesn’t matter—if the people try to rise up, he can “look East” for the te...

Going into the meeting, Ra’isi was undoubtedly aware that since the 25-Year Iran-China Strategic Cooperation Agreement was signed in March 2021, Chinese investment in Iran has failed to materialize.  Over the years, although some signs of increased diplomatic and economic engagement have been seen, little progress has been made in attracting Chinese capital. This is likely due to sanctions an...

This past week continued to see a push from establishment conservatives—whom we glibly branded as “the old guard”—and from reformists for a course correction by the Nezam.  This effort may eventually gain momentum and force the Nezam to recalibrate its policies.  But so far, this pressure has left unmoved Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Read more here.

While Iran’s protests seem to have quieted down after the regime adopted a multi-pronged approach to cracking down, including mass imprisonment, scare tactics and savagery with allegations of rape and shooting at protesters’ eyes by Basij forces, death sentences, disinformation, and propaganda campaigns, analysis by Nezam-affiliated media outlets and research groups indicates another round of prot...

Concerned about participation in next year’s important elections for parliament and the Assembly of Experts, Bahonar advises the authorities to open up the system to criticism and allow people to protest legally. Read more here .

During this past week, a number of prominent moderates and traditional conservatives in Iran issued warnings about the direction the country is headed and the need to change course. Although we characterize the emerging debate as one between “moderates” and “hardliners,” we also might consider it a struggle between the revolution’s “old guard,” who helped pull down a tyrant who had lost the suppor...

Based on the statements that can be gleaned from official and semi-official sources, what can be said about China’s approach to economic development? How do Chinese policymakers view themselves and their place in the world, and how does this influence development policy alongside more pragmatic geostrategic concerns? Read more here .

The Iranian Nezam’s prickly sense of exceptionalism and contempt for its neighbors' sovereignty has long contributed to its isolation abroad. Now its increasingly exclusive definition of who is an “insider” fit to enjoy the privileges of citizenship in God’s government is isolating the Nezam from its own people. Read more here . 

The Nezam may be at an inflection point, and the political pendulum in Iran ready to swing closer to the center. But will it be too late? Even if, under pressure from the moderates, the administration of Ra’isi drops its more unreasonable demands and tries to reach a deal on the JCPOA, it may be trying to board a train that has left the station. Read more here . 

Concerns are rising about the destructive impacts of radicalism on the lives of the Iranian people. Still, the actions of the so-called super-revolutionaries may conveniently provide grounds for the return of moderate politicians to power. Read and listen more here .

Iran’s relations with the Western powers are in a downward spiral as Iran continues to assist Russia’s war in Ukraine, violate human rights wholesale at home, and issues intermittent squawks of triumph over its latest nuclear advance in violation of the JCPOA. Read more here . 

With Iranian relations with Afghanistan fraught with tensions over water rights and border clashes, and the American’s out of the picture, Chinese officials have taken the opportunity to appear statesman-like and downright humanitarian. Read more here .

One characteristic that sets the past four months of protests in Iran apart from previous episodes of civil unrest, is the Nezam’s muddled and at times inconsistent response to the challenge. Access the Weekly Newsletter here .