Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn Devitt

In this week’s Markets Happy Hour Podcast we discuss alarm bells - where we see them, whether we are finding them where none exist and what we can do about it, if anything. We are joined by former CIO of Royal Mail, Ian McKnight. A few weeks ago, in a podcast with John Normand of Australian Super, we asked if the US economy was actually stronger than we thought, in that US GDP growth figures looke...

In this podcast we feature snippets from our live conversation in San Francisco where we were joined by guests from across the venture capital, programming and fund management spectrum. Over coffee and donuts we debated: Whether we feel a disconnect between the economic backdrop and the current equity market strength? Whether there is a bubble in AI? What inflation feels like on the ground? It was...

In today’s Markets Happy Hour podcast we focus on Memes and Milestones, in a week that has been filled with news of a government shutdown in the US, landmark deals and valuations and market highs. The US government shutdown now is reaching its 3rd day, and has been punctuated with odd bursts of meme-ing involving Sombreros and Mariachi bands as partisan shots across the bough continue. This barely...

In today’s Markets Happy Hour Podcast, we dissect a busy week of news flow including a show down at the UN, growing tensions on the geopolitical front, growing indicators of economic strength and the continuation of the AI big-spending era. We are delighted to be joined by John Normand - Head of Investment Strategy for Australian Super. John's long history in investment strategy and asset allocati...

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we ask if the Fed has, through taking a "risk based" and "meeting by meeting" approach and making its first cut all year (25 bps) taken a "stitch in time" to avert economic disaster. Inflation remains stubbornly high, and it seems that the Fed is now switching to emphasize the employment side of its dual mandate. Inflation around the world is not much bett...

In today’s Markets Happy Hour podcast we do some show and tell as we have a guest, Pablo Castro, who is an economic commentator and podcast host from Argentina, and we examine the recent election performance down there and compare the experience they have had to that of developed markets. We start by analyzing the recent inflation numbers from the US and look at the converging soft indicators, whe...

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast Labor is on our mind - as this was recorded just before the disappointing labor statistics were released in the US, showing essentially a summer slowdown and the addition of only 22,000 jobs. All eyes were on these figures as they are likely to serve as a permission slip for an interest rate cut later in the month, and perhaps give a more visceral read on an e...

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast - entitled Fireworks and Firings - we kick off the holiday weekend in the US with an engaging discussion with Torsten Slok, Chief Economist of Apollo Group. We start with a "vibe check" on the US economy - citing the consensus expectations for growth (falling but positive at around 1%) and inflation (stable and tending towards rising north of the magic 2%...

In this week's short Markets Happy Hour Podcast, I round out a trip to South America by taking stock of the lessons from the "labs" on the ground here and what we can learn for Developed market economies wrestling with "more of the same". We start by citing the 3.8% inflation surprise in the UK, and the cold water that that poured on interest rate cut expectations, which, when coupled with a sell...

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast - subtitled - Notes from a Laboratory - I am recording from Buenos Aires, which has been described to me as like a "laboratory" for economic policy. However, we are talking much more about the global economic outlook here. As usual we start with inflation, where David shares caution regarding the recent inflation numbers in the US where persistent services...

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we reflect on 6 days spent in Chile, and the insights from a conversation with Jose Manuel Silva of LarrainVial Asset Management, who shared details of how Chile is responding to the current tariff environment. It has been a week of much news flow - from the labor statistics surprise at the end of last week, which led to a flurry activity including the firing...

In today's Markets Happy Hour podcast we are recording in the middle of a flurry of trade news flow on the eve of the August 1 tariff deadline. We know, as we record, that the deadline has been extended by 90 days with respect to Mexico and much uncertainty is still in place. However the "twist" in the tale or the "plot twist" of the title refers to the subtle but perceptible change in how the US...

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we tackle the mid-summer silly season in which an extraordinary number of "tall tales" and distractions seem to be flooding the zone. Our special guest this week is Jon Chesshire, Managing Principal of Sindia Capital, who is returning for his second appearance on the podcast. One persistent theme is tariffs though, and in analyzing their impact on the econ...

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are delighted to be joined by Euan Munro, former CEO of Newton Asset Management and a well-known commentator on market conditions and multi-asset investing. We start by reflecting on the slightly higher than expected inflation numbers in the US, ask "Will he stay or will he go?" with respect to the Fed Chairman, and analyze how markets have been mulling ove...

In today's slightly more compressed markets happy hour podcast it is all about tariffs again, and not only are tariffs (whether on copper imports or Brazil - both at 50%) at records again, but US policy is starting to change the course of international politics and not just foreign relations - for this, see Brazil. Other news was a little lighter as the US press gave considerable coverage to the t...

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by frequent macro commentator Stephen Isaacs, who frequently appears on Bloomberg and other channels. He is an experienced Asian investor and former trader. He asks the question for the ages: Is US exceptionalism over or simply over-priced? We cycle through our usual themes of inflation, economic indicators, interest rates, equity markets (an...

Today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast comes to you from France, where I am attending my 25th year business school reunion. It would be fascinating to reflect on where the world economy was 25 year ago - I'll do that next week. This week reflects on the fascinating chapter now being written after the storm (or after this storm), in which markets are rallying once more to all time highs, the dollar is...

In this special bonus podcast we bring you a timely discussion with a Middle East strategist and expert reporting on the situation in the region, as of today, June 25, when a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to hold and narratives shift as to the effect of the US bombing on Iran nuclear's ambitions - whether obliteration or a set-back had been achieved. Kawa Hassan is a Fellow a...

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast, we note how, as we approach mid-summer, the Heat is on, both literally, and at a geopolitical level. Our special guest this week is Robert Morier, a Professor at Drexel University, with a particular focus on venture and entrepreneurship, as well as the host of the Dakota Live podcast, advisor and surf life guard. His insights the job market for graduates,...

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we look at the state of affairs in markets as we approach mid-summer and marvel at the fact that all assets seem relatively subdued in terms of activity - with the exception of the US dollar. US inflation has been modest (2.4%), which is leading to a siren call for more rate cuts, although the US Fed has still resisted pressure - despite the fact that other ce...

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we examine a week that has been a little lack luster for equities as tariff U-turns continue, the geopolitical picture remains murky and as divergence on inflation and interest rates create unexpected openings for non-US assets. We look to the potential penalties for non-US investors holding US investments that are buried in the Big Beautiful Bill and ask...

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we ponder whether the prevailing narrative in the new market era is less a long-form narrative, and more a series of Youtube shorts - short vignettes which can literally capture the mood of a day, and then fizzle out entirely. A case in point was the changing of the narrative around the judicial ruling that seemed to "void" the tariffs of the Trump administrat...

This week's podcast is coming to you a day late due to a typical May milestone - a high school graduation. It was fortuitous though as it enabled us to capture the latest development in tariffs, a new threat against the EU in the form of 50% tariffs, a move that send EU stocks into a late week tailspin. Other developments include the Big Beautiful Tax Bill passing the house, and we analyze what th...

In this week's podcast we reflect on what some commentators have described as a "fever dream" - the essential round trip of US markets since the beginning of the year, whereby they have recently made up lost ground - despite tremendous month to month and intra-week volatility. So should we proceed as if the past few months - including the post Liberation day crisis - never happened? We first look...

In today's slightly shorter podcast - due to a pending Bloomberg appearance - we discuss the transition from the tariff setting stage to the deal-making stage and markets have responded with enthusiasm. The deals to date - when probed - may have over-promised and under-delivered though, and there may be little "there" there, upon examination. For example in the US/UK deal it seems to have been res...