Odd Lots

By and large, American households are in a healthy economic position. Yes, unemployment has been rising, but it's still at fairly low levels. Consumer spending has held up well despite terrible sentiment. And many households are sitting on huge stock market gains and have a big home equity cushion. And yet, there are signs of trouble. Most notably, auto loan delinquencies have been surging to thei...

You probably already know someone doing peptides — the amino acids that form the basis of popular new drug treatments like Ozempic and Wegovy. Today there are peptides meant to help with everything from weight loss, to cellular regeneration, to improved eye contact while talking. In San Francisco, there are even organized “peptide raves.” Yet most of these underground peptides ha...

The politics of AI are already exploding. Whether we're talking about data centers, electricity prices, labor displacement, water consumption, competition with China, or users of chatbots becoming psychotically obsessed, AI is already a major topic in elections. And since there's so much money at stake, the industry is already spinning up super PACs and lobbying arms. Last month, it was reported t...

When we think about America’s economic rise, we usually point to agriculture or the industrial revolution. But in the early days of colonization, one of the biggest economic drivers wasn’t crops or factories — it was animal products. Deerskins were a booming trade that pushed hunters into new frontiers. In the early 1800s, beaver pelts became a fashion craze. And of course, later...

Most people think of venture capital as funding software startups or, these days, some new AI tool. But VC also plays a major role in developing new medicines and treatments. That’s the world of D.A. Wallach — though he didn’t start there. Before becoming a biotech investor, Wallach was the lead singer of the indie rock band Chester French. So how did he make the leap from music...

Data centers are weird things. They're partly real estate assets. They're partly extremely advanced technological products. And they have to find a way to consume a tremendous amount of electricity from the grid -- or they increasingly have their own power plants on site. And beyond that, they've become extremely controversial, with more and more communities pushing back on their development. So h...

In the years since the financial crisis, bond investors didn't get much return for taking on risk. With low interest rates and little sign of inflation, investors had to accept lower-quality assets to get any semblance of yield. Now that's changing according to Dan Ivascyn, the chief investment officer of Pimco, one of the biggest bond fund managers around. In this special 10-year anniversary epis...

Excel. If   you work in corporate America, that word either inspires laser-focused productivity or pure dread. Over the last 40 years, the spreadsheet software has become synonymous with the best — and worst — of late-stage capitalism. It’s seeped into popular culture and, along the way, made Microsoft one of the world’s most valuable companies. But in a world of AI an...

Max Levchin probably knows as much about online payments as anyone. He was part of the original " PayPal mafia " before going on to become co-founder and CEO of Affirm, the $22 billion player in the Buy Now, Pay Later industry that's hoping to disrupt the incumbent credit card companies. While BNPL is booming, there is still a lot of confusion about how it works, how it makes money, and how transp...

There have been some wobbles in credit markets lately. It hasn't been too dramatic, but we've had some blowups, leading Jamie Dimon to speculate about the presence of other "cockroaches" lurking in the industry. But what do we actually know about the quality and practices of credit underwriting right now? Dan Wertman is the co-founder and CEO of Noetica, a startup that uses AI to scan deal documen...

There's an incredible amount of focus on the grid this days. That's notable because for a long time, the grid was hardly of any interest. For years, load growth was flat. It was a sleepy market. And in fact, because it was sleepy, regulators and politicians and private companies started focusing on phasing out the dirtier parts of energy production. Now things have flipped. Prices are on the rise....

Some people pay off their credit cards at the end of each month. They use the cards as a payment method and collect points and rewards, and never have to pay any interest. For other users, interest can be sky high — way higher than what would be expected simply based on a user's credit or default risk. Why is this? And how do credit card companies get away with charging interest at these lev...

The US and China are in a "Thucydides Trap," whereby the risk of war is heightened when an established power is threatened by a rapidly rising power. This is the framework that's been popularized by Graham Allison, the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University. Professor Allison has been writing about China and the US-China relationship for decades. He's been focused on the grow...

You're not imagining it. This really is a moment of tremendous historical change. Various forces are all aligned right now and reshaping how the world operates. That's the view of Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Capital, the world's biggest hedge fund. While  Odd Lots  has been around for 10 years, Dalio ran Bridgewater for an extraordinary five decades, so he's the perfect person...

Here’s a preview of another podcast we enjoy, Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova. Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. Hosted by journalist and psychologist Maria Konnikova and data analyst and election forecaster Nate Silver, who both happen to be accomplished high-stakes poker players, the show explores how we navigate uncertainty in politics,...

The country's cattle herd has shrunk to its smallest size in decades and beef prices have been soaring this year, with hamburgers and steaks becoming the latest flashpoints in the political debate over higher food prices. In this episode, we untangle the roots of declining domestic beef supply — from drought and surging feed costs to the lasting impact of consolidation in the meatpacking ind...

In early November, it looked like almost a sure thing that the Federal Reserve would cut rates. Since then, the odds have come in dramatically, as a number of FOMC members have been talking about persistent inflationary pressures. One such voice has been Susan Collins, the president of the Boston Fed. On this episode, she explains her thinking as to why, right now, she's more concerned about infla...

In many respects, AI technology is already mind-blowing, and can perform many tasks far better than the average person. And yet by and large, its impact has been hard to detect. We haven't seen some huge labor displacement, for example. There's nothing dramatic yet happening in the productivity data. So when will the impact really start to be felt? On this episode, we speak with Tyler Cowen, a pro...

AI wasn't much of a topic in the 2024 election. But it will almost certainly be big in 2028, and probably even the 2026 midterms. There are concerns about all the money being spent and whether a federal backstop or bailout will be necessary one day. There are the concerns about energy use and electricity prices. There are concerns about labor displacement. And there are concerns about whether we c...

Stocks are overpriced. Bonds are overpriced. And private assets are a powder keg. This is the view of Jeffrey Gundlach, the founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital. As part of our 10-year anniversary celebration of the Odd Lots podcast, we've been talking to some big names in markets and economics to get a sense of how they see the world and what's changed in recent years. One major change, obviousl...

According to Dirk Willer, the Global Head of Macro Strategy at Citigroup, we are definitely in bubble territory. Per his research, the stock market has been in a bubble since May. Unlike many people, whose definitions of bubbles are a bit more vague or a bit more based on sentiment, Dirk's work focuses on precise timing and price indicators that distinguish bubbles from mere booms. Furthermore, he...

In recent weeks, there's been renewed anxiety about the sustainability of the AI boom. This is partly due to comments from OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar about a possible role for a government backstop in the AI infrastructure build out. We've also seen the stock market wobble, with many major tech names hit hard. But even with all these concerns, we continue to see new announcements all the time. Just th...

The Odd Lots podcast has been around for 10 years. Unfortunately, markets have gotten less rational over the same time frame. At least this is the contention of Cliff Asness, the co-founder and CEO of AQR Capital Management, a quantitative investing firm that's been around for nearly three decades. Asness' approach to investing is rooted in academic theory, having studied under the legendary Eugen...

AI has made a lot of people fabulously wealthy. But sorry, it's probably not going to be the thing that makes you rich. And if history is any guide, we don't even know who the real AI winners are going to be. That's the thesis from longtime Venture Capitalist (now retired) Jerry Neumann. Earlier this year, Neumann published an article, "AI Will Not Make You Rich," putting the AI boom in the contex...

Land is a weird asset. We need it to be affordable because everyone needs somewhere to live. But for many people, real estate is also their biggest store of wealth — a kind of national piggybank that fuels both personal fortunes and broader economies. Nowhere is that tension sharper than in China, where housing affordability remains a major challenge even as real estate has been a huge drive...