NonTrivial

AI is a promising and inevitable technology. But today’s AI is too brittle to trust fully, and without trust we cannot push the needle on AI progress. So, must we wait around until AI is good enough before we can truly trust it? I argue that we have to trust AI before it can make the next great leap in intelligence. This has to do with the fact that genuine intelligence works via flawed people wor...

We define a thing’s value by its characteristics; what it does and doesn’t do. But a thing cannot adequately be defined outside its environment. There are countless dependencies that make a thing, a thing. We need to shift our focus “up” to a more holistic level if we are to move levers that produce positive outcomes. This is because nature chooses what survives by operating on parameters that for...

Economists are known for attempting to treat economics like a genuine science. But upon closer inspection it becomes obvious that their methods are quite outdated. As a consequence, most of today's economists are providing an extremely naive "understanding" of our economy, and worse, damaging society's ability to improve people's lives.  In this episode I'll use Eric...

We've looked at one side of the equation, the changes we put in place at the societal level to possibly solve the gun problem in America. But what about the individuals who commit crimes in the first place? Is there something deeper to the gun problem that is making America the so-called "country of homicides"? Is there a higher moral standard or philosophy society is missing that m...

The gun debate is one of America’s most polarized issues. Large mass shootings always bring this debate to the forefront, eliciting strong emotions from both sides of the aisle. Many believe the answer is stricter gun laws, while others see this as government overreach and believe average citizens can better protect themselves by keeping and bearing arms. I argue that neither of these choices are...

NonTrivial is of course free for all listeners, but I do offer bonus content to my Patreon subscribers. I'm publishing this week's bonus talk for free so regular listeners can get a taste of what this additional content sounds like. Enjoy. Given today’s networked economy, with its extreme wealth disparity, many wonder how they can contribute. How does one not get discouraged by the conce...

Many argue that the internet has destroyed more jobs than it’s created, and that as such our information economy has obliterated the middle class. The common “solution” proposed for this problem is to create systems that pay users for their data. If you join Twitter or Facebook (Meta) then you should somehow be compensated since it’s your data that make these companies successful. This is the argu...

In part II of Imprecise Destinations we continue our look at democracy by discussing so called "monitory democracy" as it exists today. We'll see both its strengths and weaknesses, and lead into some ultimate questions about the universality of democracy going forward. I end the episode with a look into how we can mathematically model democracy and play around with some scenarios on...

In this episode I take a look at the topic of democracy. Using John Keane's book The Life and Death of Democracy I show that the usual Western narratives we've been taught about democracy fall short of reality.  I discuss the many contributions to assembly and representation that came to us from a variety of societies throughout history, and challenge the perhaps quixotic picture many of...

In this episode I take a look at leadership, specifically the idea of the “strong” leader. Those individuals who stand by their convictions, and dominate the room with their charisma and commanding attitudes. These are often the people we gravitate towards when we see them on screen giving their speeches. These are the people we often help bring to power.  But history shows that it’s often the cal...

In this episode I look at the "delusions" that happen when a large number of people get together in groups. We'll explore a number of prominent economic bubbles and end-of-times cults to reveal the core properties of groups that lead to mania. I discuss the Terra Luna collapse as a recent example, explore human biases, and ultimately show that the so-called "delusions" tha...

In this episode I take a look at the sordid history of the library. The library has been a beacon of knowledge, and a marker of civilization for hundreds of years. But the library’s journey from the scriptoriums of medieval monasteries to massive cultural institutions like The Library of Congress has been perilous.  This is a journey that touches on many modern concerns we have around information,...

David Deutsch, in his book, The Beginning of Infinity, argues that “good” explanations are how knowledge grows, and thus good explanations are what lead to progress. Deutsch believes that the Enlightenment was only possible because of Western society’s quest for good explanations. As such, Deutsch believes quite optimistically that humanity’s ability to “cure all evils” has infinite reach, as long...

In this episode I talk about the role that magic, superstition, irrationality has played in human progress, specifically the so-called Enlightenment. I will use the life of Paracelsus, the Swiss physician, alchemist and lay theologian of the German Renaissance, as an exemplar of one who paved the way for progress, yet believed wholeheartedly in things that today we would not associate with intelle...

The way we normally think of technology is as an extension of what humans do in the absence of technology. Technology extends our eyes, ears and muscles, and also our memories and even our thinking. But in this episode I argue that technology and humanity are actually one in the same; that technology is not an extension of humanity but rather an integral, and inevitable, part of human evolution. I...

In this episode I talk about systems that reach out into their environment for new resources, but are unable to backfill their growth with sustainability. This is a common pattern throughout many fields of science, but is perhaps less recognized in other areas, such as business. I will show how the infamous WeWork fiasco of 2019 was a manifestation of this pattern in the world of business and VC i...

Now that we’ve discussed many of the core patterns at the intersection of science, complexity and philosophy, I want to showcase how these patterns play out across countless areas in life. To do this, I’ll be taking NonTrivial on a slightly different path where I plan on discussing a new book each week. It won’t be a review of the book as much as showcasing how deep and familiar patterns are occur...

In this episode I talk about the current paradigm of science, and challenge it, by arguing that much of today's science is not growing knowledge over time, contrary to what most people assume. That while science keeps saying more, it only does so by explaining less. Support the show Become a Member at dekyon.io/seanmcclure/nontrivial Premium members get access to the full member app. This inc...

In this episode I talk about snowballs, more specifically, the runaway process that happens when we take an action we think is confined to that instance but ends up becoming something so much bigger. We're all familiar with this process, but I want to peel back its nature and expose its underlying mechanisms in order to truly understand how it works. In doing this, I believe we can better app...

In this episode I discuss how the only way to become good at anything is to start at the end, acting as though we already know how to do the thing. By placing ourselves directly into real-world environments related to the challenge, we are forced to rise to the occasion and inevitably learn the skill, achieve the objective, accomplish the goal. We are creatures of adaptation, and as such, the only...

In this episode I discuss how the best preparation is no preparation. I will argue that despite its paradoxical nature there is deep truth to this idea, founded on how information accumulates over time. I will argue that the ongoing effort to solve problems in the moment leads to superior competence relative to that which we get from planning. I'll discuss how preparation creates brittle depe...

In this episode I discuss how detailed knowledge falls short, and how high-level thinking is a far superior way to make sense of the world and solve real problems. I'll discuss how the abstraction inherent in high-level thinking is what brings us into the environments where real problems exist, and how the only detailed knowledge worth having is that which comes after we've solved the pr...

In this episode I argue that the detailed patterns we study cannot be used as the basis for improving things. The inspection of bird's wings does not lead to human flight, the admiration of a wise man's character traits cannot tell you how to achieve inner peace, and the government's preoccupation with desired outcomes cannot be used to direct funding, and other examples. It's...

In this episode I talk about penny-pinching, which I take to mean any kind of nit-picking or hyper-detailed behavior, that I argue leads to bad long-term outcomes. Penny-pinching is when we try to use all the information available to weigh pros and cons, and make some informed decision as how to best act. I will argue that while this might make us feel better in the moment, and sound smart to othe...

In this episode I'll be challenging the idea that human progress owes its advancement to the efforts of a few, that society has progressed by riding the coattails of giants; those individuals that history tells us made the greatest contributions. While the narrative that so-called geniuses contribute far more than others seems to make sense, does it hold up to what we know about how problems...