Paulitical Economy™

Americans are dining out less often. Traffic has been down eight months in a row. Yet Darden, owner of Olive Garden, is seeing same store sales accelerate. But not Wendy’s: US same store sales are accelerating downwards. They said that lower income consumers remain under pressure. And we take a look back. As financing costs go up, used car sales go down and loan losses go up. CarMax, the largest u...

Manufacturing in the US has been contracting for most of the last three years. Chipotle has a younger customer base that is struggling economically and thus eating at home more often. Its share price is down 47% this year. Starbucks comparable sales finally turn positive – just. Introducing the PM Loser Index. McDonald’s sales tick down a bit but still in positive territory. Traffic from low-incom...

All of a sudden a lot more companies are announcing layoffs. Things have significantly changed from when companies used to hoard employees just in case. A look back at Porsche. And sales are falling as their customers are feeling poorish. US inflation ticks up to its highest level in eight months with core inflation remaining well above the Fed’s 2% target. Which itself is a joke. Core inflation m...

A look at social security in the US. It will be insolvent within ten years in large part because deductions from payroll to pay for social security are consumed rather than invested. Krispy Kreme is experiencing consumer demand that is softer than their donuts. And a look back. Sales for Gucci and Yves St. Laurent are less bad. And they sign a new deal with L’Oreal. L’Oreal continues to grow its l...

Cheap funding has been the main cause of housing affordability crises. After two quarters of negative sales growth, luxury group LVMH creeps into positive territory. And after only one quarter of negative sales growth, Domino’s soars into positive growth territory. Amazing what happens when you improve your customer value proposition. Pepsi’s volume has declined for thirteen straight quarters. And...

Beer maker Constellation Brands’ sales and share price are going down faster than its beer.  US office vacancy rate ticked down from last year.  But is still over 25% in some Western cities.  When you buy a home the government assumes you’re paying rent to yourself and they add it to GDP making the economy look much stronger than it really is. Particularly if there’s a housing bubble.  Another rea...

PACCAR is one of the leading truck manufacturers in the U.S. A look back. New truck deliveries are down 13.5% from pre-COVID J.B. Hunt is one of America’s largest trucking companies and its sales growth has finally nudged into positive territory. And no, supply chain bottlenecks did not cause the inflation of 2022. UPS sales growth in the US returns to negative territory. But Fedex’s sales acceler...

Two thirds of American workers are now living paycheck to paycheck. And job prospects are the lowest in at least 12 years. Kellogg’s has had a long history and the company split into two separate businesses a couple of years ago. Now both of those businesses will be taken over by private companies. Sales for both are very weak. Lennar is one of America’s largest home builders. Its home prices are...

Tariffs are sending coffee prices soaring. A tax for American consumers with no benefit. Delta Airlines passenger revenue growth has been grinder lower for the last couple of years and is now flat: And now falling in economy class for two straight quarters. Lululemon has not grown comparable store sales in the US for a year and a half. And sales are accelerating downwards. The Canadian government...

We start by taking a look back at Heinz. And two decisions that ended their long-term relationship with McDonald’s. Healthcare costs for Canadian boomers are being subsidised by the next generation. As well as their retirement. Headline consumer price inflation in the US ticks up in August and core inflation remains elevated. And it was mainly due to services i.e. not tariffs. Headline wholesale i...

After seven straight quarters of sales declines, and fourteen quarters of declining volume, Kraft Heinz has announced that they will split up the company. The merger of the two companies back in 2016 has been a disaster. And we take a look back. Canadians are falling behind on their debt payments. Home prices in Canada have outpaced those in the US. It’s primarily due to money supply growth and lo...

49% of the homes sold in the US this year were under the price of $400,000 Up from 43% in 2023. Shooting deaths in New York City are at an all-time low. But shooting up is still a problem. Headline inflation in Canada excluding energy seems to be stabilising. But core inflation remains elevated. Canada’s income gap hits a record. The top 40% account for 66% of after-tax income. And 86% of net wort...

The Ford F-Series of pickup trucks have constantly been in the top six of cars sold going back to the 1960s. Pickup trucks now account for four of the top six. In the 2010s Japanese cars accounted for four of the top six. After experiencing two straight years of declining sales, Home Depot seems to be turning things around: slowly. Amazon continues its strong sales growth. Advertising and web serv...

Large movie chains in the US are outperforming the industry. And a look back at AMC Theatres. French luxury goods company LVMH sales are still falling. Especially in Japan. US renewable energy credits are going away. A Danish company is particularly impacted. A poll shows that a slight majority of Canadians want to see home prices fall. But the percentage of homeowners who want this is likely much...

McDonald’s turns things around. But lower income consumers are suffering. Caterpillar sales are still falling but not as much. A turnaround? But things not looking good at Gucci. RH (luxury furniture) has really turned things around. And some examples of their great corporate culture. Molson Coors no longer seems to be benefiting from the boycott of Bud Light. It’s share price is down 54% over the...

Starbucks is still seeing comparable store sales decline. But a fourth leg of their business is growing quickly. Chateau Lafite Rothschild is one of the world’s top wines. Its futures price is off 49% from its peak. Another look at the three main ways in which policymakers created Canada’s housing affordability crisis. They thought the benefits would trickle down to the next generation. Spoiler al...

General Motors has a long and interesting history. It has been hurt by tariffs, but sales did benefit as customers rushed to beat the tariffs. Women are twice as likely to be raped in the UK and Sweden than they are in the US. And a hundred times more likely than in Japan. Chipotle is a fast casual restaurant whose sales have been going in the wrong direction over the last year. A quick look back....

Prices in the US are rising with eggs leading the way. To the extents that tariffs are pushing up prices it should be a one-time hit. Unless tariffs rise even further. Core inflation in Japan is steadily rising. Inflation in Canada is proving sticky. In Financial Ructions: We look at longer-term rates which are rising. This should lead to higher mortgage costs. In our book review of The Way the Wo...

US booze companies see impact from tariffs. First positive and then negative. Nike has not grown its sales for seven straight quarters. And just experienced its largest sales decline so far. Cocoa bean prices are very volatile and near historic highs. A look at the world’s largest chocolate manufacturer. Hershey sales are suffering. As is its profitability as the high cocoa bean price bite. A look...

Florida is one of the weakest housing markets in America. But prices are still sky-high compared to pre-COVID Nationally, sellers outnumber buyers by half a million. Prices are falling in some areas, but even with prices falling many will remain priced out of the housing market. America’s largest home builder’s sales are accelerating downward. The issue is affordability constraints, but it’s not a...

Carnival continues to ride the wave of higher prices. General Mills sales are declining But would be a lot worse if not for their pet business. Yet, JM Smucker’s pet division had a double-digit sales decline. And a look back. Airliner JetBlue is seeing declines in air travel. Its share price has been a 25-year disaster. Student loan delinquencies in the US are soaring. And government workers have...

Campbell’s Soup sales are back in positive territory.  Restaurants getting so expensive people are eating more at home.  But not eating as many snacks.  Hudson’s Bay is being liquidated.  But its brands will live on.  The percentage of first-time home buyers in the US has plummeted.  It’s a result of deliberate policy.  The alcohol industry is still struggling.  Brown Forman, maker of Jack Daniel’...

The producers of alcoholic beverages say that the health concerns related to alcohol consumption are exaggerated. I hope so. Shoppers continue to flock to Costco. And investors to its common stock. Target, not so much. Home furnishings sales are down over 8%. In Financial Ructions: We look at a speech that John F. Kennedy made to the Economic Club of New York in 1962. Income taxes were finally bei...

Truck maker Paccar sales continue to fall. Freight shipments in the US are still down. A look at how tariffs impact trade: Lobsters. Petrol cars may not be going the way of the Dodo in California  after all. Both Home Depot and Lowe’s broke eight quarter losing streaks at the end of 2024 with sales finally back in positive territory. It only lasted a quarter. Inflation in Canada is rising again. O...