Net Assessment

Melanie, Zack, and Chris, survey the course of Russia's brutal war of aggression in Ukraine at the one-year point, with a focus on a recent paper by RAND's Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe. How did we get here? What key assumptions have been tested? And what does that mean for the future? How do U.S. and Ukrainian interests in this war align or conflict? Does a long war serve anyone's interest? An...

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate Frank Hoffman's recent article in War on the Rocks about the broader implications of Russia's war in Ukraine. They discuss whether defensive systems are dominant and how long Russia will take to recapitalize its forces, as well as what this means for future conflicts and U.S. posture globally. Chris warns that the United States is not learning from past conflicts, M...

Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to talk about a new assessment of President Biden's foreign policy two years into his administration. Using "A Better Biden Doctrine" by Stephen Wertheim and Matthew Duss as the foundation, the team looks at how well Biden has kept the foreign policy promises he made on the campaign trail, whether he has made incremental or fundamental changes, and what he mig...

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss whether it is possible, and wise, to try to stave off a conflict with China over Taiwan — possibly for a very long time. A recent article by Jude Blanchette and Ryan Hass urges policymakers to find ways to forestall conflict. But is it a mistake to presume that conflict with China is avoidable? Should the United States make peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait...

Melanie , Chris, and Zack debate nuclear proliferation in Northeast Asia. Are Russia's nuclear saber-rattling, North Korea's advancing capabilities, and China's nuclear modernization program likely to spur additional nuclear proliferation? How satisfied are South Korea and Japan with current U.S. nuclear extended deterrence guarantees? And what should policymakers in Washington do in response to q...

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to discuss Richard Fontaine's recent Foreign Affairs  article on prioritizing national security threats. Why is it so hard for those in charge of the nation's security to pick and stick to the most important national security priorities? How should the United States determine where scarce resources are allocated? If China is the nation's main challenge, can the Un...

Chris, Melanie, and Zack try to understand the U.S. government's approach to global trade. Two successive presidential administrations have turned their backs on trade liberalization, and there is little enthusiasm in Congress for free trade – and a fair amount of outright hostility. For all the talk of "friendshoring" and building resilient supply chains, Washington's allies and partners seem mos...

Is the National Defense Strategy actually a strategy? Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate the Biden administration's recently released National Defense Strategy. Do integrated deterrence, campaign, and enduring advantage add up to more than the sum of their parts? Does the unclassified version of the National Defense Strategy make any hard choices to connect ends and means? Melanie commends those U.S....

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about the recently-released Biden-Harris National Security Strategy. Several months delayed, the document recognizes that the United States is in an intense competition with China and asserts that Washington will look for ways to cooperate with both allies and adversaries on important global challenges such as climate change. Does the NSS assess the threat...

Chris, Zack, and special guest host Rachel Hoff of the Ronald Reagan Institute, explore the recent article by Dani Rodrik and Stephen Walt "How to Build a Better Order: Limiting Great Power Rivalry in an Anarchic World." Rodrik and Walt propose a framework — or "meta-regime" — that affirms well-established norms of international behavior (as enshrined in the U.N. Charter, for example), while also...

The Net Assessment crew discusses possible military lessons from the war in Ukraine. It is too early to take away any definitive lessons from the war, but it is possible to start identifying and asking some key questions. Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate recent work by Rob Lee and others about why Russia's army, air force, and cyber capabilities have proven so ineffective. Chris also asks why the N...

This week, Chris, Zack, and Melanie talk about a new report, " Rebuild: Toolkit for a New American Industrial Policy ," from the Center for a New American Security. The United States government has a number of ways to intervene in the economy to advance the national interest. The use of tariffs and the Defense Production Act by the last two administrations, as well as passage of the Infrastructure...

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Doyle Hodges' recent article scrutinizing Gen. Mark Milley's behavior in the waning months of the Trump administration. Journalists have rendered a relatively favorable treatment of Milley's insubordination, but Hodges questions the long-term implications for civil-military relations. Should senior military officers be expected to follow lawful orders, even if they...

Melanie and Zack are joined by the RAND Corporation's Mike Mazarr for a discussion about Taiwan. They examine an article by Matt Turpin for the Aspen Institute and debate what is driving increased tensions, and why both the United States and China blame the other for changing the status quo . Melanie calls out onerous education requirements for daycare providers, Mike pleads for deeper discussion...

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about the NATO's new 2022 Strategic Concept , the first update since 2010. A lot has changed since then. What does the new concept get right or wrong? What missions should NATO be focused on at this time? Is the United States a sucker for continuing to carry so much of the burden of European security, or is it in our interest to do so? Can we even have an...

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate the Quincy Institute's new report on U.S. defense strategy in Asia. They applaud the report for presenting a detailed plan and for highlighting the areas of both agreement and disagreement among the authors. They question the political feasibility of the strategy and whether it is sufficient to address the challenges that China poses. Zack remembers Shinzo Abe for h...

Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider the economic measures taken by the United States and Europe to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, especially those pertaining to oil and natural gas. To what extent are these policies responsible for rising gasoline prices? Can other measures be taken to replace Russian oil on the global market? Or should Western governments also employ demand restrictions...

Chris, Melanie, and Zack take a look at the Summit of the Americas, which was held in Los Angeles at the beginning of June. By all accounts, the summit was poorly organized, and attending leaders were unimpressed with the lack of consultation before the event and with the initiatives set forth by the United States during the conference. The heads-of-state of several countries, including Mexico and...

On the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Midway, the crew discussed the Pacific Islands. Beijing has sought, but thus far failed, to strike a deal with 10 of the islands. Meanwhile, U.S. leaders are promising to devote more time and attention to the region. What is at stake? Can U.S. leaders deliver on their promises to the region? Chris also calls out U.S. political leaders for lack of action to...

Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider Finland and Sweden's applications to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Is a larger NATO necessarily a more effective alliance? And what are the practical implications of defending these two countries from an apparently revanchist Russia? What does this mean for the future of European strategic autonomy? And does this signal a hardening of the old Cold W...

Zack, Chris, and Melanie get together to discuss the latest  Space Threat Assessment  report from the Aerospace Security Project at CSIS. People all over the world are ever-more dependent on assets in space for normal activity in their daily lives, but there are few rules of the road in place to manage space behavior. Will it be possible to develop a system of cooperation that allows for freedom o...

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate the National Defense Strategy — at least the unclassified details that are currently available. Does the professed strategy align with the budget? What, if anything, appears to be new and different in the Biden team's approach? And what does it say that strategy documents are being rewritten but budget decisions have already been made? Chris laments student loan for...

Chris and Zack are joined by special guest co-host, Emily Harding of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The three review the Biden administration's latest responses to the crisis in Ukraine before turning to the issue of information security, both in the U.S. government and in the private sector. What information is, and should be, classified? And are we striking the right balance...

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine. They explain what has been surprising to each of them thus far in the conflict. Why has Russia struggled so mightily? Why has Ukraine fought so effectively? And why have the United States, Europe, and other democracies been so united? Most importantly, what are possible pathways to end the war? Chris commends all those helping...