Moving Markets

Equity markets are trading higher amid renewed optimism that the ceasefire will hold, reinforced by Israel’s signal that it is ready to enter direct negotiations with Lebanon. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to rebound following Wednesday’s sharp losses. Investors’ focus now turns to today’s US CPI data for March. In this episode, we are joined by Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, who...

The last 24 hours were a game of two halves for equity markets – Europe and the US rallied as they celebrated the Middle East ceasefire and crude oil ended Wednesday 16% lower. But then the cracks in the terms of the ceasefire appeared – Israel attacked Lebanon, which Iran said breached the agreement, and Iran claimed that it has the right to enrich uranium, which the US says it does not. And so,...

Oil fell the most in nearly six years, while stocks surged after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire just hours before a Trump-imposed deadline, giving markets a brief respite from Middle East–driven turbulence. Asian equity markets jumped, Treasuries rallied, the US dollar weakened, and precious metals advanced. Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Strategist, discusses the implications for bon...

Equity gains on Monday were modest and fragile. Risk appetite is fading as investors focus on President Trump’s deadline, rising oil prices, and Middle East tensions. Strong US payrolls on Friday contrast with weaker services employment and rising input costs on Monday, leaving uncertainty over whether inflation pressures will persist. Technology remains a key theme: strong AI demand supported Sam...

Despite a significant selloff following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, global emerging market equities have demonstrated a surprising degree of resilience. What explains this contained drawdown, and how should investors differentiate across regions even as volatility persists? (00:00) - Introduction (01:11) - Current resilience of emerging markets (01:59) - Earnings revisions and rel...

In his highly anticipated address to the nation, President Trump dashed hopes of a swift resolution to the conflict with Iran, announcing that the US would ‘hit Iran very hard’ in the coming weeks. Markets reacted immediately: stocks reversed earlier gains, government bond yields rose, and oil prices and the US dollar moved sharply higher on the news. In this episode, we are joined by Carsten Menk...

Global markets showed signs of recovery yesterday after a highly volatile March, with European equities stabilising and US indices staging an impressive rally. However, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on sentiment, fuelling higher energy prices and pushing Eurozone inflation above the ECB’s target. Asian markets opened April on a strong footing, led by a sharp...

Despite strong German inflation, global bond yields fell as markets shifted from inflation concerns to weakening growth signals. Soft Swiss KOF and Eurozone confidence data reinforced this move, pushing investors into bonds. Fed chair Jerome Powell said the central bank has limited influence over supply‑driven price spikes, reducing expectations of imminent US rate increases. In equities, Europe h...

Risk-off sentiment dominated the end of last week, with the S&P 500 posting its fifth consecutive weekly decline. Markets remained broadly cautious amid scepticism about any near-term geopolitical de-escalation after several days of headline-driven volatility. Concerns over a prolonged conflict and the risk of spillover effects on inflation and demand as a result of higher oil prices continued...

As the war in the Middle East continues, energy markets are still at the centre of investors’ attention. How resilient are global oil and gas flows, and what are the possible scenarios as the situation evolves?  In this episode Helen Freer is joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, to discuss the latest developments in the Middle East and their implications for...

Markets saw another sharp risk‑off move yesterday as fears of escalation in the Iran war pushed investors out of everything except oil. Inflation worries strengthened after the OECD raised its US forecast, while growth concerns deepened in Europe, where data points to a weak start to 2026. Corporate news added pressure, with technology stocks hit by Meta’s legal setbacks and renewed doubts about m...

Global equities rose on Wednesday as hopes of a path to peace in the Middle East and lower oil prices lifted sentiment. The MSCI World Index gained nearly 1%, its best performance since 9 February, and bond yields eased sharply. Beneath the positive market tone, economic surveys from Switzerland and Germany pointed to weakening confidence. Company news was mixed: Arm Holdings rallied on progress i...

Markets continue to gyrate around the latest headlines on the Middle East conflict. Early weakness yesterday – driven by doubts over the status of any US–Iran negotiations – gave way to renewed optimism overnight and into Asian trading this morning, as the US outlined a 15‑point plan aimed at ending the conflict. Gold stabilised, while global PMIs added to inflation concerns and highlighted weaken...

Global equities staged a sharp rebound yesterday after reports of a potential de‑escalation in the Middle East conflict. Brent crude saw one of its biggest intraday swings on record, and short‑dated US Treasury yields dropped sharply. Asian markets also retraced some of their steep losses from the previous session. In today’s episode, we’re joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research...

Equity markets in Asia have followed their US peers lower this morning after President’s Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was issued on Saturday evening. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have responded that the Strait will remain closed until their power plants are rebuilt. They also warned that if Washington carries out its threat to obliterate their power plants, they...

With geopolitical tensions in the Middle East driving a new wave of uncertainty, investors are watching central bank decisions and accompanying statements very closely. How are policymakers responding, and what does this mean for fixed income positioning? In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Dario Messi, Julius Baer’s Head of Fixed Income Research, to discuss the wee...

Equity markets turned choppy heading into the weekend, while oil prices cooled as investors weighed efforts by the US and Israel to ease concerns over the Iran war. Anxieties over hawkish central bank policies and upward pressure on rates also weighed on sentiment. However, the market continues to be very sensitive to any signs of potential de-escalation. Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerl...

Equity markets are sliding and bond yields are climbing as oil and gas prices surge amid a new wave of escalation in the Middle East. At the same time, central bankers are holding their breath as inflation expectations edge higher. In today’s episode, we welcome Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who share their late...

Global markets held up yesterday despite rising oil prices and escalating tensions in Iran, with European and US equities closing higher. Asian markets rallied strongly overnight, led by South Korea and Japan. More broadly though, investors remain cautious as sentiment cools in Europe and central banks prepare for key policy decisions. Today we’re joined by Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research Ana...

Markets rebounded on Monday as declining oil prices during the day briefly eased inflation concerns, supported by IEA oil supply assurances and US comments on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. European and US equities advanced, led by artificial‑intelligence names, with Nvidia in focus after its major product event. Australia’s central bank raised rates by 25 basis points. In Asia, markets fl...

US markets closed lower on the day, and the week, on Friday but the S&P 500 is still only 5% off its all-time high. The US military struck Iran’s Kharg Island on Friday but as yet they have not targeted the oil infrastructure. President Trump is now calling for a coalition of countries to send ships to help escort cargo through the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices a little lower again. Chi...

As the conflict in Iran continues to drive oil prices higher and unsettle global markets, investors are assessing the implications for Asia and China. Meanwhile in Beijing, the annual Two Sessions meetings have just concluded, outlining policy priorities and economic targets for the year ahead. In this episode of Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius B...

Global markets endured another turbulent session as escalating tensions in the Middle East, including aggressive rhetoric from both Iran and the United States, drove oil prices higher and fuelled risk aversion. European and US equities extended their declines, with energy stocks bucking the trend. Strong US macro data contrasted with the geopolitical gloom, but new US trade investigations under Se...

Tuesday’s rally in European stocks proved short‑lived as surging oil prices and renewed concerns over potential rate hikes unsettled investors. In contrast, US markets were more composed yesterday, with the tech‑heavy Nasdaq even managing to post a modest gain. Asian markets are trading lower today after Brent crude climbed above USD 100 a barrel amid fresh geopolitical escalations. In today’s epi...

Markets reacted to volatile geopolitics as hopes of a swift resolution in the Iran crisis clashed with heightened military tensions. Strong gains in European equities and a sharp drop in oil prices highlighted a session defined by fragile optimism. With central banks watching inflation and safe havens like gold and the Swiss franc holding firm, uncertainty remains. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Incom...