Market Matters from New York Life Investment Management

A government shutdown has been avoided, but investors may still face a “wall of worry”. Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann discuss the recent bout of market indigestion and bright spots for investors.  

As investors seek opportunities to end a volatile year, uncertainty can lend itself to positioning in the extremes: chasing narrow rallies, or sitting it out entirely. To help investors navigate this balance, Lauren Goodwin, Julia Hermann, and Michael LoGalbo focus on two questions: How can I participate in the AI boom? And is commercial real estate the next big risk? 

As uncertainty about recession, inflation, and interest rates has increased, asset allocation decisions have become more difficult for many investors. But there are always opportunities, even as macro and market gears shift. The full multi-asset team at New York Life Investments joins this episode to present part 1 of their Q4 Outlook. Lauren Goodwin, Julia Hermann, and Michael LoGalbo identify an...

In their Financial Futures special series, Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann host leaders from across New York Life to discuss approaches that help listeners prepare and pursue their financial futures their financial futures. This week, Lauren and Julia host Jose Barros, Chief Operating Officer of U.S. Distribution at New York Life Investments, to discuss how outcomes-based investing can refresh an...

In their Financial Futures special series, Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann host leaders from across New York Life to discuss approaches that help listeners prepare and pursue their financial futures. This week, Lauren and Julia host Todd Taylor, Head of Retail Annuities at New York Life, to explore how investors use annuities as a part of a balanced set of financial tools. 

In their Financial Futures special series, Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann host leaders from across New York Life to discuss approaches that help listeners prepare and pursue their financial futures. This week, Lauren and Julia kick off this series with special guest Amanda Kuhl, Head of Purchase Experience and previous Head of Life Products at New York Life, to dive into the role of life insuran...

The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) countries meet for a summit this week, prompting renewed questions about Dollar influence. Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann reprise their April episode discussing what exactly it takes for a country to build a reserve currency, and why they do not see the Chinese Renminbi as a credible competitor to the Dollar on a multi-decade timeline. 

In the wake of July’s inflation data, the disinflation process seems well intact. Does inflation need to be at the forefront of investors’ minds anymore? Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann explore scenarios for the path of inflation over the next year, and what an inflation surprise – to the upside or downside – might mean for the markets. 

Yields have moved meaningfully higher in the last week, but it’s not all because of the U.S. credit rating downgrade. This week, Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann discuss not just what the downgrade implies for U.S. economic health, but also how Treasury issuance and a decision by the Bank of Japan are pressuring financing costs higher. 

Ongoing strikes, scheduled strikes, and high-stakes labor negotiations have swept headlines.  Do they affect the big picture? Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann huddle to shed light on why this wave of labor negotiations has occurred, how it might impact economic outcomes in the next few months, and options for investors. 

Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann welcome special guest Steve Friedman of MacKay Shields to debate the path of economic growth ahead. Can a “no landing” upside scenario for economic growth emerge – and what does that mean for inflation? 

It’s the early days of the era of generative artificial intelligence (AI). Lauren Goodwin, Julia Hermann, and Michael LoGalbo discuss how their team is framing the potential impacts on AI on the investment landscape, whether we are in a bubble, and actionable investment considerations. 

Some data suggests that the U.S. housing market is rebounding. But is this sustainable when affordability hasn’t improved? Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann dig into housing market activity, what it tells investors about the economy, and the investment opportunities that remain. 

The Fed’s latest hiking cycle has been sizable and swift, impacting nearly every asset class. Yet long-term Treasury yields have remained relatively rangebound. Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann explore this dynamic, discussing the major drivers potentially moving long-term yields higher and what this environment means for investors. 

Investors frequently point out commercial real estate as a major area of risk in this economic cycle. Is that the case? Stewart Rubin of NYL Real Estate Investors joins host Lauren Goodwin to describe how long-term trends, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as the near-term economic cycle are impacting the landscape for the asset class. 

Tim Humphreys of Ausbil Investment Management joins host Lauren Goodwin to describe how a global mega trend towards de-globalization, or RE-globalization as our teams have written, can be leveraged in investment strategies today.  Their conversation focuses on infrastructure – thinking beyond “bridges and tunnels” and including energy, digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and more. 

Lauren Goodwin, Julia Hermann and Michael LoGalbo discuss their midyear economic and market outlook, including a step-by-step guide to the key debates surrounding a widely telegraphed recession. The team takes listeners through a discussion of the timing of the economic cycle, the potential severity of a recession once it hits, and under what conditions policy support could save the day. 

Lauren Goodwin, Julia Hermann and Michael LoGalbo discuss their latest research covering the main themes affecting the next decade of global economics and investing. De-globalization is often looked to as the natural progression of geopolitical tension. But when it comes to critical sectors such as energy, tech, and financing, countries are unlikely to be able to turn inward in the way some envisi...

Host Lauren Goodwin and “Macro Mike” LoGalbo re-visit their Black Swan Risks for 2023. Which events are still lurking? 

The Fed has been busy hiking rates, but slowing economic growth and rising risks have investors asking not only if the Fed is done , but when they will cut . Host Lauren Goodwin and “Macro Mike” LoGalbo discuss what it would take to see a Fed rate cut, and why they think it is less likely than the market appreciates. 

Earnings growth is negative this quarter, but nobody’s talking about it. Lauren Goodwin and "Macro Mike" LoGalbo break down how even negative earnings growth can be better than expected, and whether market price action is reflecting these fundamentals. 

Regional banks have come under another wave of stress following the failure of First Republic. Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann discuss the potential for ongoing bank stress, and what it means for policy and the economic outlook. 

Congress is teed up for the next round of debt ceiling discussions. In this episode, Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann provide an update on why this year’s debt ceiling debate is so contentious, and reprise their January episode describing the broader debt sustainability backdrop.

Two currencies sit at the center of the de-dollarization narrative: the USD, and the Chinese Renminbi. Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann discuss what exactly it takes for a country to build a reserve currency, and why they do not see the Renminbi as a credible competitor to the Dollar on a multi-decade timeline. 

There’s been much noise about the end of the dollar, but we’re not convinced. Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann dive in to why the de-dollarization is seeing a resurgence, exactly what it takes to achieve reserve currency status, and why they believe the USD will be the preeminent global reserve currency for decades to come.