Ninety One | The Big Picture

Resources prices and the value of producers’ shares are being pushed and pulled by a variety of complex factors, both self-made and external. In an interview last week, George Cheveley shares insights gained from conferences abroad, where he has been both a speaker and delegate. He pays particular attention to gold, a metal that has recently regained some of its lustre. Hosted on Acast. See acast....

The investment world was recently rocked by a bank failure. It was a niche bank but nonetheless important, as its demise highlights the impact of repeated and rapid rate rises. Iain Cunningham explains why this may be the beginning of a problem, not the end. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

For decades an inverted yield curve has unerringly predicted recession in the US and beyond. The margin between the 2-year and the 10-year bonds in the US is around 100 basis points, so despite robust economic data, the future is uncertain. Last week Philip Saunders discussed the theory and implications for the global economy.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information...

International Energy Week used to be ‘Petroleum’ week. The need for these companies to be the drivers of the energy transition is paramount, but the transition is not an overnight process. Tom Nelson explains the importance of the transition from the old hydrocarbon energy world to a new green revolution, but also emphasises that the process must be managed carefully by the producers, and monitore...

Predictions of the demise of inflation were seemingly premature after key releases from the US and UK recently. Will it remain ‘sticky’ and thus keep interest rates elevated? Iain Cunningham analyses the fundamentals, the inverted rate curve and the implications for the world’s economic growth. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It’s Budget Day 2023 and SA is on tenterhooks. In the conclusion to Enoch Godongwana’s speech, the word ‘bold’ appears twice. The question is how bold he can be given a subdued economic outlook and the embedded structural weaknesses that are all too familiar. However, the markets were cautiously optimistic in response. Sisamkele Kobus discusses. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more info...

The world’s largest mining investment conference recently concluded in Cape Town, with sustainability at the heart of the next wave of new exploration. In South Africa, three nagging problems linger, as Annika Brouwer explains.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The recession-predictor pundits are stoic in their belief that the US is already in, or will be soon in the midst of an economic downturn. However, recent PMI and jobs data show that the world’s largest economy is defiantly robust. Jason Borbora-Sheen puts froward the case for a recession, but not yet. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Three central banks opened their envelopes last week, but they held little surprise as the contents were well communicated in advance. Russell Silberston argues that investors should look beyond the February meetings to those occurring in March, when things will get interesting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

2022 was the year the bond markets broke, forcing a fundamental rethink of defensive investment strategies. John Stopford believes a nimble approach to investing is essential. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Semiconductors are integral to the products we use in everyday life. They are even at the centre of global political disputes. Some predict the industry will be worth over US$1 trillion by 2030, given an ever-increasing demand for chips, and therefore, from an investment perspective, it’s important to remain on top of developments. To this end, the Ninety One Quality team sat down for a deep dive...

Valuations reset in 2022. Equity prices fell, while cash rates and bond yields rose. As the risk premium returns to more sensible levels, opportunities are beginning to emerge. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A turbulent year has increased the opportunities for companies that are helping the world transition away from fossil fuels and use energy more efficiently. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Assets are flowing into ESG funds, but investors need to choose carefully because the ‘sustainable’ label still covers a very wide range of investment approaches. Nazmeera Moola, our Chief Sustainability Officer discusses.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Fear was a key driving force of investor behaviour in 2022. This resulted in some major dislocations of asset prices relative to fundamentals. Active investors should look to harness these, explain Werner Gey van Pittius, Victoria Harling and Archie Hart. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The consequences of years of super-loose monetary policy are coming to a head. Times of culmination – when markets reap the harvest of seeds sown sometimes long before – can be perilous. But they can also present opportunities for investors. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Market participants, so used to inflation surprises to the upside, were caught off guard when the latest US data came in below expectations. A startling risk asset class rally ensued. Jason Borbora-Sheen analyses the data, the likely reaction from the Fed, and also warns of being too enthusiastic on the back of one data point.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sometimes South Africa is justifiably negatively regarded but on other occasions perception distorts reality. Malcolm Charles uses the bond market to illustrate this phenomenon and set out his outlook for SA fixed income assets.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Anastasia Guha, Global Head of Sustainable Investment at Redington, helps dissect this conundrum and shares her views on the most important factors investors must be thinking about. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Britain is facing an economic and socio-economic crisis brought about by global events, but also of its own making. Investment Strategist Russell Silberston expertly analyses the situation, leaning on his 40-year career to see what lessons we can take from the past.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Fed and the Bank of England have both raised rates while warning of more to come. Russell Silberston analyses the economic and market implications in conversation with Lindsay Williams.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Commodities as an aggregated price index nearly tripled from the beginning of the pandemic to earlier this year. There has been a pullback, but is it a pause or a new trend? And are commodities economic leaders or laggards? George Cheveley analyses the current market in discussion with Lindsay Williams. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Predictions of the demise of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency have been debunked as the greenback soars to double-decade highs. The implications are far reaching for the global economy, but also for portfolio construction. Philip Saunders analyses the current environment in conversation with Lindsay Williams Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Outflows from Chinese equities have been persistent through 2021 and much of 2022. Investors have struggled with near-term dynamics from COVID, a weak real estate market and fresh regulations. This has driven valuations to their cheapest level since 2019. For long-term investors, portfolio manager Wenchang Ma sees six reasons why you should revisit the investment case for Chinese equities. Hosted...

For something that cannot be directly observed, and changes through time, the neutral level of interest rates generates an awful lot of debate, says Strategist Russell Silberston. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.