Nobody Special Finance

Bitcoin is down this morning as the market begins to question the certainty of a Federal Reserve Rate cut in September after questionable PPI and Jobs data. Elsewhere Russian banks appear to be under stress and have begun rejecting nearly all loan applications. This comes roughly a month after a Bloomberg article suggesting Russian bank may soon be asking for government bailouts due to bad loans....

Shares of Intel are ripping this morning after the story broke late yesterday that the Trump Administration is considering taking an ownership stake in the company. This unusual move follows recent decisions where the federal govt took a stake in US Steel along with rare earth producer MP Materials and even the strange story of the export tax on Nvidia chip sales to China. Support the Channel on P...

The Producer Price Index came in sharply higher than the market was expecting this morning much to the chagrin of investors who were previously euphoric about the prospect of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September. Now expectations are being reset as the divergence between PPI and CPI have caused uncertainty. Support the Channel on Patreon: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠...

The price of silver is rallying this morning despite no news specific to the white metal and matching move in gold. Elsewhere shares of Coreweave are down sharply this morning after announcing earnings that disappointed investors. Support the Channel on Patreon: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.patreon.com/NobodySpecialFinance⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠...

Headline inflation came in just slightly below expectations this morning, but that was enough to send the market higher as there was nothing new in the data that would preclude the Fed from cutting rates in September. Support the Channel on Patreon: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.patreon.com/NobodySpecialFinance⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠...

Nvidia and AMD have reportedly reached a deal with the Trump administration to allow AI chips to be exported to China in exchange for paying the government 15% of revenue. The chips had previously been restricted on national security grounds. Support the Channel on Patreon: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.patreon.com/NobodySpecialFinance⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠...

The gold market was thrown into chaos yesterday when the US Customs and Border Patrol issued a letter to a Swiss refiner clarifying that gold bars would be subject to reciprocal tariffs of 39%. This has caught traders off guard and triggered a wave of buying in London as shorts look to cover. Elsewhere President Trump has nominated White House Economic Advisor Stephen Miran as interim Federal Rese...

President Trump announced 100% tariffs on chips sold into the United States yesterday during a dog and pony show with Apple CEO Tim Cook. Moments later he carved out pretty much everyone from having to pay them. Elsewhere, President Trump's reciprocal tariffs go into effect today and The President is expected to sign an executive order allowing real estate, private assets, and crypto in 401K p...

Two Chinese nationals were arrested in California for smuggling Nvidia GPUs into China in violation of US export controls. That thing that isn't happening just happened again. Let's take a look at this Chinese front company, ALX Solutions Inc, along with some of the other players involved and see just how obvious it is that these are criminals despite AI hardware companies like Nvidia and...

We had a double miss from the AI minor leagues yesterday with both AMD and Supermicro Computer reporting disappointing results. At the same time, OpenAI is reportedly attempted to raise money in a secondary offering at a staggering $500B valuation. Support the Channel on Patreon: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.patreon.com/NobodySpecialFinance⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠...

Software maker Palantir released earnings that blew away estimates citing "Astonishing AI Impact." Despite the exception growth, the stock is now trading at a seemingly psychotic multiple 400X revenue. Elsewhere there are earnings reports from names such as Caterpillar, Yum brands, Marriot, and Molson Coors that together paint a picture of consumers cutting back to make ends meet. Support the Chan...

The July Jobs Report was an unmitigated disaster and President Trump has fired the head of the BLS as a result of it. This is after a recent revelation from Apollo that nearly 1/3 of the Consumer Price Index is basically educated guessing and not actual measurements. So what happens when the two most important pieces of economic instrumentation stop working? Support the Channel on Patreon: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠...

To call the July Nonfarm Payrolls report a disaster would be to put it mildly. The economy added just 73K jobs vs 110K expected. But the real disaster is the downward revisions to June and May that nearly wiped out all previously reported job gains. A combined 258K previously announced gains were revised away in the blink of an eye. Elsewhere the market was already reeling from yesterday's tar...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell came out swinging at the FOMC yesterday, striking a hawkish tone in defiance of President Trump's demands for lower rates. Meanwhile Microsoft and Meta both posted big earnings beats thus renewing their license to burn investors cash on Capex. Elsewhere, we're drinking from the proverbial firehose of tariff related news this morning. Support the Channel on Patreon:...

President Trump just announced 25% tariffs on India while also leaving the door open to additional levies tied to India's purchase of Russian oil and arms. Meanwhile the August 1st deadline looms for pretty much everyone else and there is still no confirmation from President Trump regarding the possibility of extended the truce with China by another 90 days. Failure to do so would see a return...

Earnings season is in full stride this morning and there is a parade of sloppy earnings hitting the tape but the market is focused on big tech earnings that begin tomorrow. Support the Channel on Patreon: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.patreon.com/NobodySpecialFinance⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Support the Channel by B...

The United States and The European Union reached a tentative agreement to avert escalation in the trade war this weekend that includes tariffs, energy, and arms. This comes ahead of a jam-packed week of corporate earnings and economic data. Support the Channel on Patreon: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.patreon.com/NobodySpecialFinance⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠...

Shares of chipmaker Intel is getting trounced this morning after the company reported it's 6th consecutive quarterly loss and announced massive cost cutting measures including cancelled plant projects and thousands of layoffs. Support the Channel on Patreon: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.patreon.com/NobodySpecialFinance⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠...

Google posted an impressive quarter showing worries about search were overblown and cloud growth continued but that enthusiasm was tempered by an unexpected increase in capex. Tesla missed across the board and the stock is paying for it. Also breaking news this morning: United Health has confirmed that the company is under investigation by the DOJ over Medicare billing practices. Support the Chann...

President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan yesterday that is making waves in both stocks and bonds. Automakers are rallying on the reduction in auto tariffs and the Japanese bond market saw a rather disastrous 40 year auction following the announcement. Elsewhere the results of the annual PJM Capacity Auction shows that datacenters gobbling up all available power on the grid is about to mak...

Yesterday saw a series of headlines suggesting President Trump and Republicans are seriously considering an attempt to remove Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called for an investigation into cost overruns at the Fed's building refurbishment and GOP Rep Luna took the drastic step of issuing a criminal referral on Powell to the DOJ. Elsewhere a WSJ report yesterd...

The European Union is scrambling to secure a trade deal with the US prior to the August 1st deadline while simultaneously preparing a retaliation package in the event a deal can't be reached. Elsewhere automaker Stellantis posted a surprisingly big loss following the cancellation of a hydrogen joint venture and a hit from President Trump's tariffs. Keep one eye on Japan. Support the Channe...

Earnings season continues to show pockets of strength in the economy with American Express earnings beating expectations this morning thank largely to wealthy consumers spending more. Elsewhere Netflix beat earnings after last year's price hikes allowed for margin expansion. Support the Channel on Patreon: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.patreon.com/NobodySp...

Bob Coleman, the CEO of Idaho Armored Vaults, joins me to talk about the dramatic divergence between the paper market for silver, where a short squeeze appears to be playing out, and the physical market were inventories are overflowing and dealers are desperate for cash. Subscribe to the HWPY Hour Podcast on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@HWPYHOUR Follow Bob Coleman on Twitter(x): https://x.com...

With yesterday's Senate vote to codify roughly $9B of DOGE cuts into law, the US congress is now halfway to making the largest recission to government spending in history: $9 Billion. That's enough to fund the federal government for about 11 hours. This is just days after raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion. Support the Channel on Patreon: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠...