Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Craig Callahan, founder and chief executive officer, ICON Advisers — manager of the ICON Equity fund, which is up more than 25% year-to-date — says the market, even at record highs, is right around fair value, meaning he doesn't see over-pricing or investor behavior typical of market peaks. As a result, so long as earnings stay strong — and he describes current earnings as being at levels of "craz...

Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial , says it's "hard to argue" with a stock market that has returned to record high levels on the back of a 9-week winning streak for the Standard and Poor's 500. Turnquist says that kind of streak has only happened 10 times before, with the momentum leading the market higher a median return of 8 percent six months after the streak. Turnquis...

The big story in the week ahead is expected to be the IPO of SpaceX, and Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs , says this deal is ugly right from the jump, putting the new stock in The Danger Zone before it even goes public. Guske notes that SpaceX has no earnings , a negative economic book value, a share structure that leaves virtually all control with Elon Musk, and that nearly all m...

Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Wealth & Investment Management , says he expects inflation will top 4% during the summer, which will put pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates, but that could dramatically increase the potential for recession because rate hikes and oil-driven inflation stocks, historically, have been a recipe for trouble. Cronk, who also serve...

Adam Rozencwajg, managing partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg — a firm that focuses on natural resource investing — says that the war in Iran has already created "the most severe shock to energy markets in history," which he says is three times more severe in terms of barrels produced than anything seen in the 1970s, and that the situation will get markedly worse from here. Rozencwajg says that it ta...

Long-time personal-finance commentator Paul Merriman, founder of the M erriman Financial Education Foundation says that investors haven't taken inflation into consideration the way they have investment returns, and that has the potential to leave them "at risk of being disappointed." Merriman says that investors should "Take 2 percent off of the return for the purposes of thinking about the future...

Charles Rotblut, vice president for the American Association of Individual Investors — overseer of the AAII Sentiment Survey — discusses the dramatic drop in bullish sentiment last week and how the big spread between bullish and bearish investors increased so dramatically that it teeters on the edge of becoming a contrary indicator. The sentiment survey has a history of showing that when emotions...

Eric Stein, chief investment officer at Voya Investment Management , says that  investors can expect interest rates — particularly on longer-term bonds — will keep rising, but those higher reates "will lead to lower rates because you will see a response on the demand side whether it's through the consumer or through the [capital expenditures] cycle." Stein says that if "demand destruction" doesn't...

Brendan Ahern, chief investment officer at KraneShares — which manages a number of funds tied to China — says that President Trump's recent trip to China was viewed very differently overseas than it was in America. In China, the trip was viewed very positively for establishing trade boards, improving communications and laying a foundation for future negotiations.  Domestically, however, the view o...

Andrew Almeida, director of investments at XYPN, says that investors shouldn't be too active in responding to the news, but he says that geopolitics is a real threat to portfolios, especially as current tensions linger and change the inflation landscape. Almeida — co-host of XYPN's new Balanced PM podcast , which launches today — notes that the risks you take in reacting to the news are at least a...

John Blank , chief investment strategist and chief economist at Zacks Investment Research , says that global central banks — including the Federal Reserve — have shifted to a rate-hiking mode. While some will wait to see when the Strait of Hormuz opens and how long higher oil prices impact inflation, he thinks the lingering tensions will force their hand. Further, he worries that the market's curr...

Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy and asset allocation at SLC Management , says that earnings are strong and should keep the stock market rolling, but that signs of weakness shown by the bond market and concerns about how the war in Iran is impacting oil are going to be limiting factors. Mullarkey worries that a longer conflict could turn oil into a global crisis, where rationing and othe...

Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading , says the stock market looks unbalanced to her, with the current rally built around mechanical issues, like an explosion of option sales that impact market performance. She is expecting a pullback, and says things could get ugly — with the Standard & Poor's potentially losing at least 1,500 points, — about 2,000 points — which is why...

Ross Mayfield , investment strategist at Baird , says that the Federal Reserve "is going to be very hard pressed to find a reason to cut [rates] here," and he thinks that if the central bank does have to make rate reductions down the road, "it won't be for reasons investors would be excited about." Mayfield says he remains bullish, noting that "a consolidation period is probably in order," setting...

Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares , says that we have "had the most stunning earnings season in pretty much anybody's recollection," exceeding expectations and making it that the market is more focused on the earnings story than anything else, including bad news about war, inflation and more. He sees that trend continuing, even if inflation rises or stays sticky, until or unl...

Andy Wells, chief investment officer at Sanjac Alpha , says he expects the stock market to continue on its positive roll and wouldn't be surprised if it's up by about 6% from current levels over the next six months, but he also says that investors should expect interest rates to go up this year — even as he thinks the Federal Reserve will look to make a cut — because there is so much incoming bond...

Vince Duffy, news director, Michigan Public , joined Chuck at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing Conference in Philadelphia to discuss how the media handles its coverage of soft versus hard data and whether those stories — and others — are politicized. Duffy also talks about coverage priorities and the difficulties of balancing news that consumers need with the things they most...

Erik Aarts, senior fixed income strategist at Touchstone Investments , says the last few weeks have shown a disconnect between stock and bond markets, with the bond markets getting particularly cautious while stocks have raced back to record highs. What the bond market is worried about, Aarts says,  is that higher oil prices will bleed into another round of higher inflation. ... At its base case,...

Parag Sanghani of the Westwood Holdings Group, manager of the firm's Enhanced Energy Income and Enhanced Midstream Income ETFs , says that the ongoing war in Iran has pulled volumes from inventories early, creating synthetic demand that will keep prices higher for several years. That benefits the oil companies and stocks that Sangahni likes, but it hurts by creating a tax at the gas pump, which he...

James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management , says that the stock market's flirtation with record highs is showing some overvaluation — increasing the potential downside risk — but he only expects that risk to be realized "if the narrative changes, if something comes out of left field that shakes the whole foundation of what is building market optimism today." His most...

Brad McMillan, chief economist for Commonwealth Financial Network , says that there's "an enormous feel-bad headline economy," but the underlying fundamentals are solid enough to keep earnings growing, which will make it that the market does well, or at least avoids a protracted, deep downturn. McMillan worries that when the supply-chain breaks for food, for holiday shopping and more several month...

Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research Institute and the author of "Follow the Fed to Investment Success," says that it doesn't matter much to the stock market when a rate cut happens, so long as investors can expect decline and believe the central bank will step in with one if employment numbers change significantly. Roberts says that the market wants to know that "...

Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager for equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management , says in the Market Call that scary headlines over higher gas prices, inflation and war haven't created a significant headwind to overcome the solid earnings growth picture. Stucky adds that beyond the earnings results, the economy is benefitting from tax and tariff reductions that are helping to balance ou...

Jason Hsu, chief investment officer at Rayliant Global Advisors , says that "thee's the real economy and there's what the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are measuring" and they're different, which is why it's "not crazy for the stock market to reflect something almost separated from reality." As a result, consumers can freak out at what they see at the gas pumps and grocery stores and concerns over war can be...

Shawn Severson, chief executive officer and the head of market and thematic research at Water Tower Research , says that oil futures prices looking out into 2027 and reacting as if "$70 is the new $60," a sign that the market does not think any oil shock will be long-lasting. Meanwhile, he says that the economy's continuing strength is showing that it can absorb and tolerate higher inflation and o...