Market Depth

To wrap up the first week of a new quarter following a tumultuous month of March, Weston Nakamura reviews policy decisions from Reserve Bank of Australia’s pause-and-assess, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s unexpected hawkish 50 basis point hike. Weston also discusses a big development out of Samsung’s preliminary earnings, in which they had announced production cuts in memory chips, and the...

Following up from the last episode of Market Depth “The Most Critical Month for the Bank of Japan is Here” - Weston Nakamura provides a deep dive on currencies, namely the yen. Weston gives a background on what drives the yen directionally and explains why the currency strengthens despite the Bank of Japan’s endless, record-sized bond buying. In addition, Weston reveals his own non-consensus take...

In this special edition episode of Market Depth, Weston Nakamura presents what lies ahead for a historic and critical month of April 2023 in global financial markets, as leadership change at the Bank of Japan will see the end of Governor Kuroda, the last major central banker of the QE era, and the start of little known incoming Governor Ueda. Weston does a deep dive into the state of Japan investo...

To wrap up what was arguably one of the most critical and history shaping months in global markets, Weston Nakamura takes a cross-asset dive into the month of March 2023. What was really behind the collapse in global bank shares? Why are rates behaving with such extreme levels of record volatility? What does the Bank of Japan have to do with all of this? Weston provides a different angle and expla...

Alibaba Holdings announces their restructuring into six entities, triggering a surge in Chinese tech shares, and global indices. Weston Nakamura gives his initial takeaways of this monumental surprise development, and the potential implications reaching far beyond China. In addition, Weston discusses the upcoming China PMI release on Friday as a potential market moving catalyst, citing the prior m...

In this episode of Market Depth, Weston discusses yet another hedge fund taking big losses, $15bn AUM Rokos Capital Management, due to unprecedented swings in front-end rates. Weston also gives further perspective as to why these hedge fund positioning blow-ups matter - as their trading behavior is both causing, and is the consequence of extreme levels of heightened volatility. Furthermore, these...

Following the initial launch of the Market Depth podcast and a few episodes in, Weston Nakamura unveils his new “trading jacket,” and explains the concept of how the making of each episode of Market Depth is approached. Weston then discusses Japan’s February CPI reading, which came down sharply for the first decline in 5 months - and the impact of the governments energy subsidies on inflation. Fin...

Heading into a very consequential March FOMC meeting later today, Weston Nakamura examines market positioning - particularly focusing on what the real-world market implications from extreme and unprecedented levels of rate volatility are. Macro hedge funds such as Jupiter are seeing their worst performances ever, while Graticule Asia has shut down as a result of the erratic markets of late. Weston...

Market Depth: Monday March 20, 2023 After a historic and last-minute deal of UBS to take over Credit Suisse, Weston Nakamura examines the first market reaction out of Asia. With rates continuing to fall alongside Credit Suisse AT1 bondholders getting wiped out, it is difficult to discern if macro or bottom up forces may be influencing global bank shares' directional movements. Weston therefore tak...

Market Depth: Friday March 17, 2023 -- Amidst turmoil in the US regional bank sector, Weston Nakamura takes a look back at a week of highly unusual (if not record setting) price swings across asset classes, including non-US megacap banks indices in Europe and Japan, Credit Suisse shares, bonds and CDS divergences, and DM rates markets - specifically US 2Y Treasury yields, German 2Y bund yields, an...

In this debut episode of Market Depth, Tokyo- based Weston Nakamura takes a deep dive look into Haruhiko Kuroda’s decade-long tenure as the Governor of the Bank of Japan, who leaves his post as the most consequential major central banker in the modern era.  Governor Kuroda was appointed (then re-appointed for a rare second term) by Prime Minister Abe in 2013, specifically to carry out radically ag...

Introducing Market Depth, hosted by Weston Nakamura, a podcast giving you direct access into the Asia Pacific region. Reporting from Tokyo, Weston provides a unique insight into how the region influences global macro forces driving markets all around the world. With his extensive background at both Goldman Sachs and Jefferies specialising in equity & derivative sales, this is the perfect podcast t...

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent twitter thread after this weeks ECB meeting. In this meeting, Lagarde gave an undoubtedly hawkish press conference to remind markets they have a lot further to go in their quest to fight inflation. Alfonso walks through how investors should interperit this hawkish tone from the ECB, and more importantly how it mig...

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The BIS ''Hidden USD Debt'' Story Explained". This week the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a bombshell report that made the rounds reporting on the roughly $100 Trillion in "hidden" USD debt. Alfonso walks through the mechanics of the report and dispels some...

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Steve Keen Professor of economics and creator of the Minsky software. Professor Keen joins the show to debunk the myth of government deficits by walking through the biggest misconceptions in the mechanics of money, government spending and private vs public sector deficits. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Fo...

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Let's Not Be Stupid Macro Investors". As a long-term or tactical macro investor, the emotion-driven biases threatening to kill our performance are countless. Alfonso walks through his 3 investing principles to help investors best position themselves in markets so ensure they as...

Link to Jared's book - Iceland's Secret: The Untold Story of the World's Biggest Con: https://amzn.to/3EQ0xxX On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Jared Bibler author of Iceland's Secret: The Untold Story of the World's Biggest Con. Alfonso and Jared draw parallels between the financial fraud that took place in Iceland during the 2008 financial crisis, and the rece...

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Eric Basmajian for a discussion on the rising risks of recession into 2023. With a focus on the cyclical & secular forces driving the global economy, Eric shares his framework for assessing the risks of recession in Q1 of 2023. Using both real time and leading indicators, Eric evaluates the current cyclical trend in economic gro...

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The Bond Market Is Talking: Are You Listening?". While equities have rallied in recent weeks, investors are split between wether this signals a market bottom, or a bear market rally. With the end of the year often posting positive equity returns, we have to dig under the surfac...

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Julian Brigden Co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners to discuss the recent rally in markets. In 2022, inflation remains Powell's single focus. After tightening financial conditions all year, markets in recent weeks have rallied on lower than expected CPI & PPI prints. Julian walks through the dynamics that could be at play...

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On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by anonymous analyst Mr. Blonde for an update on the forces driving equity markets through the end of 2022 and into 2023. Mr Blonde walks through the 3 biggest factors driving markets today: U.S midterms, earnings & the Fed. Being vocal about the bear market driven by the Fed's tightening cycle, Mr Blonde now sees the next leg of t...

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "A Pivot From Hawkish To...More Hawkish". This week, the Fed raised rates by 75bp. Many expected the following press conference to be dovish and markets rallied upon anticipation. As soon as Powell spoke, those gains reversed as Powell reiterated “it’s very premature to think ab...

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Dario Perkins Managing Director of Global Macro at TS Lombard for a discussion on "the non-Fed pivot". As central bankers around the world identify inflation as the common enemy, embarking on their fastest rate hike path in modern history, just what sort of fragilities are emerging at the edges? Dario takes a deep dive into the...

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "A Chat With The Top Macro Hedge Funds". After being in London for Blockworks' DAS Summit, Alfonso had the chance to speak with some some macro hedge funds. Alfonso reflects on their contrarian views from the conversations he had with those funds, to share how macro hedge funds...