Money For the Rest of Us

Professional investors and other market participants are lousy at forecasting interest rates. Here are three more options to lock in higher yields today. Topics covered include: The risk of buying long-term bonds and ETFs to benefit from falling yields How volatility drag has impacted a long-term bond ETF like TLT Why interest rates won't go up just because the government issues more bonds How CDs...

With cash yields expected to fall, here's how you can keep your portfolio income elevated by purchasing longer-term individual bonds and bullet ETFs Topics covered include: How future short-term interest rates, inflation expectations, and term premiums impact long-term interest rates How each of those rate drivers contributed to the close to 1% drop in interest rates in the past three months How y...

We explore reasons for buying Bitcoin using one of the new Bitcoin ETFs. We also consider the risks. Topics covered include: Why the SEC finally decided to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs What are the fees and structure of these new Bitcoin ETFs How Bitcoin is similar and different from the fiat money system Where Bitcoin fits in an investment portfolio Sponsors Long Angle is a private community of 2,50...

The intricate dance between profession, risk, lifestyle, and luck in determining how net worth grows. Topics covered include: The various factors that shape the growth of net worth, including professional choices, risk tolerance, and lifestyle decisions. David Stein's personal account of how these elements influenced the trajectory of his financial growth. Insights into the range of net worth incr...

The pros and cons of investing your retirement assets 100% in equity, including half in international stocks. Why the 4% spending rule is too aggressive. Why historical asset class return studies that use only U.S. data are biased How researchers build a broader database to study retirement outcomes and spending rates How a 100% stock portfolio performed compared to balanced portfolios and target...

We close out 2023 by answering your questions on active vs passive management, market timing, investing for status, what we learned from Charlie Munger, thoughts on a coming recession, worst investment mistakes, recent books that changed us, and more.   Sponsors Madison Trust Self-Directed IRA - Go Here to Learn More and Get Your $100 Off Promo Code Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20...

Do the impressive returns in public and private markets stem from strategic financial engineering or reflect actual economic growth? How corporate profit growth is linked to economic growth, even though corporate profits are more volatile How interest rates, tax rates, and stock buybacks influence corporate profits and stock returns Why there are fewer publicly traded stocks How the increase in le...

One year after the release of ChatGPT, we explore the positive and negative paths AI could take and what individuals can do to assist with a positive outcome. Topics covered include: How David uses AI to increase his personal productivity The societal and economic impacts of AI, including its potential to enhance corporate profitability and individual productivity Changes at OpenAI's executive lev...

In this bonus episode, David visits with Bill Yount and Becky Heptig of the Catching Up to Fi podcast in a wide-ranging discussion on investing using a systematic checklist approach. Sponsors Madison Trust Self-Directed IRA - Go Here to Learn More and Get Your $100 Off Promo Code LinkedIn Jobs –  Use this link to post your job for free on LinkedIn Jobs Money Pickle – Schedule a free 45-minute...

What are the economic and cultural benefits of tourism. What are the downsides to too much tourism. How to find the right balance. Topics covered include: How short-term rentals have changed tourism How cities grapple with too many short-term rentals What is the outlook for short-term rentals How much does tourism contribute to economic output How can tourism be harmful and helpful The example of...

What are the pros and cons of partially funding retirement expenses with an inflation-indexed bond ladder versus an immediate annuity? There is a big downside to TIPS ladders that many investors don't realize. Topics covered include: Why the stock market is more risky than many people realize Is it too late to invest in TIPS as one advisor suggests How TIPS and TIPS ladders work How immediate annu...

We discuss ten rules of thumb for individual investors to consider when saving and investing for and in retirement. Don't use institutional hand-me-downs Stay close to home base Beware of dragon risk Mind your investment seasons Catch the popping corn Watch for market swarms Track the economic winds Follow the traffic lights Diversify your baskets Don't burn your ships Sponsors Madison Trust Self-...

Interest rates have been sliding for seven centuries. Dive into the historical forces driving this trend and examine whether the recent interest rate spike is just a blip on the radar. Topics covered include: How the supply of savings and the demand to borrow impact interest rates Why have interest rates been falling for over 700 years, and what might have changed recently to propel rates higher H...

Why investing in non-investment grade bonds, leveraged loans, and preferred stocks is potentially more compelling than investing in common stocks at present. Topics covered include: Why Howard Marks told institutional clients to sell stocks and buy high-yield bonds instead The contractual agreements comprising bonds, leveraged loans, and preferred stock give them an advantage relative to common st...

Our allocation to risky assets should vary based on the expected return, volatility, risk aversion, and how much we can earn risk-free. That means we should be taking less risk right now. Listen to learn why. Topics covered include: Why there are so few billionaires Why the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management imploded Why how much to invest is more important than where to invest How the Merton...

We explore six impacts of higher interest rates on housing, capital projects, stock buybacks, excess returns for stocks, bonds, and other asset classes, and individual opportunity costs. Topics covered include: Where current interest rates stand Central banker predictions for how long cash yields will stay this high Why housing is the least affordable since the early 1980s Why new apartment buildi...

What are the economic and financial system early warning signs that we should heed rather than get caught up in fearmongering? When should we start to worry about ballooning budget deficits, the national debt, a currency collapse, or the stock market? Topics covered include: Signals to monitor to see if things are falling apart How much government debt is too much and why interest rates are key Wh...

Why you might want to lock in higher yields now, given real interest rates are the highest they have been in 15 years. Topics covered include: What was covered this year at the Federal Reserve Jackson Hole Symposium What are the primary policy actions central banks take, and how do they influence interest rates What is the neutral real rate of interest, and why is it important Why new ideas are ce...

David shares how thieves recently tried to smash and grab his luggage from his car while he was still inside it. He then explores property crime trends, whether they are increasing or decreasing, and why. Topic covers include: How thieves have stolen luggage from the same gas station multiple times per day What have property crime rates been in the U.S. over the past few decades and since the end...

How to balance saving, investing, and spending for a fulfilling life. Why you will probably reach your peak net worth sooner than you think and should start drawing down your nest egg earlier. Why we can't optimize for a fulfilling life but can still have one. Topics covered include: How to estimate how much to spend from your retirement assets so you die with zero What is time bucketing and why i...

Three additional insights to help you confidently invest in fixed income. First, what are the different measures of bond yields, and which is best? Second, how to estimate the return for a bond ETF or fund and how long do you have to own it to achieve that annualized return? Finally, we explore a bond type that yields more than U.S. Treasuries, has never defaulted, and has the implicit guarantee o...

How badly has China's stock market performed except for one remarkable decade What are the economic and governance factors that contributed to the underperformance Why it's too soon to write off China despite the structural headwinds What are the factors that contribute to economic growth and a robust stock market, and which emerging market countries display those factors What are some ETFs to inv...

From raging wildfires to devastating floods, how are these natural events reshaping our financial landscape? What if anything, should we be doing with our investments as a result? Topics covered include: The devastating Maui wildfire: What are the factors that led to one of the deadliest wildfires in US history. Global wildfire trends: Are they really increasing? The data might surprise you. The r...

We share five things we have learned about stock index valuations, earnings, currency, and why value investing isn't dead. Topics covered include: How index providers divide the stock universe into large and small, growth and value The difference between the price-to-earnings ratio and earnings yield and which is better How earnings volatility can impact annual earnings growth and what to use to e...

Given climate change and other risks, how should you invest for the next forty years? Topics covered include: What predictions from the last forty years came true and which didn't Why the next forty years will have a lot of similarities to the last forty years despite the promise of AI Why the scale and complexity of the world make big transitions away from oil, cement, and natural gas unlikely Wh...