Odd Lots

The world of startup investing has undergone massive transformations amid the AI boom, changing capital markets, and an intense degree of competition from new entrants into the space. So what does it take to succeed in venture capital? How does an investor know if they have what it takes? On this episode, recorded in San Francisco, we speak with Nina Achadjian, a partner at Index Ventures. She tal...

One of the minor culture wars in America has to do with electric stoves. To some, they're more energy efficient and better for air quality. To others, electric stove requirements represent government overreach, and a loss of freedom to use a gas range. Impulse Labs wants to change the whole conversation. The company produces an induction stove — very different than most electric stoves &mdas...

Geothermal is a promising technology to provide clean, low-cost, baseload power to the electricity grid. It works by getting heat from deep in the ground, using technology that is similar to that used in fracking. Despite this potential, however, geothermal still remains a very small percentage of the US power mix. So what will it take for it to scale up? One big challenge is the core problem of f...

You can do a lot of things with the click of a button nowadays. You can get insurance, open a bank account, or trade 347 different stocks all at once via an ETF. But one thing you definitely can't do via a single click, is refinance your mortgage. In fact, securing a mortgage still requires reams of paperwork -- a lot of which has to be physically mailed to all the different parties involved. So w...

AI software and the hardware that enables it have been hugely popular investments this year. But there have still been limiting factors on the sector, including a shortage of compute to power so many new start-ups. Investors don't want to finance companies that lack a signed contract for compute, and compute providers don't want to sign contracts for startups that haven't already secured funding....

In the 2010s, we saw an incredible boom in the venture capital space, fueled in part by cheap capital as well as cheap compute. Fast forward to today, and many things look very different. We're not in the ZIRP era anymore. And computing power has become a scarce resource, particularly when it comes to AI. So how do things look different today from the perspective of a veteran venture capitalist? I...

For years, investors have relied on the classic 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds. The idea behind this was simple: bonds tend to go up when stocks go down, so the two things should act as a natural hedge. But when inflation spiked in 2022 and 2023, the 60/40 portfolio performed terribly and bonds failed to act as a safety cushion. In this episode, we speak with Nouriel Roubini, chief economist...

It's trite to say that there is a high degree of uncertainty right now, for macro forecasters and investors. It also happens to be true. The new administration is promising major policy changes in areas like tariffs, immigration, and the size and scope of government. But even beyond that, there is near-term uncertainty over the outlook for the labor market and inflation. Furthermore, we're in an e...

The election of Donald Trump, with his promise of more tariffs and a much tighter stance on immigration is a source of major macro uncertainty. To some it marks the end of a certain neoliberal consensus about globalization, and the pre-eminent role played by financial markets. According to today's guest, we're at the beginning of a long, turbulent period that may not be resolved for two decades to...

When it comes to credit investing (or really any investing), there's an analytic art in deciding the right price to pay for a security. But often that's only part of the challenge. First you need someone to want to sell it to you. In something like public-market equity, this usually isn't hard. Liquidity is deep, and the "ask" price is well known. In something like private credit, it's much tricki...

In the Zirp era of the mid-2010s, credit markets were booming and investors were clamoring for anything that would produce yield. So they were willing to accept fewer legal protections embedded in bond and loan documentation if it meant they could get a slice of a juicy deal. Today, the proliferation of these so-called "cov-lite" deals has been coming back to haunt the market, with investors now f...

For years, the Harvard Endowment has easily been the largest endowment of any university. But as of right now, it's at risk of losing its crown to the University of Texas. So what happened? It's a combination of things including organizational tumult, external controversies over the university, controversy about the endowment's model itself, and other factors. And of course, Texas has unique tailw...

How did China become the economic behemoth that it is today? One pivotal moment was, obviously, it's ascension into the WTO. Prior to that, the era of reform under Deng Xiaoping was obviously crucial. But obviously no single event or turning point can really tell the story. In a groundbreaking new book -- The Great Transformation: China’s Road from Revolution to Reform --  historians Odd Arne West...

After his victory, Donald Trump announced that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy would be leading up a new Department of Government Efficiency in order to crack down on wasteful, fraudulent spending inside the federal government. Setting aside the question of how effective this particular endeavor will be, the basic premise of cracking down on waste and going after fraudsters should generally be non-c...

In the final episode of our special three-part series exploring the US economy through the chicken industry, we’re taking a look at market competition. Chicken in the US is dominated by a handful of huge poultry processors. But new technologies,  like algorithmic pricing, are also leading to accusations of anticompetitive corporate behavior that can potentially create bad outcomes for both consume...

The Odd Lots team is analyzing the US economy through the lens of chicken. In this second episode of our special three-part series, we look at the birds themselves and the people who farm them. Because the way we actually get chicken has changed a lot over the years, with the industry evolving from backyard birds to huge poultry companies that outsource chicken growing to independent contractors....

Everybody loves chicken. And, it turns out, that this humble bird can tell us quite a lot about the way the world works. In this three-part series, the Odd Lots team is exploring some of the thorniest issues facing the US economy, through the medium of chicken. In this first episode, we’re looking at chicken from the consumer side. Why do we love it so much? What goes into the price of something l...

Last week the Federal Reserve opted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was what the market expected it to do. But things get more uncertain from here on out. Inflation has been softening this year, but there’s a sense that this trend could turn — especially with the Trump administration coming in after the new year. All of this raises the question of what the Fed does next, and how it...

In this limited series, Odd Lots explains some of the thorniest issues facing the US economy through the medium of … chicken. Chicken occupies a unique position in the US diet, but issues facing the poultry industry illustrate wider points about the development of the US economy and the decisions being made about how it's structured and who benefits from it. So why has the chicken industry evolved...

Over the last roughly 15 years, we've seen a migration of certain types of risks outside of regulated deposit-taking banks. Private credit has boomed, shifting lending activity away from the banks. Multi-strategy hedge funds have scooped up a lot of the proprietary trading activity that was banned under the Volcker Rule. On paper, this looks good. It seems like various risks have been removed to l...

There was a a point in time when Twitter used to be good for breaking news. Social media outlets like Instagram and Facebook were great for keeping up with friends. There used to be websites that people would refresh throughout the day, reading news or gossip from sources they knew and trusted. Now, most of that has gone -- or at least changed dramatically. A combination of profit imperatives, pol...

The US election is over and Donald Trump has won a second term as president. Stocks have rallied on Trump's win, of course, but some of the more interesting moves have taken place in the bond market. Not only have yields on US Treasuries shot up, but expectations for volatility in the world's most important market were also shifting higher ahead of Trump's win. All of this is happening even though...

It's Election Day in the US, so there's no need for any real explanation of what's at stake. Last night in New York City, we hosted a special live Odd Lots event, where we interviewed some of our regular guests on stage to talk about the vote, as well as the economic and market implications in the days and years ahead — regardless of who wins. First up, you'll hear a conversation about prediction...

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The Biden administration has overseen a revival of so-called industrial policy in a way that we haven't seen in years. Major efforts are underway to revive or reinvigorate US production of semiconductors, batteries, and other key technologies. But it's not clear if these efforts will have any legs and sustain a new trajectory of US policymaking. Was it just a blip? Or does this represent a new era...