Macro Horizons

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss their takeaways from the most recent FOMC meeting and the strong rally in credit. Topics include a more optimistic tone around the trajectory of inflation, whether Powell’s acceptance of easier financial conditions marks a change in the Fed’s reaction function, and what it means for credit markets.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of January 30th, 2023, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the strong technical backdrop in credit in spite of an unattractive relative value picture. Other topics include what market pricing suggests in terms of the macro outlook and the medium-term path of bank reserves.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of January 23rd, 2023, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the sharp rally in credit markets and what levels likely mark attractive selling points. Other topics include the dislocation between Fed messaging and market pricing, the fair value for credit spreads, and developments in primary markets.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of January 17th, 2023, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen along with Ben Reitzes, Greg Anderson, Stephen Gallo, Dan Krieter, Dan Belton and Ben Jeffery from BMO Capital Markets’ FICC Macro Strategy team bring their outlook for US and Canadian Rates, IG credit, and foreign exchange as the Fed arrives at terminal. Across geographies, timing the resteepening of the yield curve remains topical, and while headwinds to the global economy remain rele...

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of January 9th, 2023, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of December 27th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of December 19th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss their outlook for credit in 2023. Topics include spread targets, relative value, the fundamental and technical factors likely to drive credit, swap spreads, and the risks to their outlook.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of December 12th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Margaret Kerins along with Ian Lyngen, Ben Reitzes, Greg Anderson, Stephen Gallo, Dan Krieter, Dan Belton and Ben Jeffery from BMO Capital Markets’ FICC Macro Strategy team bring their outlook for US and Canadian Rates, IG credit, and foreign exchange 2023 as the Fed remains committed to containing inflation and the prior rate hikes begin to transmit into the economy. As the fed funds rate continu...

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of December 5th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss whether the recent rally in credit will be sustained into the new year or is merely another bear market rally. Other topics include 2023 supply projections in high grade and SSA markets, preferred positioning along the spread curve, and the potential for a wave of rating downgrades in 2023.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of November 28th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of November 21st, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the strong rally in credit following Thursday’s CPI print and discuss the level at which relative value will no longer favor overweight positions in credit. Other topics include recent ranges in credit, fair value estimates for spreads, and the health of corporate balance sheets heading into a likely economic slowdown in 2023.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of November 14th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of November 7th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss their takeaways from the November FOMC meeting and volatile market reaction to a dovish statement followed by messaging of a higher terminal rate. Other topics include market expectations for a pivot, monetary policy lags, and the narrowing window for a soft landing.

Margaret Kerins along with Ian Lyngen, Ben Reitzes, Greg Anderson, Stephen Gallo, Dan Krieter, Dan Belton and Ben Jeffery from BMO Capital Markets’ FICC Macro Strategy team discuss the upcoming FOMC meeting and whether or not the Fed can actually be credible about forward guidance for upcoming meetings and holding terminal after messaging back in May that 50 bp rate hikes should be on the table fo...

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of October 31st, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss how the events of the past week alter their views on credit into year-end and early next year. Topics include whether the Fed’s messaging last week constitutes a pivot, improving primary markets, and the likely path of market technicals into the end of the year.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of October 24th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.