Macro Bytes

Paul and Luke talk to Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist at abrdn, about the UK government’s political economy strategy, whether Sunak will be able to deliver on his key ‘promises’, the developments around a green industrial strategy, and the outlook for the forthcoming UK local elections. 

Paul and Luke discuss the macro implications of recent stresses in the banking sector.  They discuss comparisons with the global financial crisis, the negative economic spillovers of banking worries into the economy, and how all this effects the decision making of the Fed and other central banks.

Paul and Luke talk to Eddie Donmez, global markets analyst and a popular finance influencer at Finimize.    Eddie tells us what it means to be a finance influencer, and talks about changing trends in the retail investor community around access to high quality research. We also talk about events at Silicon Valley Bank. Finally, Eddie tells us why he thinks chatbots and AI innovations will change ho...

Paul Diggle talks to Sree Kochugovindan, senior economist at abrdn, about the Bank of Japan’s “yield curve control” framework.   The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has been anchoring government bond yields at very low levels. But the policy is coming under increasing pressure from financial markets. Will the new Governor of the BoJ upend this key tenet of the global monetary policy landscape?

Luke Bartholomew talks to Paul Diggle and Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist at abrdn, about Europe’s changing fiscal framework.     The rules that govern European fiscal policy are being rewritten, while Europe is also designing its response to the US Inflation Reduction Act. What does all this mean for the economic outlook and markets?

Paul talks to Robert Gilhooly, senior emerging markets economist at abrdn, about China’s move away from zero-Covid. They discuss the reasons for the abrupt policy shift, the initial hit in terms of health and economic activity, and the economic rebound that’s now underway. 

Luke talks to Lizzy Galbraith, political economist at abrdn, about the outlook for US politics in 2023. They discuss the impact of the narrow Republican majority in the House on debt ceiling negotiations and fiscal policy more generally, the broader Republican legislative strategy for the next two years, and the ways in which the 2024 Presidential election will start to impact politics as 2023 pro...

Paul talks with various members of abrdn’s Research Institute about their forecasts for next year. They discuss the probability of recession, the outlook for inflation and interest rates, what’s happening in emerging markets, and what all this means for markets. 

Paul talks to Adam Slater, Lead Economist at Oxford Economics, about housing markets in the major economies. House prices, home sales and housing starts have been on a downward trend in many countries, driven by rising mortgage rates and squeezed real incomes. But there are important differences between economies, which Paul and Adam explore in this podcast.

Luke Bartholomew speaks to Eva Cairns, Head of Sustainability Insights & Climate Strategy at abrdn, and Jeremy Lawson, head of abrdn’s Research Institute, following their return from COP27. They assess how much progress was made in bridging the credibility, ambition, justice, and adaptation gaps that needed addressing to make COP27 a success. They also discuss whether the COP process is fit fo...

Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss the optimal – and likely – monetary and fiscal policy responses to the coming recession. Is it back to negative rates and quantitative easing, or will persistent inflation mean interest rates remain high even as recession hits? And are governments able to spend big to support the economy, or will they be constrained by what markets will fund and they can af...

Luke Bartholomew is joined by Bob Gilhooly, Senior Economist at abrdn, and Neil Thomas, a political risk analyst at Eurasia, to discuss the key takeaways from China’s 20th Party Congress. With President Xi further cementing his power over the Party and China, the risk of policy shocks and mistakes has arguably increased, while in the short-term China continues to deal with the challenge of zero-Co...

In this episode Luke Bartholomew is joined by Jeremy Lawson, abrdn’s Chief Economist, and James McBride from Forefront Advisers to discuss the recent economic, political, and market turbulence in the UK. With the Bank of England forced to intervene in the government bond market, the economy likely to fall into recession, and the government’s fiscal plans in disarray, they consider how likely the g...

In this episode, Luke Bartholomew speaks to abrdn’s Deputy Chief Economist after the developments in the US economy and markets over the summer, and look forward to the upcoming Federal Reserve decision and mid-term elections. The Fed is gearing up for another mammoth rate hike, continuing the sharpest adjustment in monetary policy settings since the Volker era.  This continued urgency provides a...

In this episode, Luke and Paul discuss the many challenges facing Europe at the moment, including: inflation, recession, energy prices, political uncertainty, and monetary policy tightening.   The key takeaways are  ·         Consumer sentiment in the Eurozone is at all-time lows. While these surveys probably overstate the degree of economic weakness, this kind of sentiment deterioration cannot he...

In this episode, Paul Diggle talks to abrdn’s Senior Emerging Market Economist Robert Gilhooly and Absolute Strategy Research’s EM economist Adam Wolfe about the outlook for China. They discuss zero Covid, the 20th Party Congress, and President Xi’s policy agenda.  The key takeaways are:  ·         Chinese growth is rebounding out of the Shanghai lockdown, but this recovery may not prove particula...

In the second of a two part special, Luke Bartholomew and Paul Diggle are joined by Professor Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge University, and author of the recent book Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century . In this episode they discuss monetary policy, including the geopolitical and democratic consequences of US monetary hegemony, the future of central bank independ...

In the first of a two part special, Luke Bartholomew and Paul Diggle are joined by Professor Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge University, and author of the recent book Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century . In this episode they discuss the geopolitics of energy supply, and how this helps to explain aspects of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the green transition, and other f...

In this podcast, co-hosts Luke Bartholomew and Paul Diggle speak to abrdn’s Deputy Chief Economist about the US-led global recession we are forecasting.  The key takeaways were:  We expect the US economy to fall into recession in the second half of 2023 as a result of the Fed’s monetary policy tightening.  History suggests that when inflation gets this high and unemployment this low, hiking cycles...

In this episode our co-host Paul Diggle chats with Jeremy Lawson and Anna Moss about the impact of the energy transition in Asia.    The key takeaways are: ·         The Asia Pacific region is a crucial battleground in the world’s fight to decarbonise. Over the past 20 years, almost all the net increase in global emissions has come from APAC. That means it’s a region replete with investment opport...

In this episode, our hosts Luke Bartholomew and Paul Diggle discuss the recent collapse of a large crypto asset project, and the knock-on effects on the wider crypto market with Jonathan Hobbs from Finimize. The key takeaways are: ·         The collapse of the algorithmic stablecoin Terra and associated coin Luna was caused by design flaws in its supposed stabilisation mechanism, exposed by a risi...

Focusing on the UK local elections, Paul Diggle, Luke Bartholomew & Jeremy Lawson discuss the economic challenges facing the UK government and what it all means for the potential future general election and for investors

Luke Bartholomew & Paul Diggle discuss the French Election Results and the state of French politics. They touch on the lessons to be learnt around Inflation and the broader political environment 

Luke Bartholomew & Sree Kochugovindan sit down to discuss the factors at play as to why Inflation is so surprisingly high across multiple countries. They drill down on key topics surrounding inflation and how this is then linked with the employment market. 

With growing perception that the Fed has fallen behind the curve in terms of dealing with underlying inflation pressure, significant monetary tightening will need to occur. Does this mean a recession is looming?  Deputy Chief Economist, James McCann and Research Economist, Abigail Watt, join Luke Bartholomew to provide their insights.