Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, says while supply-chain induced inflation will ease up, housing inflation will require much more action on the part of policy-makers and he thinks it will be 2024 or '25 before home inflation stabilizes to something close to the Federal Reserve's targets. Brusuelas says there's "a 45 percent probability of a recession in the next 12 months,"  and he expect...

Whitney Tilson, chief executive officer at Empire Financial Research, says he's concerned that Tether, the world's largest stablecoin, is a "fraud" and running out of money. He worries that if Tether crashes "the entire crypto sector goes with it ... and you don't want to invest in a sector where there's a 50-50 chance you'll lose half your money in a matter of days." Tilson talks extensively abou...

Molly Schwartz, a portfolio manager on the U.S. Broad Market team at Western Asset Management, says a recession can be avoided for the rest of the year if the Federal Reserve "takes a more measured approach" and sticks to it. Even if there is a recession, Schwartz said what matters is how people feel it, and they're not likely to feel much pain while the job market is still growing and workers are...

Market strategist Lawrence McDonald, creator of The Bear Traps Report, says that the Federal Reserve is not "going to get rid of inflation with six months of rate hikes," which is a big reason why he is calling for market doldrums that amount to several years of mostly sideways. While not anticipating a big crash, McDonald says that investors should avoid the Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq Compo...

Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., says that the next step the stock market must take to begin a recovery involves adjusting earnings expectations, noting that several years of record earnings "set the bar too high," and now investors must adjust to lower, more realistic gains. Yes, she notes, valuations have dropped due to the bear market, pricing "a heck of a l...

Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group says that while economic growth has slowed -- causing what might be considered a "growth recession" -- the economy itself should be able to avoid a full-blown recession, as inflation eases and consumers and investors realize "they kind of overreacted a bit" to current conditions. But there's also a second Big Interview with a guy named Steve on this...

Sam Stovall, chief market strategist for CFRA Research, says that there's more pain ahead for the stock market, but that the end of the year is likely to see a bounce-back that serves as the start of a recovery. Stovall expects the Standard & Poor's 500 to hit roughly 3,200 -- which would be a 33 percent decline, and an average bear market -- before the turnaround starts around the December holida...

Paula Pant, host of the Afford Anything podcast says that high inflation certainly impacts consumers emotions and feelings about money but it hasn't had much impact on their ability to achieve their financial goals, noting that people can still 'afford anything, but not everything,' with some stepped up planning to help deal with higher prices. Also on the show, journalism professor Chris Roush di...

With the stock market off to its worst first-half start to a year since 1962, Anu Ganti, senior director of index investment strategy at S&P Global, points to her firm's analysis showing that there is "no correlation between first half of the year performance and second half of the year performance." That doesn't mean that a rally is in the offing -- with 10 of 11 sectors and roughly 90 percent of...

Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management, says that investors have endured the toughest start to a year for stocks and bonds in decades, but the mounting troubles should culminate in a recession in the second half of the year, with the downturn going deeper before a real recovery occurs. Cronk says that he thinks if the Standard & Poor's 500 were to...

Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, says that even though consumers are largely in better position than they were just a few years ago, they're not feeling it now as credit-card debt has been rising and savings levels shrinking in the face of inflation. As a result, the percentage of Americans saying they are uncomfortable financially has skyrocketed, with inflation as the cause...

Mark Newton, global head of technical strategy, Fundstrat Global Advisors, says that a healthy consumer and a market that has solid economic footing should lead to "a recession with a small R and not a capital R." Newtons says his models show a market bottoming out in July before turning significantly higher in September, thanks largely to higher interest rates already being baked into the market'...

Adam Peck, co-founder of Riverwater Partners, says it's a buyer's market right now, especially in the small-cap space with stock prices having fallen to where there are more compelling values and real long-term opportunities. At the same time, he says in the Market Call interview that those conditions put a premium on sifting through the many potential buys to hone in on the right ones. Also on th...

Jeffrey Bierman, chief market technician for TheoTrade and founder of TheQuantGuy.com, says that "much of the dirty work is behind us," with the market now reaching a point "where the values are the most compelling I have seen in 25 years." Bierman last appeared on Money Life in December of 2021, and was extremely cautious, expecting the market to hit a low of between 3,600 and 3,800 on the Standa...

Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist for Natixis Investment Managers, says that the market's drawdown and valuations have performed in line with expectations for a typical recession, and while the third key component of a slowdown --  a big decline in earnings -- hasn't happened yet, he says the market is closer to having fully discounted current events, meaning that "We are closer to the end" o...

Noted value investor Vitaliy Katsenelson, chief investment officer of Investment Management Associates -- who was on Tuesday's show discussing his new book, "Soul in the Game: The Art of a Meaningful Life" -- returns to the show for a discussion of current market conditions and notes that investors in bull markets see their time horizons lengthen, but that time becomes shorter when investors are f...

Ben Hunt, chief investment officer at Second Foundation Partners and the publisher of Epsilon Theory, says investors need to reduce their debts and balance sheet and to "reconnect with the real economy wherever you can" in order to ride out the coming storm that he sees playing out while the stock market digests interest-rate hikes and measures designed to curtail inflation. While Hunt says he is...

Veteran market observer Ralph Acampora, who helped develop market analytics and who is recognized as a pioneer in technical analysis, says the stock market had been setting up major tops for a while,  with the charts implying that the downturn would be roughly 30 percent from top to bottom. With that in mind, Acampora foresees "at least another 10, 12, 15 percent for the Dow and the S&P 500 on the...

Michael Gayed, portfolio manager for the tactically managed ATAC Funds says the Federal Reserve should have raised rates even more than it did Wednesday -- when the central bank made its biggest rate hike in almost 30 years -- because market and economic pain is inevitable and could be long-lasting, but there is growth potential once the market passes the troubles and starts a new recovery. This s...

Victoria Greene, chief investment officer at G Squared Private Wealth, says that investors should look at where they can be best off given current global economic conditions, and says that will bring investors to large-cap domestic value stocks, and she notes that investors may not want to pursue broad diversification because the strategy tends to struggle during times of stress. "It only works wh...

Dan Zanger, founder of Chartpattern.com, says "The 1970s are here again," bringing the dangers of persistent inflation back into play, creating long-term financial pain and putting the stock market in jeopardy of falling "50 to 65 percent before this is over." Zanger expects a protracted downturn, with no quick snap-back because the Federal Reserve can't prime the pump by lowering interest rates....

Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says that a recession is coming, but it's not imminent due to the economy's underlying strengths, including active consumers, corporate balance sheets and the labor market. While waiting for a recession to arrive late next year, Fernandez says investors should be taking advantage of down days in the market to buy up names...

Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners says that consumer demand should support the economy for the remainder of 2022 "without significant dire consequences," but he notes that 2023 is "another whole can of worms" and the Federal Reserve's plans to squash inflation is likely to have side effects that create a recession in 2023. Mullaney talks about the market's fu...

Catherine Stienstra, head of municipal bond investments at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, says that the sharp sell-off that set bonds off to a bad start to the year -- and scared many investors out of the bond space -- has reached a pivot point, so that investors are now looking at "a rare opportunity" to get back in with higher yields and attractive valuations. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vi...

Paul Gruenwald, chief economist for S&P Global Ratings, says that despite the gloom being caused by high inflation, war and more, "If you step back, we're not in a terrible place." He notes that if inflation can be controlled and the labor market stays at current levels of full employment, that should lead to a good outcome once tensions ease. Gruenwald says that a big market decline, recession or...