Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Joe Ferrara, investment strategist at Gateway Investment Advisers, says that a recent study done by his firm shows that many recent drivers of short-term market swings won't matter over time, because 'long-term returns after years like we had last year in 2022 are attractive but volatile,' which is precisely what he expects for the remainder of this year. Moreover, Ferrara notes that history indic...

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for the Independent Advisor Alliance , says that the market has reached a time when the better things are in the present, the gloomier they set up for the future. He says that rather than a soft or hard landing for the economy, we could be facing 'no landing,' which further pushes back difficult times because 'the recession has not been canceled, it has j...

John Mousseau, chief executive officer at Cumberland Advisors says that he sees the potential for the Federal Reserve to steer the economy clear of a recession, and while he expects volatility and notes that investors are right to be nervous about high inflation and the inverted yield curve, they should not be scared away from fixed income now. Mousseau notes that with inflation starting to ease u...

Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at  John Hancock Investment Management , says that macroeconomic signals show that a slowdown and recession are coming in the second half of the year, and while investors should be happy with current conditions and technicals supporting a current rally, she believes that signs like a sharply inverted yield curve,  declines in new orders portend a major...

Cheryl Smith, economist and portfolio manager at Trillium Asset Management ,  says the current rally is not a sign of a new bull market, but rather proof that the effects of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes haven't really had much impact on the economy yet. She expects labor market softness to increase, layoffs to start and unemployment to rise, with the Fed not pulling back on interest rates unti...

Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group , says that equities bottom when inflation peaks, and that process -- typically coupled with the Federal Reserve becoming less hawkish -- is well underway. Papic says the Fed's downshift in the size of rate hikes at a time when inflation remains elevated is a sign that the central bank has already shifted its policy focus, and will lead to consumer...

Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management , says there is a higher probability of a soft landing today than anyone foresaw at the end of 2022, and that the stock market's  strong January proved that investors are buying into the narrative. That said, Garretty says that what people expect a soft landing to be is 'fuzzy.' She expects a time of slowdown and belt tight...

Sheraz Mian, director of research at Zacks Investment Research , says we may be 'close to the finish line with respect to how much [earnings estimates] needed to come down,' noting that earnings estimates have already come down about as far as they are likely to. Still, that doesn't give Mian reason to expect a strong rebound; he says corporate performance will lag the earnings cycle, which will l...

Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy at SLC Investments , says that 'everything is lining up pretty well that the Fed can shepherd the economy to the other side,' and that the markets are starting to agree with that conclusion, expecting a soft landing -- anemic growth but avoiding a deep decline -- and price improvement from here. Mullarkey also notes that he sees 2023 as 'the year of the y...

Lawrence McMillan of OptionStrategist.com , president of McMillan Analysis, says that the technical indicators have all lined up so where there are no sell signals and the market could easily move up to recapture its August highs, though he acknowledges that the big concern is not something in the charts but rather is the Federal Reserve, 'which is not exactly bending over backwards to help the ma...

Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at iCapital , says that while the market and economic fundamentals look pretty bad, those problems have been so obvious for so long that the market has adjusted to where it is now letting slight improvements in the data lead it higher. As a result, even if the numbers show just slight improvement, the market can react positively, which should make it...

Contrarian-minded commodities expert Adam Rozencwajg, co-manager of the Goehring and Rozencwajg Resources fund says the energy market 'has a really unique setup' where prices have risen but money and investment has not flowed to the business, which is likely to extend the positive edge and duration of the current energy cycle. Rozencwajg says tight energy supplies will continue, having bullish imp...

Nigam Arora, editor of The Arora Report says that there's a disconnect between the messages being sent by market and economic fundamentals and technicals, with the technical indicators turning bullish despite longer-term economic data sending bearish signs. As a result, Arora says investors should expect significant volatility and should put more money into the short-term technicals to take advant...

Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac , says the market is likely to close the month having achieved the 'January trifecta,' which is a Santa Claus rally (over the last five trading days of the old year and first two of the new), plus a positive January barometer -- where January's results set a trend for the year -- and then the 'first five days early warning system,' which holds t...

Tom Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors , says that while the headlines and fundamentals are making investors nervous, there has been a shift to the positive in technical market measures, which he believes are starting to show signs of a market bottom and turn that has him bullish on the potential for a good year. Samuelson lays out a number of different technical reaso...

Phillip Wool,  head of research for Rayliant Global Advisors , says that investors who expect the U.S. economy to weaken or to suffer the effects of inflation for longer will find that emerging markets are more compelling than domestic markets in 2023, and he finds China particularly interesting as it pivots to a growth stance coming out of a Covid lockdown and reversing insular policies of the la...

Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company International , says that he expects a modest slowdown and mild recession that is short-lived and shallow, and that the economy will show resilience in rebounding from that, but he notes that the following recovery will be equally mild and modest. Also on the show, Emily Brandon talks about a U.S. News and World Report survey showing...

Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James, says the economy is going through a series of rotating, mini-recessions affecting certain industries, which will lead to a modest recession in the middle of the year, but once but that happens he expects interest rates to start falling, inflation to keep slowing and the Federal Reserve ending its tightening cycle, he expects price/earnings mul...

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire, says he is tilting portfolios away from value and toward growth because investors have been willing to pay up for growth at times when there is no growth. As a result, with an economic slowdown being almost certain, Pursche is repositioning to take advantage of where the money is likely to go; he also sees opportunity in fixed-income and in the...

David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com -- the president, Sierra Alpha Research -- says that until the stock market can get above its long-term trend line and show fundamental strength, investors may want to question how good things are really getting. Keller notes that there are plenty of reasons for optimism, but 'the proof is in the price,' and he will stay skeptical until the...

Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners, says he believes what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been saying about keeping the Fed funds rate elevated for longer, and if the central bank indeed pursues that strategy, the probability of a recession is high towards the end of the year or early in 2024. Mullaney says that for the first time in six years he is...

Axel Merk who is president and chief investment officer of the Merk Funds and Merk Investments, says that while there are signs that the economy is improving, we're 'not out of the woods yet,' and the Federal Reserve 'can't declare victory.' Still, he thinks the central bank will get into wait-and-see mode after two more interest-rate hikes, noting that there may not be a trend reversal this year...

Elliott Gue, editor of the Energy and Income Advisor newsletter, says in today's Money Life Market Call that even after the good year that energy stocks had in 2022, the sector has just started its first steps into a 'multi-year super cycle' driven by supply shortages caused by a lack of investment capital put into the sector over the last eight to 10 years. Gue says he expects 'significant outper...

Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers, says that the key disagreement in the market right now -- the one that it struggles to price in -- is when the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates and start cutting rates. Until there is some clarity there, the market will continue to struggle, and investors should be eyeing earnings season to see what it says for the strength of t...

Jason Vaillancourt, global macro strategist at Putnam Investments, expects a recession that impacts corporate earnings more than it does Main Street, though the downturn he foresees is not immediate. Vaillancourt expects the market to be messy, even though he does not think the market will make new lows much beyond the worst of 2022, but he thinks the market will suffer due to the pressure on corp...