Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group , says  that while a soft landing has been priced into the stock market, sticky inflation is what could make things take a turn for the worse, noting that the longer inflation hangs around, interest rates won't be cut and that will lead to a rougher downturn. Ceci says interest rates are a driving force for stock markets, with an in...

Jeremy Schwartz, global chief investment officer at WisdomTree , says that despite current headlines, the economy will have a higher real growth rate, with productivity improved by technological advances and continued full employment, which should help the economy avoid recession. He notes that inflation rates may not be quite as high as they seem, saying that inflation is below official governmen...

Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist for Natixis Investment Managers Solutions , says that inflation is moving in the right direction -- albeit more slowly -- and economic growth remains resilient, creating an environment where corporate earnings continue to grind higher. That has him locking into his plan and overweighting stocks. Janasiewicz says that so long as inflation doesn't reaccelerate...

Lyle Fitterer, portfolio manager for the Baird Strategic Municipal Bond fund , says that investors should take the Federal Reserve at its word, expecting interest rates to have peaked, anticipate a cut but don't expect it to happen until the numbers warrant it. That may not happen until late in the year or into 2025. Meanwhile, he notes investors are getting strong returns -- particularly in muni...

Andrey Kutusov, portfolio manager on the  global, international and emerging markets small-cap teams at Seven Canyons Advisors , says that "near-shoring" or "China plus one" supply-chain diversification will "be the dominant force in international markets over the next decade." Kutusov says that geopolitical pressure and rising labor costs have pushed companies out of China or made them open addit...

Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute , expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates, but no more than twice this year and in September at the earliest, and he says it's increasingly likely the moves won't start until 2025. The amazing thing, Wren says, is that the stock market got to where it was flirting with record highs despite investors adjusting from...

Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group , says that two wars have had less impact on markets that many observers have expected because the market has recognized that geopolitical events require a direct tie to earnings before they can truly dampen gains. Because of that -- but also because of issues he sees with the domestic economy -- Papic says investors who are giving up on internatio...

David Ellison, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Large Cap and Small Cap Financials funds , says that investors should not expect the classic thinking of lower rates equals higher margins and bank stocks go up, because the math may not work that way this time, which is why he is hoping rates stay where they are for longer. Ellison says that the Federal Reserve should wait until something about th...

Ben Ashby, head of investments at Rayliant Global Advisors , says he's not particularly worried about what two current wars and other issues are doing to the economy ad stock market now, but that his real worry is federal policies in terms of fiscal expenditures. "To me, that doesn't look sustainable, and that looks more like an emerging market than, basically, the leader of the free world." He sa...

Dan Zanger, founder and chief technical analyst at ChartPattern.com , says that he has followed the leaders out of the market, noting that the artificial-intelligence companies that had led the market's rally to new highs have now gone into consolidations and he's content to accept money-market returns until the market changes its tune and the charts stop suggesting that they want to go lower. Als...

Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research , says the economy is resilient enough to handle current levels of interest rates, and that better economic growth will allow earnings to drive the stock market higher even as anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are put off until 2025. Yardeni says he expects the rest of this decade to resemble the Roaring 20s...

Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union , says that the current issues keeping inflation high are about supply-side economics and are the kinds of problems that the Federal Reserve can't just fix by cutting interest rates. So while he sees the Fed as having pulled off the soft landing earlier this year, it can't "save us" this time, although he says the strong economy should...

With Wednesday's release of the latest Consumer Price Index numbers shaking the market's confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut rates soon, Chuck gets the latest take from Christian Chan, chief investment officer at AssetMark , and Gargi Chaudhuri, chief investment and portfolio strategist at BlackRock . Both see the Fed as acting, though Chan expects the central bankers to wait longer until...

George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors , says that inflation staying stubbornly above the target of the Federal Reserve -- despite the central bank's moves that have raised interest rates to 20-year highs -- has created the kind of market conditions in which gold, historically, has thrived. He does not think gold's success is necessarily due to its traditiona...

Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Hi Mount Research , says the bullish sentiment and investor optimism should lift the commodities market and help the market rally keep rolling, though he says investors should be worried that conditions are taking a turn for the worse when more stocks are making new lows rather than new highs or the Standard & Poor's 500 falls below its long-term average....

Bill Adams , chief economist at Comerica Bank says 2024 will end up as "a pretty good year for the economy," with the soft nearly in place as the Fed starts to cut rates in the summer. He notes that worries about an interest-rate shock or an energy-price shock -- the big two drivers of recession -- are not exceptionally high right now and any raised concerns in those areas have enough offsets for...

John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research , turned positive on the market back in November and he's not ready to ring the register and close out the current rally just yet, though there are some metrics showing that "the market is about as overextended as it's been historically before you get a correction." That doesn't make him nervous or worried, but he says that's a symptom rather...

Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi , says that American investors who have some $6 trillion in cash are in danger of missing out as the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates in coming months, meaning they should focus on what they are doing with their cash-like investments. That's why he made Fidelity Limited Term Bond his "ETF of the Week," noting that unexciting -- but in line w...

Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at the Macro Institute , says that people should not expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in hopes of rescuing the economy or keeping the market rally rolling. Instead, he says the Fed tends to cut rates when things go wrong, which he expects to happen by the middle of the year, when bad economic news starts piling up. Nick is not expecting the p...

David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com and the president at Sierra Alpha Research , says the market's first quarter was much stronger than he expected, avoiding a low that he was expecting. The current low-volatility incline the market is on reminded Keller of 2021, a time when the market was recovering from Covid and kept driving higher despite concerns. Keller says that he is w...

Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings , says that he doesn't see the economy going into a recession, allowing the Federal Reserve to cut rates "at a leisurely pace" and to get through inflation-reduction with a soft landing. Gruenwald recently raised his growth projection for the economy and he says the strong economy is letting the Fed take its time in cutting rates, but that curr...

Kim Blanton of the Boston College Center for Retirement Research – where she writes the Squared Away blog -- says that Americans wind up falling into some classic psychological traps when it comes time to claim Social security benefits , and often take the money before they need it based on flawed thinking, reducing their retirement benefits for life. She highlights how savers -- even when confron...

Joe Kalish, chief macro strategist at Ned Davis Research , says that the big picture still argues for overweigting stocks relative to bonds and cash so long as the Federal Reserve follows through on making rate cuts and the economy avoids recession. While economic conditions make it look like a soft landing is in place now, Kalish is concerned about the outlook for 2025, noting that his concern le...

Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Payden & Rygel , says that current conditions -- with inflation falling significantly year-over-year and no attendant hike in unemployment and no recession -- are the proverbial soft landing, and he believes these conditions can persist at least through the rest of the year. The soft landing as the dominant macro story will give the Federal Reserve leeway to c...

Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at  Interactive Brokers , says "This is one of the most momentum-driven markets I can recall ... where the winning stocks in one month continue to be the winning stocks the next month and then continue to win again the following month." Yet he believes in being fearful at times when others are greedy, because there are enough warning signs to make investors j...