Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist

The Fed will need to slow the US economy and lift US unemployment from 3.7% now, up to around 4.6%, if it wants to stabilize US inflation in the long term.

The equities market is moderately cheap and should rally from here. Still, continual Fed tightening is slowly squeezing fundamentals.

Spectacular growth in earnings per share for the S&P500 are giving way to slower but solid growth.

We compare monetary policy for the Fed, The European Central Bank and the RBA. The RBA has the LEAST expansive monetary policy.

It is currency, not fundamentals, which have caused the oil price to correct.

Low levels of unemployment that have not been seen since six months in 1968 and 1969 could be sustained right through 2019 and 2020.

US markets have a history of performing well after midterms.

Morgans Chief Economist, Michael Knox discusses his Melbourne Cup strategy. Economists generally have enough sense to know that they know nothing about horse races. There are people who do. They are called tipsters.

Panic selling of US stocks and buying of US bonds have made US equities the cheapest since August 2013.

How understanding statistics teaches us about US politics and why stock markets are cheap.

We are now in a bull market correction.

How Donald Trump out bargained the Canadians, squeezed the Chinese out of Mexico and gave American auto workers what they wanted.

The Fed Tells us that US growth this year will be higher at 3.1% but rates will still peak at 3.4% in 2020.

The past 15 months have seen the biggest rise in Chinese steel production since 2009. This lifts demand for Australian Metallurgical Coal and Iron Ore.

An end to QE in December should put upward pressure on the Euro.

By the beginning of next decade the US dollar should be much lower, and the Oil price and US bond yields should be much, much higher.

The events that lead to the Financial Crisis began with "The National Homeownership Strategy: Partners in the American Dream". Launched by Bill Clinton in May 1995, both Democrats and Republicans came to support this strategy.

Strong growth in world demand for refined petroleum product will put upward pressure on oil prices.

We look at the improving path of US corporate earnings and its heady rise since 2016 . We conclude that the S&P 500 is only moderately overvalued . We then look at the ASX 200 and find the same.

The Euro is extremely oversold. The Aussie dollar is moderately oversold. By year end we expect the Euro to go up followed by the Aussie.

We believe that Trump has three major objectives in his trade dispute with China. The first has already been achieved.

We look at both markets and find that the US market is moderately overvalued and the Australian market is only slightly overvalued. Both can continue at this level for some time.

We look at seasonal variation of Brent and West Texas, both usually begin a seasonal fall after August.

Improved commodity prices will support the Australian economy while the RBA holds interest stable until 2020.

Household consumption rises are sustainable. They are sustainable because more people are getting jobs.