Macro Waves

In the first episode of this series of podcasts, William De Vijlder and François Doux will look at the concept of externalities to consider how lockdowns, by limiting human and economic activity considerably, have affected the environment. They also examine the notion of “green swan” risks; climate-related risks that could threaten the economy. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more...

In the final episode, William De Vijlder turns to the psychological factors in play when it comes to inflation. We will see that inflation, perceived inflation and expected inflation are three very different notions. William also looks at relative prices and absolute prices and discusses how the Covid-19 pandemic has affected prices and the nature of demand. Lastly, he will look at the possible im...

In this second episode, William De Vijlder turns to the real economy and examines the factors that could produce inflation. He draws the distinction between headline inflation and core inflation. Could core inflation, which is affected by tensions in the labour market and the markets for goods and services but also by inflation expectations, see an acceleration under current circumstances? William...

In the first episode, William De Vijlder emphasizes that the risk of an increase in inflation is high on the list of frequently asked questions by clients. To tackle the negative effects of the pandemic on the economy, central banks have relaxed their monetary policies and increased the size of their balance sheets by making massive injections of liquidity into the system. For Monetarists (followe...

In response to the pandemic, many governments took a vast range of measures to curb the impact of the pandemic on the economy. In this final episode, William De Vijlder shows how the state remains the “balance sheet of last resort” in the event of an economic crisis. He also reviews the current situation of public finances and what this implies in terms of dynamics of the debt/GDP ratio. Hosted on...

Central banks have played a key role in supporting the economy during the pandemic-induced recession. To do so, they increased the size of their balance sheet. William De Vijlder explains the mechanisms governing this increase in their balance sheet. Is there any limit on how far it might go? He also explains the concept of direct monetary financing. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy fo...

The second episode focuses on non-financial companies. As well as having a considerable impact on their short-term (cash) and long-term assets (imperative of aligning their operational model with new requirements in terms of supply chain resilience), the Covid-19 crisis has obliged businesses to increase their indebtedness. This confronts them with a dilemma whether to strengthen their balance she...

In the first episode, William De Vijlder takes a look at households’ balance sheets by considering how assets and liabilities are influenced by the pandemic. We will also see how the loss of human capital due to the deterioration of the labour market plays a key role in the post-pandemic economic environment. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In the third podcast, William De Vijlder shows how a central bank’s persistently accommodating monetary policy to bring inflation in line with the target can have a negative impact over the long term, threatening both growth and financial stability. In case of a crisis, central banks no longer have much room to intervene, since they have used up their manoeuvring room in the pursuit of their infla...

How to strike the right balance between inflation and financial stability has been a source of debate for decades. In this second podcast, William De Vijlder shows how the central banks give priority to inflation targets over financial stability. He uses a few examples to illustrate how central banks will opt to hold a steady course even when confronted with the risk of instability, which is often...

In this podcast, we look at central banks policy objectives, which sometimes differ. The ECB’s top priority is to meet its inflation target, whereas the Fed is targeting both inflation and full employment. These objectives raise several questions: how can we measure inflation and full employment? How do central banks set their targets? And what instruments can be used to attain them? We will also...

In this last episode, William De VIjlder will show us how negative rates can have an unfavourable impact on financial income and notably retirement savings capital. Other questions arise: are these negative rates causing an increase in households’ savings rate and is this increase to last? And if so, to what extent can the monetary policy be affected? Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy f...

How negative rates can impact households and their savings? In this second part, we will see with William De Vijlder that there is no easy answer to this question given the heterogeneity of households and assets. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In the first episode of this podcast, William De Vijlder analyses the causes of negative rates while explaining how they can brought about the “paradox of thrift”. What does this concept cover? And how could negative rates foster the emergence of such a paradox? Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

What is the position of central banks/organizations such as BIS (Bank for International Settlements), ECB (European Central Bank), the Fed (Federal Reserve) and the Bank of Japan on the issue of financial stability? In this last episode, William De Vijlder will focus on the Bank of Japan which has been conducting a policy of low interest rates for 20 years. Learning about the impact that such long...

2008 crisis was a major financial crisis but it was far from unique. William De Vijlder gives an account of some of the most significant economic crises with a particular focus on the 20th century. He shows how central banks tried to adjust to economic circumstances and fight financial instability. It is to be noted that financial stability has been one of the main concerns of central banks since...

In this episode, William De Vijlder gives a definition of what financial stability is: not only does it create a favourable environment for the smooth functioning of the economy but it also helps absorbing shocks brought about by unforeseen events which put interconnected economic agents (companies, households, the public sector) at risk. He also reviews the four factors which make countries vulne...

This last episode focuses on the impact of climate risk on the public sector balance sheet. How will states address the challenge of climate change? How will they manage the climate debt? Will they be able to implement the appropriate investment policies in a context of pressure on tax revenues? William De Vijlder exposes in this podcast the tremendous challenge faced by the public sector and the...

Climate change can impact business in many ways. We all know the effects of natural disasters, for example. But today, the views of users and consumers should be taken into account. So, climate change can not only affect infrastructure, production or sales but as well the very value of a company. Indeed, its valuation could drop because of climate risk exposure. That is why, William De Vijlder, in...

How does climate change impact the household balance sheet? Households’ assets and liabilities may be subject to climatic hazards. In many countries, this lesson was learned the hard way. That is why households should be aware of the environmental impact of the companies they choose to invest in or work for. In this second podcast’s episode, William De Vijlder emphasizes the particular importance...

Climate change puts at risk the balance sheets of numerous actors, such as households, companies and the public sector. The first episode of this series of podcasts sets the general framework, William De Vijlder is going to remind us what a balance sheet is and how climate change can impact it. The second episode will focus on households and the third one on companies. In the fourth and last episo...

What business strategy should be adopted against geopolitical risks? The third and last episode describes two approaches "coping with" or "avoiding", that is to say to accept the risk or to guard against it. But a third way could be intelligent risk governance. How to build a robust strategy? William De Vijlder evokes different scenarios. Interview conducted with François Doux. Hosted on Ausha. Se...

A consequence of globalization is the increasing exposure of companies to geopolitical risk. How can this risk be monitored? How does it affect markets and the economy? In this second episode, William De Vijlder demonstrates the complexity of the issue by exploring the ramifications that exist between all actors. Interview conducted with François Doux. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy...

The slowdown of the global economy, more and more visible since the end of 2018, has many causes. Among them concern about the pace of US monetary tightening but also about rising trade tensions, import tariff hikes and, and in Europe, Brexit-related uncertainty. Clearly, geopolitics have contributed to an increase in the level of uncertainty. In this series of podcasts William De Vijlder will fir...

In an environment of extremely low interest rates, central banks' room for manoeuvre to boost growth in the event of a recession is limited. So what monetary policy should be pursued today? William De Vijlder discusses the question of changing the objective of targeting inflation in monetary policies. Interview conducted with François Doux. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more inf...