Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Mel Mattison, investor, monetary theorist, and former fintech executive, joins Monetary Matters to share how he’s thinking about the next few years for the financial system. Stunned that Mel’s “6,000 by year-end 2024” prediction actually happened, Jack asks Mel why he now expects a violent correction in early 2025 while at the same time extending his S&P 500 forecast to the stunningly high 15,000...

When was the last time you heard about an exciting new mutual fund launch? It’s probably been a while. Despite ETFs, hedge funds, and burgeoning asset classes like private credit taking all the headlines, mutual funds still control over $20 trillion in AUM. So, how does one raise assets in the 2020s with a product many associate with a time gone by? Eric Crittenden, CIO and Founder of Stand Point...

Jason Cave, Senior Consultant at Potomak Global Partners, has over 30 years in bank and financial regulatory experience having worked at both the FDIC and FHFA. In this interview, Cave explains why he’s expecting a much better environment for banks of all sizes in the new regulatory regime under Trump. He discusses why he thinks the FDIC will finally open up bank M&A, the Basel III Endgame will be...

Citrini just raised the price of Citrini Research by 25%. Monetary Matters listeners can get access to the LOWER 2024 pricing with this link (offer expires February 15): https://www.citriniresearch.com/subscribe?coupon=d11a5439 The cross-asset thematic investor known only as Citrini returns to Monetary Matters. James reflects on his trades of 2024 in his “Citrindex” which was up 65% in 202 (Januar...

With the end of year approaching and SOFR/IOR spreads widening, Darrell Duffie, renowned and prolific monetary scholar, joins Monetary Matters to share his views on why liquidity strains often appear at quarter- and year-end. Duffie explains his work on the September 2019 repo blowout and shares his findings that timing of bank payments is a better predictor of SOFR/IOR stress than the SOFR/IOR sp...

Having raised over $450m in less than 6 months, Warren Pies, Founder of 3Fourteen Research and Portfolio Manager of $FCTE, has had one of the most successful independent ETF launches of all time. Despite the seemingly overnight success of his fund management business, the real story is about the steady growth of his research business that feeds into everything they do. He explains how his research...

Today’s episode is brought to you by the Teucrium Wheat Fund. War, weather, inflation—even monetary policy—drive wheat prices. See disclaimers below. Explore the opportunities at: https://bit.ly/Teucrium Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital joins Jack on Monetary Matters to share his outlook on global liquidity from three sources: central banks, cross border flows, and the private sector. Howell...

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research, joins Monetary Matters to share her views on the December Federal Reserve FOMC meeting and her outlook on markets and the U.S. economy in 2025. DiMartino doubles down on her call that the U.S. economy is already in a recession, and explains why she thinks on January 29 2025 will be the day that the true weakness of the job market wil...

Jack welcomes Max Wiethe, business partner and host of Other People’s Money podcast, to break down December’s Federal Reserve meeting. Jack shares why he bought puts prior to the Fed’s meeting and his views for the market after its steep sell-off of nearly 3%. Max and Jack debate to what extent the monetary policy is hawkish, the bull case for the dollar, and how many cuts (if any) the Fed will do...

Noel Smith, founder of Convex Asset Management has spent most of his career outside of the world of managing other people’s money. Instead, he traded his own capital as a proprietary trader. Prop traders are famed for generating staggering rates of return, but because they have no interest in raising money, their secrets and strategies generally remain behind closed doors. However, he has decided...

Vincent Deluard, director of global macro for StoneX, joins Monetary Matters to share why he thinks there is a perfect storm of macro headwinds that in April to May of 2025 may put a halt to the relentless rise in U.S. stocks.  Deluard argues that the lower inflation of 2024 will result in a lower cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA) adjustment for 2025 U.S. government programs such as Social Security...

Today’s episode is brought to you by the Teucrium Wheat Fund. War, weather, inflation—even monetary policy—drive wheat prices. See disclaimers below. Explore the opportunities at: https://bit.ly/Teucrium Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and founder of Zulauf consulting, joins Jack on Monetary Matters to share his current views on stocks, bonds, and commodities. Zulauf expects a >1000 point co...

Jamie Carter, Partner and Managing Director at Variis Partners has spent much of his career focused on the world of long-only emerging-market investment boutiques. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Carter discusses the huge differences between building a long only business and a hedge fund business, why launching fund vehicles out of the UK has become more difficult, the differences in raising ca...

Jack Farley welcomes Max Wiethe, his business partner and host of the Other People’s Money podcast, for a conversation about the job market, the stock market, and the recent central banking conference they attended. Recorded on December 6, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter http...

A stalwart of the “no recession” camp for many years, Juliette Declercq of JDI Research joins Jack to argue why she thinks that recession is now the greater risk than inflation for 2025 and beyond. Declercq argues that U.S. economy has been growing beyond organic levels by relying upon debt growth and immigration. She explains her bullish view on the dollar, the two-year note, and her views on sto...

Since Aristides Capital’s inception in August 2008, Chris Brown has returned over 1,000% for their investors with a stunning 16-year track record of no losing years. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Brown explains how they’ve been able to sustain these results and grow their business to over $300m in AUM all while operating far from the typical financial centers where hedge funds cluster. They d...

Andy Constan joins Monetary Matters to explain why he thinks financial markets are abnormal. With credit spreads extremely tight, the yield curve flat, and an expensive stock market, Andy estimates that all assets are expensive to cash and that financial markets are required to return to normal in order for inflation to return to normal. Recorded on November 26, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: A...

Jack is joined by George Goncalves, Head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities Americas Inc, and Joseph Wang, publisher at FedGuy.com and former senior trader for the New York Fed, to probe the challenges the Federal Reserve faces at its December meeting and the new year. Recorded on November 25, 2024.  Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 Y...

Ask anyone and they will tell you it has never been harder to start a hedge fund. That’s why so many of the most successful launches of late have been funds emerging from a prior firm with the backing of the big boss, otherwise known as spinouts. Julian Robertson’s Tiger Cubs are the perhaps most famous spinouts, but it is still an extremely popular trend today. Farid Guindo, CIO and founder of Dr...

Dr. Elham Saeidinezhad, Term Assistant Professor of Economics at Barnard College, Columbia University, and Market Structure Fellow, Jain Family Institute, joins Jack to share her upcoming papers on banks as synthetic hedge funds and interest rate swaps as synthetic funding. Recorded on November 23, 2024.  Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 Y...

Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins Jack to share his views on why the stock market isn’t overvalued and why he is recommending to clients an underweight commodities stance. Pies argues that small-caps and mid-caps aren’t destined to do great if the bull market continues. Recorded on November 19, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5...

Dan Rasmussen has built his firm Verdad Capital into a billion-dollar asset manager on the back of one core activity, producing high quality research. Since Verdad’s inception in 2014, they have produced almost 500 pieces of research that they publish on their website weekly and distribute both on Twitter and to their large email list of readers. This research serves two functions. It’s both the b...

James Davolos, portfolio manager for Horizon Kinetics, joins Jack to share his investment philosophy for investing in companies with strong pricing power that benefit from inflationary environments. Recorded on November 14, 2024.  Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Horizon Kinetics on Twitter https://x.com...

Veteran trader Jason Shapiro joins Jack to share how he perceives positioning across FX, Equities, commodities, and bonds. He thinks the crowded long dollar trade has created a set-up for the Euro to rally, and he estimates that traders are a bit too short of oil and natural gas. Equities is in the “too hard” column so he is neutral, however he sees some short-term risks. Recorded on November 12,...

Hedge fund strategies like distressed, long short equities, relative value, etc. are well defined and understood by allocators. As a result, funds that fit neatly into these style boxes can easily answer the question, “what type of fund are you?” But what if you don’t fit neatly into one of these boxes? Be too exact and no one will search for your niche strategy. Push the envelope to fit into one...