LiveSquawk Market Talk

Markets price a 69% chance of government shutdown disrupting fiscal support and delaying crucial NFP data. With the Fed caught between persistent 2.8% core inflation and a labor market sending conflicting signals, could a shutdown force Powell's hand? Sam Cutler warns that the Fed may be entering “uncharted waters.” He argues that without reliable NFP data, policymakers risk either overreactin...

The S&P 500 is tracking toward its best September since 2010, defying one of the market's strongest seasonal patterns. When historical trends break this dramatically, smart money pays attention. Guest Mike Zaccardi discusses what's powering this unprecedented September surge. Follow Mike Zaccardi on X: x.com/mikezaccardi Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 livesquawk.co...

New QCEW data reveal payrolls were overstated by 911,000 jobs, and the revisions keep getting worse each month. Could the Fed be staring at four consecutive months of negative job growth without realizing it? Follow Joseph Choi on X: https://x.com/curveadvisor Check out Curve Advisor Substack: https://curveadvisor.substack.com/ Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 livesquawk.com/#si...

Market analysts warn of an unprecedented three-way FOMC split as committee members push for everything from 50bp cuts to no action at all. Michael and Ryan break down why this internal discord could be more market-moving than the rate decision itself. Follow Ryan on X: https://x.com/2bid8offered Follow Michael on X: https://x.com/MrMBrown Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 livesqu...

Long-end yields are surging globally as markets judge the fiscal mess across the US, UK, Japan and Europe. Littlestone warns we still haven't paid the piper for 2008 and COVID borrowing - and the reckoning is building. Follow Ryan on X: https://x.com/2bid8offered Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 livesquawk.com/#sign-up Follow us on X: x.com/LiveSquawk

The Fed's quiet revolution prioritizing employment over inflation has set the stage for a September rate cut, but political interference threatens the entire framework. With UK gilt yields hitting 1998 levels and French spreads widening, Harry and Beat Nussbaumer navigate a world where 'stagflation cocktails' meet government meddling. Uncover the trading strategies that work when polit...

Despite mounting evidence that inflation isn't going anywhere, the Fed just signaled September cuts - and Sam Cutler isn't buying it. From Walmart's rising tariff costs to manipulated unemployment data, uncover why this dovish pivot could backfire spectacularly. Follow Sam Cutler on X: x.com/search4yield3 Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇livesquawk.com/#sign-up Follow us on X: x....

After 30 years in markets, veteran trader Sylvain Asimus reveals why the emotional roller coaster destroys more trading accounts than any technical indicator. Discover the neuroscience behind why stress triggers ancient fight or flight responses that sabotage modern market performance. Follow Sylvain on X: https://x.com/SylvainAsimus Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 livesquawk.c...

Guest Sam Cutler discusses why markets hit near record highs despite looming EU tariffs of 15-30% by August 7th, as Trump's negotiation tactics make moderate tariffs feel like wins. His "art of the deal" approach started with triple-digit threats, making 15% look reasonable to both markets and trading partners. But division among EU members could complicate the response strategy. Fol...

With CPI data that could derail any September cut hopes and the specter of the transitory mistake still haunting the Fed, Powell faces an impossible balancing act. Find out why the FOMC might stay frozen through October, even as markets desperately want relief. Follow Jamie Dutta on X: https://x.com/vantagemkts Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 livesquawk.com/#sign-up Follow us o...

Guest Guenter Grimm joins to discuss why the 15% tariff template from Japan could be the eurozone's best-case scenario, but what if Trump delivers something worse? With 20% tariffs marking 'bad deal' territory and 30% spelling disaster, the ECB's September cut plans hang in the balance. The noise-to-information ratio from Washington has never been higher—and neither have the stakes...

Christine Short reveals why Q2 S&P 500 earnings growth expectations dropped from 9% to 5%, marking the lowest in six quarters. Discover why banks are setting the tone for earnings season and how IPO resurgence with companies like Circle up 500% signals broader market confidence. Follow Christine Short of wallstreethorizon.com on X: https://x.com/christinelshort Try our 24-hour news squawking s...

Beat Nussbaumer examines why Trump's new 35% Canadian tariff and August 1st deadline triggered "very muted" market reactions despite aggressive trade measures. Learn why the dollar's downtrend has "got a little bit stuck" and why traders are shifting from preemptive to reactive strategies. Beat Nussbaumer of https://macrobeat.co.uk Follow Beat on X: x.com/MacrobeatL Try...

Sam Cutler reveals why May's employment beat is heavily distorted by government jobs with 73,000 government hires masking cyclical job weakness. Learn why the debt ceiling resolution requires $600 billion in new Treasury issuance and why markets face potential weakness around August 20th. Follow Sam Cutler on X: x.com/search4yield3 Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 livesquawk...

Guest Chris Stadale warns about inflation complacency, challenges consensus on oil, and pushes back against copper fear-mongering in this week's commodity update. Access the full newsletter here 👉 ⁠https://livesquawkcommoditycorner.substack.com⁠ Follow Chris on X: x.com/ChrisStadele Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 livesquawk.com/#sign-up Follow us on X: x.com/LiveSquawk

Sam Cutler analyzes the market impact of US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities while examining the broader dovish shift across central banks. Learn why oil's initial 5% surge retreated to equilibrium and why the Fed's "dots" showing two cuts disappointed despite market expectations for just one. Follow Sam Cutler on X: x.com/search4yield3 Try our 24-hour news squawking service...

Guest Chris Stadale discusses why he doesn't expect oil to spike to $150, why he believes platinum has quite overvalued and his contrarian view on the dollar. Access the full newsletter here 👉 ⁠https://livesquawkcommoditycorner.substack.com⁠ Follow Chris on X: x.com/ChrisStadele Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 livesquawk.com/#sign-up Follow us on X: x.com/LiveSquawk

Guests Joseph Choi and Mike Zaccardi examine why a rate cut is unlikely amid concerning job market data including continuing claims near 2021 levels. Plus, why Trump's calls for 100-250bp cuts are very shortsighted and potentially economy-crushing. Follow Joe Choi on X: https://x.com/curveadvisor Check out Curve Advisor Substack: https://curveadvisor.substack.com/ Follow Mike Zaccardi on X: x....

Guests Mike Brown and Ryan Littlestone analyze why oil jumped 8-9% and "everyone's gone running back to the dollar" amid Middle East tensions. Plus, discover why UK GDP's 0.3% April decline reflects "payback" from Q1 frontloading and signals deeper economic challenges ahead. Follow Micheal Brown on X: x.com/MrMBrown Follow Ryan Littlestone on X: x.com/2bid8offered Try o...

Experts guests Jeffrey Hirsch and Beat Nussbaumer discuss their most defensive CPI positioning in months while examining why the dollar continues to sell off hard. Follow Jeffrey Hirsch on X: x.com/AlmanacTrader Follow Beat Nussbaumer on X: x.com/MacrobeatL Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 livesquawk.com/#sign-up Follow us on X: x.com/LiveSquawk

Guest Sam Cutler joins Harry for weekly review and what to keep an eye on next week. While US payrolls beat at 140K, discover why "headline numbers can be pretty deceiving" with net gains of just 14K over three months after revisions. Plus, how the Trump-Musk public spat created market volatility despite being dismissed as "two grown men arguing." Follow Sam Cutler on X: x.com/...

Chris Stadele explains copper's "weird" market dynamics while providing new Treasury price projections as futures roll to a new prompt month. Learn why recent data revisions (April jobs cut by 30K) reinforce his advice to "not chip anything in stone nowadays" amid volatile conditions. Access the full newsletter here 👉 ⁠https://livesquawkcommoditycorner.substack.com⁠ Follow...

Guest Guenter Grimm explains why Eurozone inflation falling to 1.9% "basically all but guarantees a cut today." Also discover why Trump's steel tariff hike to 50% makes the ECB decision easier and why central banks are operating in "purely reaction mode" amid unprecedented trade uncertainty. Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 https://www.livesquawk.com/#sig...

Chris Stadele shares why contrarian bond market positioning could be profitable despite widespread negativity following Moody's downgrade. Plus, discover which agricultural market is getting "absolutely pummeled" and why three-day weekends historically mark turning points for market trends. Access the full newsletter here 👉 ⁠https://livesquawkcommoditycorner.substack.com⁠ Follow Chr...

Chris Stadele unpacks why BYD's potential Chilean mining investment may not be a good idea based on historical precedents. Plus, discover what's "alarming and perplexing" about companies abandoning forward guidance despite seemingly calmer markets and reduced tariffs. Access the full newsletter here 👉 ⁠https://livesquawkcommoditycorner.substack.com⁠ Follow Chris on X: x.com/Chri...