Moody’s Talks – The Big Picture

Our forecasts suggest a decline in debt/GDP ratios for around 80 of the 140 sovereigns we rate next year. However, social and environmental demands, coupled with higher-for-longer interest rates, pose larger fiscal challenges for some. Guests : Marie Diron, MD – Global Sovereign Risk, and Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service Host : William Foster, Senior Vice President...

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we discuss the narrative around the dollar’s demise, the implications for the global economy and the viability of its rivals. Guests : Al Wilson, Chief Credit Officer at Moody’s Investors Service (MIS), and William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service Host : Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service   ©...

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we discuss the hype around generative AI, which sectors and countries stand to gain most, and the risks they need to manage. Guests : Vincent Gusdorf, Senior Vice President within the Digital Finance group at Moody’s Investors Service (MIS), and Christian Fang, VP-Senior Analyst in the Sovereign Risk group at MIS.  Host : Matt Bridle, AVP within the Rese...

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we delve into the world of shadow banking, exploring its recent rapid growth, where we think the risks are, the challenges facing regulators, and the potential threats to financial stability. Guests : Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody’s Investors Service, and Michael Taylor, MD-Credit Strategy at Moody’s Investors Service Host : Jennifer...

Barring gains in productivity, participation rates, skills, education and experience, the coming drag on growth and public finances will be significant. Guests : Christian de Guzman, Senior Vice President/Manager at Moody’s Investors Service, and Anushka Shah, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer at Moody’s Investors Service Host : William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service...

On this episode of the Big Picture podcast, our analysts explore the situation in labor markets and its broader implications for the global economy and corporate credit quality. Guests : Yasmina Serghini, Managing Director within the Corporate Finance Group at Moody’s Investors Service, and Gabriel Agostini, Assistant Vice President within the Credit Strategy and Research Group at Moody’s Investor...

As higher borrowing costs and structural shifts compound cyclical trends in commercial real estate, our analysts explain where the risks lie and how they could affect lenders and the broader economy.  Guests : Ana Arsov, MD- Financial Institutions at Moody’s Investors Service, Keith Banhazl, MD-Structured Finance at Moody’s Investors Service and Matthias Hellstern, MD-Corporate Finance at Moody’s...

Policy rates may be approaching their peaks, but central bankers are unlikely to change course anytime soon. In this episode of The Big Picture podcast, we discuss what this means for credit risk. Guests : Atsi Sheth, MD-Global Strategy & Research at Moody’s Investors Service, and Jorge Rodriguez-Valez, Senior Vice President within Global Strategy & Research at Moody’s Investors Service Host : Sar...

The underutilization of women in the workforce has a huge cost in terms of lost productivity and economic output around the world. What progress has been made and what will it take for women to achieve parity in labor force participation, pay and management roles? Guests : Dawn Holland, Director of Economic Research, Moody’s Analytics, and Raphaele Auberty, Analyst – Sub-sovereign Group, Moody’s I...

The chief economist of Moody’s Analytics joins host William Foster to discuss the consequences of debt limit brinkmanship for the US sovereign, the economy and global financial markets.    Guest : Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics. Host : William Foster, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service. To read more on this topic, visit  The Big...

One year after Russia invaded Ukraine, European economies are confronting a plethora of challenges and a transformed geopolitical landscape. We discuss the trade-offs for Europe as it seeks long-term replacements for Russian gas supplies while keeping decarbonization plans on track, the prospects for certain countries in stabilizing their government debt levels, and how European policymakers are r...

Home prices are falling in the US and Europe after a surge during COVID-19, as interest rates rise at a rapid clip and economic growth slows. On this episode, we discuss what’s different about this housing market downturn, particularly the big changes in mortgage lending since the global financial crisis, and why the credit performance of outstanding European mortgages will likely be much more une...

ESG issues will come into sharp relief this year as corporate debt issuers grapple with growing scrutiny over their decarbonization plans, social risks intensify and the rules of the road for ESG investments evolve – all in an environment of heightened macroeconomic, financial and geopolitical risks. In this episode, we discuss the highlights of our recently published ESG Outlook and what are the...

We discuss how recent geopolitical realignments and the splintering of international trade and financial flows will have credit effects for many sovereigns, and how deepening regionalization, not globalization, may be the trend of the future. Guests : Anne Van Praagh, Managing Director, Global Sovereign Risk, Moody’s Investors Service; and Shannon K. O’Neil, Vice President, Deputy Director of Stud...

On this episode, we assess the major policy announcements from the COP27 climate summit and what they mean for the sovereign and corporate credit environment and for climate risk modeling. We discuss the “loss and damage” agreement on providing aid to poorer countries that have suffered some of the worst effects of climate change, innovations in climate finance, and what new technologies will be n...

In this special episode to coincide with the publication of Moody’s 2023 Global Credit Conditions Outlook, we discuss how persistent inflation, rising interest rates and slowing growth will cast a cloud over the borrowing environment next year. We look at the factors that make this turn in the credit cycle unique, and the likely path for corporate and sovereign defaults. We also examine why social...

Long-time emerging markets investor Mark Mobius speaks with Atsi Sheth of Moody’s about the risks and opportunities in the current macroeconomic environment, effects of the strong dollar, and the outlook for cryptocurrencies as an asset class. This interview took place on the sidelines of Moody’s recent South Africa Risk Summit in Johannesburg, and also touches on Dr. Mobius’s views on investing i...

For banks in the US and Europe, this year’s sharp climb in interest rates has been positive for their performance, helping lift net interest income and net interest margins. But the higher rate environment could become unfavorable for banks as margin improvement begins to taper off and higher credit costs take hold. How are banks preparing? What do prior monetary policy cycles tell us about the co...

Early lights out at the Eiffel Tower. Lowered thermostats. Cold showers. Europe is bracing for a tough winter as it tries to scale back energy consumption to counter cuts in Russian gas flow and surging fuel prices. How are energy-intensive companies altering production to cope with the market disruption? What are the knock-on effects for other industries? And what policy paths are governments pur...

More than two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, many US office workers still are not back at their desks, as many have embraced work-from-home and other flexible work arrangements. How are commercial property owners, lenders and local governments adapting, and what does this mean for creditworthiness? What will it take to draw more workers back to the office? And how do the evolving...

Growth of the G-20 economies will slow markedly this year after a strong rebound from the COVID-19 crisis in 2021, as high inflation erodes consumer purchasing power and central bank monetary policy has become more hawkish. How are the uncertain macro dynamics affecting the financing environment for corporate borrowers, and how vulnerable are lower-rated companies to a worsening economy? Is there...

Cybersecurity risk is evolving in novel ways, with increasing potential to cause significant economic disruption and financial losses for attack victims as hackers become more sophisticated. Which sectors are most vulnerable? What types of entities have the best and worst cyber defenses? And how are organizations managing cyber risks?   Guests: Jim Hempstead, Managing Director – Utilities, Moody’s...

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed energy security to the top of the policy agenda in Europe, raising questions about whether the desire to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas will come at the expense of efforts to decarbonize the region’s economy. What are the options for European countries as they try to become more energy independent, and which countries are best placed to do so? And...

Soaring food and energy prices, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are stoking inflation and reducing households’ purchasing power in many countries. How are governments and companies trying to address affordability concerns, particularly for the poorest members of society? What will be the impact on consumption and economic growth? And what role might diminished living standards play in...

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is fomenting new risks for the global economy and broader international relations. On this episode, a panel of Moody’s Investors Service analysts provide perspective on the spillover effects of the military conflict, from higher oil and food prices, to the growing number of refugees, and rising cybersecurity threats against critical infrastructure and other targets.  G...