Moving Markets

President Zelenskyy’s second meeting at the White House delivered more smiles than his first but resulted in expectations rather than deals. President Trump has announced that he will now set up a face-to-face meeting for Ukraine and Russia’s leaders, and President Zelenskyy has made security guarantees a ‘starting point for ending the war’. Financial markets are breathing a small sigh of relief a...

Major equity markets surge to new highs, driven by easing trade tensions, robust US earnings, and expectations of US interest rate cuts even as US inflation remains a concern. This trend is also reflected in US investment-grade credit spreads, which have reached their lowest level since 1998. Meanwhile, Indian markets are up over 1% today, following news of a planned cut in consumption tax. Lookin...

Yesterday’s hotter-than-expected US inflation data prompted a reassessment of rate cut expectations, driving yields and the US dollar higher. Although most stocks fell, the S&P 500 managed to eke out a marginal gain, largely due tothe strong performance of major tech companies. Notably, Intel’s stock jumped on news that the Trump administration was considering taking a stake in the beleaguered...

Benchmark equity indices in the US, Italy, Spain, and the UK have surged to new highs, fuelled by a benign US inflation report and Germany's inflation data confirming a sub-2% reading. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says US interest rates could be 150 to 175 basis points lower. Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high, with Ether also close to its record high. Japanese shares are down on a stronge...

The latest US inflation figures for July sent stocks soaring to new all-time highs once again. With a 25 basis-point rate cut in September now widely anticipated by market participants, expectations are running high. In contrast, European markets underperformed due to disappointing economic data from Germany. Joining us today are Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, and Mathieu Racheter, He...

The main question on everyone’s mind is whether today's US inflation report will corroborate the narrative of easing inflation, potentially paving the way for a possible Federal Reserve rate cut in September. A stronger-than-expected inflation figure would serve as a reality check for investors. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments, such as the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin, and trade n...

US stocks are on a tear with the S&P 500 trading just a whisker below its all-time high and the Nasdaq shining thanks to renewed enthusiasm around tech and artificial intelligence stocks. European stocks are also having a good run with banks in the lead. However, Switzerland has been lagging after the hefty 39% levies on Swiss exports to the US took effect on Thursday. This week’s inflation da...

Once again, investors are facing a flood of news to digest – from tariff updates, such as Japan’s announcement that the US will end the stacking of universal tariffs and cut levies on cars; to central bank developments, including the Bank of England’s rate decision and the appointment of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors; to company-specific headlines, such as Eli Lilly’s lat...

Markets are in a positive mood, driven by corporate earnings that are exceeding expectations, and this is despite further 'tariff sabre-rattling' by President Donald Trump, who announced a potential 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors that are not manufactured in the US. Meanwhile, Switzerland has yet to successfully negotiate a reduction in the US tariff of 39%. Yields are slightly higher thi...

With tariffs on Switzerland still in focus, a small Swiss delegation travels to Washington to negotiate a resolution. Meanwhile, emerging tariff threats for semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are weighing on market sentiment. Beyond trade developments, investors must digest a slew of macroeconomic figures and reports from the ongoing earnings season. The US Federal Reserve is also in the spotlight...

European and US stocks staged a recovery rally yesterday, although the Swiss market trailed behind following the recent 39% tariff shock. Meanwhile, yields have fallen sharply across Europe due to robust real money demand. In the US, yields have also dipped slightly, as markets now largely anticipate a 25 basis-point rate cut in September. With a comprehensive update on the current state of the Sw...

President Trump’s team delivered more tariff surprises ahead of the weekend with conditions worsening for both Canada and Switzerland. Then the jobs data delivered some ugly news for the US economy, with severe downward revisions to May and June’s data which saw the bearer of the tidings - the commissioner of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics – lose her job. Added to this, Fed Governor Adriana Kug...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has tempered expectations that the central bank may cut interest rates at its September meeting, leading to a modest decline in stock prices. However, after the close of trading, both Microsoft and Meta reported strong earnings for Q2, with their shares rising substantially, which could set the stage for a positive trading day ahead. Meanwhile, Tim Gagie, Head o...

European equities rebounded yesterday, driven by largely positive earnings, as the IMF upgraded its global growth forecast for this year and next, citing reduced US trade war impact and a weaker US dollar. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk makes headlines with a 30% share dive on revised sales and profit guidance, and US equities lose steam ahead of today’s Fed meeting. For more on the earnings season so fa...

The long-awaited trade deal between the EU and the US only provided a temporary boost to the markets, with concerns swiftly being voiced in Europe. Many described the agreement as one-sided, favouring US interests. Following the announcement, the US dollar strengthened while the price of gold plummeted to a three-week low. Meanwhile, oil prices rose, driven by the trade deal and President Trump’s...

The European Union and the United States have reached a significant trade agreement, substantially reducing the likelihood of an all-out trade war. While some details remain unclear, the markets have responded favourably to the announcement. In a related development, Chinese and US officials are set to convene in Stockholm today to discuss easing trade tensions. Markets have a lot to digest this w...

Earnings remain in the spotlight, with notable gains in the banking sector, while Tesla tumbled amid US policy headwinds. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged and offered a modestly upbeat assessment of the eurozone economy, raising doubts among investors about further policy easing, even while US tariff threats still cloud the outlook. This pushed yields higher and weighed on g...

Global equity markets rally on US-Japan trade deal progress, sparking hopes for EU agreements, with equities surging and gold easing. Japan’s Nikkei 225 reaches a new all-time high, as does the S&P 500. In earnings: Alphabet surprises positively, while Tesla disappoints. Companies reporting today include industry giants like Nestle, Roche, Deutsche Bank, and LVMH. The ECB is not expected to cu...

The current earnings season is proving particularly intriguing, with some companies surpassing analyst expectations and others struggling, particularly due to the impact of US tariffs. On the subject of tariffs, the recently announced US-Japan trade deal has boosted market confidence and fuelled optimism that others, such as the European Union, may also be able to secure similar deals. Meanwhile,...

The US stock market reached new heights, driven by the strong performance of several of the top tech giants, but the broader market failed to follow suit. Meanwhile, government bond yields declined across the board as the deadline for President Trump's trade negotiations, set for 1 August, draws closer. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, offers his insights on the Japanese market...

Japan's Upper House election has sparked market uncertainty after the ruling LDP coalition lost control. Nevertheless, the JPY remained surprisingly stable. The S&P 500 and MSCI World indices reached new heights last week, bolstered by robust economic data and impressive corporate earnings. The US Congress passes legislation regulating stablecoins, thereby giving credibility to the digital ass...

Global stock markets experienced a positive day yesterday, bolstered by impressive earnings reports – including those from ABB – and favourable macroeconomic data from the US. The latter indicated a resilient retail sector, underpinned by a strong US consumer. As a result, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both closed at record highs. In Asia, however, the outlook is more mixed, with attent...

The US President’s comments regarding potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell sparked market volatility. The initial reaction was swift, with the dollar and stocks tumbling, but the market later showed resilience with the S&P 500 rising. Strong US bank earnings and mixed inflation signals added to the complex picture. Global trade tensions weighed on European stocks, with shares of ASML and...

Stocks retreated in response to US inflation data, which met expectations but showed that tariffs have arrived in inflation figures. The earnings season has started with mixed bank earnings dragging down broader equity markets, while the tech heavy Nasdaq reached a record high on gains by chip giant Nvidia. This followed the US decision to ease restrictions on selling AI chips to China. Mathieu Ra...

Stock markets continue to show resilience in the face of the latest US tariff threats and potential countermeasures from trading partners such as the EU. Other significant news yesterday included French President Emmanuel Macron announcing plans to substantially increase defence spending, while the US shifted its stance towards Russia, threatening to introduce secondary sanctions. Overnight in Asi...