Outerblue

Talks will begin today, May 27, on the European Union’s (EU) seven-year budget and plans to fund the economic recovery following the coronavirus pandemic. France and Germany proposed a €500 billion European Union Recovery Fund, to be financed by debt issuance by the European Commission on behalf of the Union. Do the current multi-annual EU budget be achieved? What are the pros and cons to bear in...

The coronavirus is challenging the rules that underpin the way our economies and societies function and interact with each other. One could even advocate that the coronavirus has shattered our dominant corpus more massively than in 2008 in less than a month. Budgetary rules, public intervention, slowbalisation, deglobalisation, central banks role: these key words are discussed by Jean-Jacques Barb...

Outerblue introduces a new series of podcasts entitled “The Day After” where our experts share their thinking on what the long-term implications of the current, unprecedented crisis on the investment landscape could be. In this first episode, Pascal Blanqué, Amundi's Global CIO, highlights the key reasons why the current crisis could be the trigger for a regime shift that could, in the long run, l...

The pandemic outbreak altered the financial regime cycle in place at the end of 2019. Amundi now expects a contraction (central banks and governments support, recession, rising unemployment) followed by a recovery later in 2021 (economic activity retracing back but below 2019 levels, rising labour costs, cooling down monetary and governments actions), which would eventually land in a late cycle in...

The ECB displayed no limits in its policies and is keen to change its operational rules. The recovery fund framework still needs to be confirmed, especially on the mutualisation degree. Some countries request loans, others grants. Does this fund will be enough to restore some confidence among investors in the Eurozone? Which decisions from the credit ratings agencies can be expected? Monica Defend...

In terms of market pressure, the worst seems behind us concerning the emerging markets. Markets are appreciating the stimulus put in place around the world by central banks, the IMF and the World Bank. Deglobalisation process is in place with relocalisation of production at the same time. Which countries will be the most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic? What can be assessed in terms of EM debt?...

The pandemic hit the USA, now the new epicentre of the storm. Fiscal and monetary stimulus came fast and in huge volumes to support the economy. The recession is already priced by the US market but opportunities can be cought for long-term investors. Dominique Carrel-Billiard, Head of Institutional and Corporate clients division, takes the micro to interview Monica Defend, Global Head of Research...

Volatility will remain for a while in the equity and fixed income worlds. However, thanks to the action and coordination of central banks, massive debt issuance in Europe and in the US eased trading for both buying and selling sides. The Covid-19 crisis led to sector and rating fragmentations and liquidity management is the top priority concern. This new episode of Blue Convictions special Covid-1...

The world is now entirely racing for time against the Covid-19.Three cycles are under watch: the pandemic cycle, the financial cycle and the real economy cycle. This period constitutes a shift for investors where the virus exhorts returns back to their long and sustainable trends. The Fed adressed liquidity issues while the ECB will probably deepen its QE measures. Governments keep up with fiscal...

Jean-Jacques Barberis, Head of Institutional and Corporate clients coverage, speaks with Monica Defend, Global Head of Research, about the governments and central banks last decisions and measures to fight Covid-19 pandemy. What has to be monitored before the end of the week? What's happening in the markets right now? Listen to this second rdv of the Blue Convictions special Covid-19 series to fin...

Coordination of public authorities becomes essential in the economic and health crisis management. What are the measures already taken by governments? What action the ECB is ready to put in place? Why the market reacted negatively yesterday? Monica Defend, Global Head of Research, gives her macroeconomic views and analysis, especially on Christine Lagarde last speech.  --- DISCLAIMER: This podcast...

This first episode of Blue Research explains the key findings of the paper "ESG investing & equity asset pricing", freshly updated in 2020. Thierry Roncalli, Head of Quantitative Research, observes: a transatlantic divide between Europe and the USA a winning pillar: the social one, in terms of performance and returns a movement from static to dynamic of ESG investing, which becomes more and mo...

The shock in the markets is temporary and the main issue is on the credit side. Central banks mission includes stepping in when the markets conditions are tightening. There is room for manoeuvre, time is approaching to look at the situation with the lenses of opportunities. Gold and treasury remain safe heavens. The longevity of the virus and the recovery of the economic activity are the two key c...

The Super Tuesday happened to be in favour of the democratic candidate Joe Biden. Are we assisting to a split inside the Democratic Party between Biden and Sanders? What would be his program in 5 points? What is the USA reaction to coronavirus pandemy? Find the answers with Greg Valliere, Barron’s columnist, veteran non-partisan commentator on Washington developments and Ken Taubes, CIO of US Inve...

In this second episode of Blue Convictions, the impacts of coronavirus are discussed and analysed. The current shock is temporary and will lead to a rebound. Amundi monitors all signals daily to have a clear view on the path happening now, and understand when and how the economy will resume to normal activity. --- DISCLAIMER: This podcast is only for the attention of “Professional” investors as de...

DISCLAIMER: This podcast is only for the attention of “Professional” investors as defined in Directive 2004/39/EC dated 21 April 2004 on markets in financial instruments (“MIFID”), investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry. Views are subject to change and should not be relied upon as investment advice on behalf of Amundi. --- As the Brexit bill eventually p...

DISCLAIMER: This podcast is only for the attention of “Professional” investors as defined in Directive 2004/39/EC dated 21 April 2004 on markets in financial instruments (“MIFID”), investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry. Views are subject to change and should not be relied upon as investment advice on behalf of Amundi. -------- The January episode of Blu...