Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Tim Urbanowicz, head of investment strategy and research for the Innovator ETFs , says that the current bull market run has the stock market hitting new highs roughly every four days, which is fast compared even to the Internet bubble days, and while investors are nervous that things must take a turn, he points out that hitting all-time highs has never been a catalyst for a sell-off, and isn't lik...

Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. , says the economic cycle is now in its last stages, and while there may be a blow-off top before trouble is here, he expects a recession and he will not be surprised if it occurs after the Federa;l Reserve cuts interest rates. While many observers expect cuts to help markets, Schutte says that the Fed has neve...

Sam Stovall, chief market strategist for CFRA Research , says the market needs to "digest its gains," which he expects to turn into a "low teens selloff," but that will be a bull  market correction and not a catastrophic event like the 2008 financial crisis. Stovall expects the Federal Reserve to  make cuts starting in September, but he notes that the central bank is going to wait until it absolut...

David Trainer, founder and president of New Constructs , was still in a festive Fourth of July mood, so instead of going to his usual spot in "The Danger Zone," he picked a quality, classic American business as a potential buy, singling out HF Sinclair, the oil company, for "The Attractive Zone." Between consistent growth in its dividend and stock buy-backs, Trainer says HF Sinclair could have a p...

Nikolaj Schmidt, chief international economist at  T. Rowe Price , says he's expecting a correction soon "but it's not going to be something too deep or too dark or too scary," noting that the economic backdrop remains strong enough that the Federal Reserve can likely finish the year with just one rate cut. Schmid discusses T. Rowe's 2024 Mid-Year Outlook , and notes that he is concerned that with...

David Lubchenco, partner at Chautauqua Capital Management , says that the underperformance of foreign stocks for several years has been so extreme that relative valuations look good and international stocks are poised for a strong run whenever the market's next cycle begins. Lubchenco says that when there is a concentrated market like what investors have seen during the rise of the Magnificent Sev...

Xander Gray, founder and chief executive officer at XG Capital Strategies , says that a bear market is coming, with a number of potential catalysts contributing to trigger the downturn. He says that while he expects a downturn of up to 30 percent, he does not expect it to take long. Further Gray says that for investors who have not been buying now likely want to wait until next year, with the mark...

Jeff Timlin, head of municipal strategies at Sage Advisory Services , says that potential problems surfacing in the California and New York municipal bond markets  are telegraphing "an economic slowdown nationally," but that investors should not worry about a significant increase in defaults, and should instead find munis becoming increasingly attractive once the Federal Reserve starts cutting rat...

D.R. Barton Jr., Director of Market Research at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles ,  says the longest cycles suggest that the market is topping out now, but 'near-term overbought doesn't bother me right now.' He is expecting more upside into the election and carrying into 2025 before any downturn is more dramatic than a simple buying opportunity. He says that he doesn't expect much downside r...

Matt Gertken, chief strategist for global and U.S. political strategy at BCA Research , says investors should be factoring in geopolitics and the upcoming U.S. election now, because current uncertainty could cause a downturn "soon, at any time." But once the election is sorted out, whoever wins — and no matter the policies they pursue — is facing the inevitabilities of the economic cycle. Gertken...

Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management thinks the current protracted economic cycle "will end the same way that almost every cycle has," with high interest rates triggering trouble before rate cuts and a downturn that resets the market and repositions it for growth. Roland is hopeful the economy can avoid a hard landing — and she notes that heightened go...

Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments , expects the market to start a new leg up and rally, but he notes that it has to go through a shake up and get to where rate cuts start before that uptick starts in earnest. Ladner notes he is "a whole lot more confident about the next six months than the next six weeks," noting that current conditions — with steady or falling interest...

Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute , says the market will take a break of as much as 10 percent, and he is looking for that kind of setback before getting back to being fully invested. That said, he expects the economy to pivot out of slowdown mode and "into a more sustainable growth path, but probably not until later this year or early in...

Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James , says that summers tend to be more volatile and while the market has been up seven of the last eight summers, those gains have had to overcome significant drawdowns, and he thinks that pattern will repeat with an "overbought" market now. Adam still expects two rate cuts, which should avert a recession, although the economy will likely struggle...

Howard Yaruss , professor at New York University and author of "Understandable Economics," says the Federal Reserve should "consider a small rate cut, as soon as possible," in part because the central bank has done a good job — as measured by certain inflation measures — in at least coming close to its target levels, but also because other central bankers around the globe have started to cut, and...

Dedicated value investor John Buckingham, editor of The Prudent Speculator and principal portfolio manager at Kovitz Investment Group , says that the long run of the Magnificent Seven has not made it impossible for value investors to hold some of them, noting that while the very hottest don't meet the definition of value, other tech giants like Alphabet and Meta Platforms are trading at levels tha...

When Chuck turned 62 last week, he became eligible to claim Social Security benefits, and while he always expected to wait as long as possible before collecting, his own health history, his recent marriage and the passing of some friends of similar ages prompted him to revisit the entire Social Security claiming decision, because deciding when to claim benefits — and how much to let them grow or h...

Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company International , says that as the market settles into long-term grown and moderating inflation, it's a good environment for financial markets to broaden out, where he expects more normal relationships between domestic and international stocks and large-company and small-cap stocks. "The market is never about seven stocks or 10 stocks,...

Tom McIntyre, president of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn , says that "this obsession with Fed policy is misplaced," noting that government spending has helped prop up the economy and hidden weakness in the economy. He's concerned about "overall slippage" in the economy; as an investor who factors the news into his investment choices, McIntyre is staying away from retailers and most financial names, b...

Natalie Trevithick, head of investment grade corporate bonds at Payden & Rygel , says that companies prepared for the high-interest rate environment in advance, in ways that have allowed the bond market to avoid the rise in defaults that typically hits during rate hikes, but that also contributed to stronger economic growth, which has allowed inflation to be sticky without a lot of pain to the eco...

Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X ETFs , says that he has no problem with higher-than-planned inflation levels so long as nominal economic growth is there. "Investors don't really profit off of Federal Reserve changes," he says, "they profit off of growth in the economy, and that's what we should be focused on." Gene Peroni, founder of Peroni Portfolio Advisors , says that "...

Karl Mills, partner at Cerity Partners , says that the U.S. economy remains strong, there are some headwinds facing the stock market and that investors should go back to basics — diversifying across borders and industries and looking for investments they will hold long-term. Mills made it clear that he's optimistic for the long term, noting that investors are more likely to be thrown off by the pr...

Brad Lamensdorf, strategist at the Lamensdorf Market-Timing Report and manager of the Ranger Equity Bear ETF , says there's "a lot of stock in a lot of weak hands," which tends to lead to a serious correction, and he says the market is due for a 15 to 25 percent pullback. Further, he notes that bear market corrections tend to "be more significant" in a high-rate market like the one being faced tod...

Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com , discusses a just-released survey which shows that Americans are getting fed up with being asked to leave a tip at everything from a self-service checkout counter to a pick-your-own strawberry farm. The survey showed that  nearly 3 in 5 American adults have at least one negative view of tipping , with a surprising number being upset enough that...

Kathy Jones , chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab , says that the Federal Reserve should be cutting rates now rather than waiting, so the central bank will be deserving of the blame if we get a recession in 2025. Jones worries that central bankers have become "too spooked by inflation," and says they should be less cautious and more forward-looking, and that kind of action could be ref...