McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast

Wheat U.S. winter wheat crop has endured challenges Will April rains be welcomed? Weather La Niña expected to fade in the coming weeks U.S. Midwest dealing with more drought and dryness headed into spring planting season Economy Fed holds rates steady but eases via treasury holdings FOMC lowers 2025 growth forecast and raises inflation forecast With two opposite battles to find, will Chairman Powe...

Inflation, while elevated, is taking a back seat to tariff troubles Consumer sentiment and spending is declining, raising questions about future demand Wall Street and others are lowering their U.S. growth forecasts: Will this spread globally? Time to talk 2026 sugar with your suppliers May the Luck O’ the Irish be with you! Our next webinar: Seasonal Market Outlook Wednesday, March 26, 2025 Look...

Corn and soy complex U.S. corn, soybean balance sheets unchanged with much in the way of consumption uncertainty Global S&D for corn and soybeans both show declining ending stocks vs. last month’s report Wheat USDA cuts exports due to slower sales and shipments Global wheat ending stocks FINALLY deviate from the 257 MMT stranglehold! Sugar Sugar deliveries lowered Beet production increased to...

Outlining risks and impacts in the short- and long-term for grains and softs Import tariffs and agricultural products coming in… Impact on some edible oil, corn-derivative, cocoa, and sugar markets Retaliatory tariffs and agricultural products going out… Impact on corn, wheat, soy complex, and meat exports Wheat Impacts net bearish long term, but regional basis could rise without Canadian wheat im...

Corn Acreage near expectations Ending stocks to grow Will we see growth in consumption in 2025/26? Soybeans Small reduction in yield Ending stocks to decline, but consumption remains a question Wheat U.S. wheat acreage target vs. 2024 Some questions around spring wheat acres and yield being too high Ending stocks could offer a small surplus McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Tr...

Focus: What's happening in the sugar industry and with sugar negotiations Big question: How are negotiations at this year’s Colloquium comparing to the past few years? Patient vs. pushing Are we seeing the “first buy is the best buy” mentality this year? Big topics: Upcoming crop outlook Tariffs, demand, and weight-loss drugs Will the sugar still flow? What about sugar-containing products? Possibl...

Wheat Assessing winterkill risk on wheat HRW: What does the 10-year harvested area average look like? How does this winter compare to years past? Commodity index funds Inflation worries are driving new investor money into commodity index funds Top diversified commodity funds are seeing strong growth in new assets Update on allocations to agricultural commodities as part of a diversified fund portf...

Cocoa arrival numbers and weather tell of a promising season ahead Major cocoa and chocolate producers are concerned about how cocoa prices can affect their financial performance and projections for the year Q4 2024 grind showed a decline in demand: Will Q1 2025 grind help with the trajectory? McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption Live online event! Wednes...

Corn and soy complex USDA leaves U.S. corn/soybean balance sheet unchanged Wheat Limited changes to note for wheat U.S. wheat food demand increases, but was it justified? Global endings stocks: How much lower vs. last year? Sugar Sugar deliveries now compared to last year TRQ imports lowered McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption Live online event! Wednesda...

Jobs number disappoints slightly but revisions to prior months were positive Unemployment rate falls to lowest in eight months Wage growth is accelerating but will it keep the Fed sidelined? Final tariff policy and impact still a big unknown: Leaning towards inflationary? McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption Live online event! Wednesday, April 23, 2025 Re...

Will Mexico production fall below the 5.094 MMT forecast? How tariffs on Mexico may impact sugar trade McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption Live online event! Wednesday, April 23, 2025 Registration is now open! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

What impacts did we see from the harsh winter weather this week? Louisiana cane crop concerns Winter wheat threatened Rumors of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine Next week! Don’t miss our Key Ingredients in 2025 webinar Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 11 am PT / 2 pm ET Register now at mckeany-flavell.com or look for your invite starting next week Host: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Glo...

December jobs boost economic expectations December FOMC points to higher inflation and fewer rate cuts Policy decisions to ban future oil drilling and add new sanctions to Russia, along with threats from Canada, spike crude prices January WASDE bullish to grain market? No shortage of volatility ahead of next Monday’s Inauguration Day! Our next webinar: Key Ingredients in 2025 Wednesday, January 29...

Corn and soy complex USDA surprises with reduced U.S. production for corn, soybeans Domestic soybean oil balance sheet is likely more ominous than ending stocks would indicate Wheat Winter wheat acres on the rise! Up how much from 2024? Grain stocks and WASDE about as expected Sugar Beet production increased A boost to stocks-to-use ratio Our next webinar: Key Ingredients in 2025 Wednesday, Januar...

Commodity trading advisor (CTA) assets under management  Down from 2022 peak but still significant Large CTAs trade as many as 250 futures contracts globally Which category manages the majority of assets? Between January 2021 and February 2024, fund managers rode corn from record-long to record-short positions How many contracts did they sell? How were speculators positioned in last year's soybean...

Corn Corn acres will go up on better returns than soybeans Feed demand may shrink due to continued issues of avian flu Exports are being front-loaded but could stall in the second half Could ending stocks equal 2024? Sugar At what prices will sugar futures be trading in 2025? Strong supplies and slightly lower demand in 2025 to pressure 2026 contracting, but by how much? Wheat Ditto or status quo...

Find a warm, cozy spot and listen to Nicole showcase her annual holiday poem, as only she can do.  Happy Holidays! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

U.S. winter wheat crop conditions are strong heading into winter Is La Niña still forecasted? Speculators may liquidate hefty short positions Russia/Ukraine war full of uncertainty and will enhance volatility What to expect from commodities in 2025? Keep an eye out for our 2025 predictions podcast coming to you soon! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodi...

Wheat Wheat exports increase Stocks fall Soy complex Soybean balance sheet unchanged for U.S. Global stocks still huge Corn Production down globally Stronger use for corn in the U.S. How’s ethanol demand looking? Sugar USDA raises import level: How disappointed will Mexico be? Believe it or not, the International Sweetener Colloquium is right around the corner! (February 23-26, 2025): See you ther...

Market fundamentals Global markets European production issues for crops Domestic markets Latest crush report shows 10-year lows How likely are we to see sustained price relief for vegetable oils? The incoming U.S. administration spells lots of uncertainty Biofuel policy, imports, tariffs, and even TikTok Used cooking oil and its effect on soybean oil usage in biofuels Interested in learning more a...

Contracting is nearing its completion Results are a mixed bag Corn prices were not a factor Product demand assisted in price offers for 2025 Wet mill operations show little change New production at Ft. Dodge and Shenandoah U.S. Corn Wet Milling Industry Study, 2023 Edition! What buyers, consumers, and investors need to know Processes, products, pricing, and growth potential Visit us at mckeany-fla...

Little change in total U.S. herd: Where are we sitting now? Yield or productivity per cow at the farm level How has total milk output been measured on a cumulative YTD basis through October? Missed our webinar on Wednesday? Watch now on IQ! Revisiting Systematic Timing Models: A Secret Weapon for Procurement Risk Management Not an IQ subscriber but want to learn more? Reach out to McKeany-Flavell...

Weather NOAA’s latest odds of a La Niña are declining: Will it actually arrive? Winter weather expectations may not be as threatening to crops like wheat The markets CPI sees three consecutive months of increases How much did the PPI move over the last three months? Fed Powell surprises market with hawkish comments Don’t forget to register for next Wednesday’s webinar! Revisiting Systematic Timing...

Sugar USDA adjusts for early harvest sugar Shifts in old crop numbers Wheat Few changes for wheat, global stocks remain steady at 257 MMT Shout out to Kazakhstan with a 2 MMT increase to production! Corn & Soy Complex Both U.S. corn and soybean yields reduced (and much more for the latter). Ending stocks of soybean oil growing more ominous for 2024/25 Register for our next webinar on November...

With hefty chocolate prices scaring consumers, will we see a bias for sugar-based confectionery treats? Prices at the grocery store: Chocolate candies vs. sugar, candy, and gum Retailers are promoting more aggressively to move products Will price increases continue to insulate most companies on earnings/sales? Mark your calendars for our next webinar! Revisiting Systematic Timing Models with Dir....