Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

Fourteen years after the outbreak of civil war, Syria is at a critical juncture. Beyond its borders, regional tensions continue to shape its fate. Meanwhile, traditional global powers, particularly the US, remain largely disengaged—raising questions about the risk of inaction.  This week Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey , director of ECFR’s MENA programme, Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy di...

Europeans face major challenges in maintaining transatlantic relations amid Trump’s withdrawal of US support for Ukraine; now ECFR has declared a policy emergency. Over the next month, Mark Leonard will host a 15-minute long emergency podcast ECFR’s Emergency Room every Monday and Wednesday, alongside our regular Friday episodes. To kick things off, Mark Leonard welcomes Nicu Popescu , ECFR distin...

The final episode of Searching for Deutschland —a special crossover with the World in 30 Minutes —sees experts from Berlin, London, Paris and Warsaw break down the result of Germany’s federal election and discuss what comes next. Coalition negotiations are underway; Germany's shifting political dynamics will shape the country's future while carrying significant implications for Europe. This week M...

Hal Brands argues that, while American power is often seen as dominating the modern era, it is in fact part of a long and violent Eurasian century. From world war one to today's geopolitical tensions involving the US and the authoritarian axis of China, Iran and Russia, the Eurasian landmass has consistently shaped global conflict. This week Mark Leonard welcomes Hal Brands , the Henry Kissinger d...

Last week, US president Donald Trump shocked Europeans when he announced the start of peace talks on the war in Ukraine, following a call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Trump’s announcement fuelled fears that peace talks could begin without Ukrainians or Europeans at the table, and result in key concessions to Moscow. In this episode, recorded live from the Munich Security Conference...

As a committed NATO ally and EU partner, Norway is deeply embedded in Western security structures and stands firmly with Ukraine against Russian aggression. But its ‘Norwegian model’ of foreign policy—engaging in dialogue with actors and countries whose values and interests contradict its own—is unique. This week Mark Leonard welcomes Andreas Motzfeldt Kravik , Norway’s deputy foreign minister and...

Less than two weeks into his second term and President Donald Trump is already dominating global headlines. From reigniting trade war threats and doubling down on his ambitions to acquire Greenland, to withdrawing from multilateral agreements and demanding that NATO allies allocate 5% of their GDP to defence—his administration is swiftly attempting to reshape global dynamics. Meanwhile, Trump’s al...

ECFR is live from the WEF 2025 in Davos, where top business leaders are gathered to discuss the state of the world. After Donald Trump’s inauguration just three days ago, attendees eagerly await the absent US president's video address on Thursday afternoon. This week Mark Leonard welcomes Carl Bildt, co-chair of ECFR’s council and former prime minister and foreign minister of Sweden, and Arancha G...

With just five weeks remaining until the German federal election, Friedrich Merz's CDU is leading in the polls. But significant shifts in geopolitics—and opinion—can occur in weeks and days: and this election will take place in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s inauguration and amid the stagnation of the Franco-German engine. Now, recognising the importance of German leadership in Europe, Searching...

On 1 January, Poland assumed presidency of the EU Council. But it steps into the spotlight during a period of seismic geopolitical shifts. With the war in Ukraine raging and Donald Trump’s imminent return to power, Poland faces immense pressure to lead while navigating Europe’s complex security landscape. This week Mark Leonard welcomes Joanna Bekker , deputy managing director at leading Polish th...

2024 was a year of intense geopolitical shifts and growing uncertainty. But one thing remains consistent: ECFR’s ever-popular predictions podcast. In our first outing for 2025, Mark Leonard and ECFR research director Jeremy Shapiro team up to reflect on the accuracy of last year’s predictions—and, with crystal balls in hand, try to decipher which forces will shape 2025. Is this the year they final...

As Donald Trump’s return to the presidency looms, European leaders are intensifying their diplomatic efforts. Emmanuel Macron has met with Donald Tusk to discuss European troop deployments, while a high-stakes meeting in Brussels with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky, NATO secretary general Mark Rutte and EU leaders included discussions on potential peacekeeping missions. Europe seems determ...

As the world becomes increasingly disordered and fragmented, Europe faces mounting geoeconomic challenges on multiple fronts: Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s ambitions in Taiwan, and the uncertain future of transatlantic relations under Donald Trump. To remain relevant, European policymakers must step up and approach supply chains, trade rules, investment flows, and energy policy as indispensable...

Given the turbulence across Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran, conversations at this year’s Doha Forum highlighted a Middle East region, and a world order, in flux. Now the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and the upcoming Donald Trump administration will shape American relations in the Middle East – and changing regional priorities and dynamics will likely impact the future international or...

Its almost three years after Russia invaded Ukraine and, despite small Russian gains in the east, the war looks no closer to reaching a military conclusion. But with Donald Trump’s re-election, change is in the air. Talk of a ceasefire, once taboo, is now common in Washington and even in eastern European capitals – not to mention among government officials in major cities such as Berlin, Paris, an...

After weeks of negotiations, US president Joe Biden announced that Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon. However, it remains unclear whether the development will really help end the Middle East conflict which started 14 months ago and became even deadlier following Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza in October. This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey , director of...

On Monday, the world’s 20 largest economies descended on Rio de Janeiro for the annual G20 summit. But Brazil’s wider role in the shifting world order is frequently misperceived in Western discourse. Many tend to categorise it either as a close partner of Russia and China, or as a staunch supporter of the international order established by the West. In fact, however, it aligns with neither. This w...

Donald Trump's first stint as president – with his “America First” stance and isolationist foreign policy – disrupted relations between the US and Europe, especially over NATO, trade, and the climate. Now the world is faced with further challenges, such as the war in Ukraine: and Trump’s return could prompt European countries to seek greater military and economic independence from the US while col...

On 6 November, the same day that Donald Trump was re-elected as US president, Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed his minister of finance, Christian Lindner – and the country’s ‘traffic light’ coalition government collapsed. Since then, an interim government has been in place: but its future is uncertain amid a rapidly changing world. This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe , ECFR’s...

The polls have closed, the counting is almost over, and it is certain: there will be a second Donald Trump administration. With his historic and unprecedent second victory, the Republican party not only won the electoral college, but also regained control of the Senate – and look set to gain control of the House of Representatives and win the popular vote, too. In swing states Trump’s voter based...

The recent elections in Georgia and Moldova were marred by significant Russian interference, including disinformation campaigns and vote-buying. As the Kremlin seeks to undermine the candidate countries’ EU futures, Brussels needs to take action. This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Tefta Kelmendi , deputy director of the ECFR Wider Europe Programme, and Nicu Popescu , distinguished policy fellow at E...

EU member states have voted to implement proposed tariffs of up to 45 per cent on Chinese electric vehicles. Germany was among five member states to vote against this, isolating itself among its counterparts. In response to the vote, China imposed anti-dumping measures on European brandy imports. But if geopolitical tensions escalate, the EU’s most substantial leverage might involve limiting China...

Since the Sudanese civil war began in 2023, millions of people have been displaced, and thousands killed or injured: as European governments focus on crises in the Middle East and Ukraine, the brutal conflict has led to a humanitarian catastrophe. Now, while various actors such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United States variously mediate in Sudan, Europe remains on the sideline. This week, Mark...

One year on from the murderous attacks of 7 October 2023, the Middle East is in the middle of an escalating regional war. This week,  Mark Leonard  welcomes  Julien Barnes-Dacey , director of ECFR’s MENA programme;  Ellie Geranmayeh , deputy director of ECFR’s MENA programme and Iran expert; and  Hugh Lovatt , senior policy fellow in ECFR’s MENA programme and an expert on...

With only a month to go before the US election, much ink has been spilled writing about how US foreign policy might change if Trump returned to the White House. This is made easier because there is a wealth of information out there for analysts to go on. Harris, on the other hand, is a bit of a foreign policy enigma. With little to no foreign policy experience before becoming vice-president, she h...