LessWrong posts by zvi

This was the week of Claude Opus 4.8. I covered the model card, then model welfare concerns, and finally capabilities and reactions. It's a good model, sir, an incremental but real improvement over Opus 4.7, and it is now my clear daily driver. The Trump Executive Order returned from being seemingly dead, officially putting us in the prior restraint era of frontier model releases, even if they do...

Last week we were expecting an Executive Order on Thursday. Then Trump cancelled it, and said he wouldn’t sign it because he was worried it would be too burdensome. Then, with one change, he went ahead and signed it on Tuesday anyway. The Overton Window has shifted. Nothing was not really a viable option anymore. The Previously Dead Executive Order For several days, we thought that David Sacks, to...

You need a lot of data points to understand a new model, and what you have. Trying to gauge from a few benchmarks is misleading. But if you have dozens of them, from a variety of sources, and you put them together with the model card tests and the model welfare information, you can start to form a consistent pattern. Trying to gauge reactions requires volume and calibration, now more than ever, be...

Everything impacts everything. All knobs that you turn generalize. Thus, when you try to solve one problem, you often create another. There were clearly attempts to address, in this short time, some of the problems with Opus 4.7, including on the model welfare related fronts, including on questions of honesty and sycophancy and also worries that Claude was learning to tell Anthropic what it wanted...

Only six weeks after Opus 4.7, we have Opus 4.8. For everyone, that means another incremental upgrade to Claude. It is once again smarter, and can do tasks for longer, and comes with a number of hot new features. For me, that also means reading another 244 page system card. It was only April 20 when I did a full review of the Opus 4.7 system card, plus an additional post focusing on related issues...

Last week ended on a cliffhanger of sorts. What's in the Executive Order coming later today? What will be in the Magnifica Humanitas? The Executive Order was postponed indefinitely, likely cancelled entirely except for work on securing critical infrastructure. David Sacks and others intervened to kill it, and American AI policy will continue to be maximally ad hoc. Instead, we got Illinois SB 315,...

His holiness has spoken, frequently about AI. At eighty two pages of length. The full Magnifica Humanitas can be found here. I am very happy that Pope Leo takes these issues seriously, and is sharing his views, and bringing a form of moral clarity, even with all the flaws and central errors. More people with voice should share their views in this way, even when I disagree. It's a weird document. M...

Google once again has a model worth at least some consideration. Gemini 3.5 Flash is likely the best model out there at its particular speed point, as long as you don’t mind that it is a Gemini model. So for cases where speed kills, this can be a reasonable choice. Otherwise, I don’t see signs you would want to use it over Opus 4.7 or GPT-5.5. Google also had some other offerings for I/O Day, whic...

Even in a relatively quiet period, AI is out there creating new knowledge. The new knowledge in question is OpenAI getting us the first truly impressive math result that comes from an AI, a solution to the unit distance problem. We’re about to learn a different kind of knowledge later today when the White House issues its executive order, or when the judges rule in Anthropic's DC case. And then th...

I cannot emphasize enough the need to let kids be kids. In Childhood and Education #16: Letting Kids be Kids, I went over exactly how insane we have gotten about destroying the lives of children and along with them the lives of parents and others forced to devote endless hours to actively destructive supervision. I’ll go over a refresher of that, some related new anecdotes, and then some other rel...

So many are under the strange belief that there is something terrible about not owning the house in which you live. So we massively subsidize home ownership, and try to actively interfere with renting. Except when we do rent control, which turns renting into a form of owning, and allows us to take real property and de facto give it to current renters. A lot of this is pure attempts to punish and e...

No more burying the sex stuff under an avalanche of other stuff so no one notices. Use the break while we have one. Let's go. You’re Single Because You Suck At Kissing Luckily this is first one is fixable and Critter is here to help. I find the advice here highly plausible. Like many skills, there are a lot of subtle skills, but a handful of basic principles matter a lot, especially paying attenti...

At least we probably won’t have another pandemic. And we still have a partial Jones Act waiver. For now. Small victories. Table of Contents Hanta Hanta I Don’t Wanta. Bad News. Predictions Can Be Easy Even About The Future. Good Advice. The Efficient Market Hypothesis Is False. There Are Four Skills. While I Cannot Condone This. Good News, Everyone. For Your Entertainment. Gamers Gonna Game Game G...

This is what a lull looks like at this point. The government is having internal arguments. The models are getting improved internally. The coding agent improvements are all what we would expect. There's still a lot happening, including a bunch of cool papers, but I feel able to relax and to take care of some other work while I have the chance. You never know when that chance will be over. Table of...

The real recent story of AI has been the background work being done on Cybersecurity, as we process the Mythos Moment along with GPT-5.5, and figure out both how to patch the internet and what our new regulatory regime is going to look like. The Trump Administration is being dragged, kicking and screaming, into the era of at least some situational awareness, and acknowledgment that catastrophic ri...

We did reading yesterday. Now we do the math. Math is hard. It does not have to be this hard. A large part of the reason math is hard, or boring, is that education studies, especially in math, are worse than you know. It goes beyond the studies failing both math and statistics forever and into what I’d basically call fraud. Various people are at war with math education, and will do what it takes t...

Reading is the most fundamental thing in education. If you can read, you can do and learn everything else. If you can’t read, well, you’re screwed. We know how to teach reading to children. Phonics. The weird thing is we often choose to not do that, and instead to use methods that are known not to work. Principles often want to not do phonics. Teachers often heavily resist phonics. But yes, you ca...

When I started this series, everyone was going crazy for coding agents. Now a lot more people are going crazy for coding agents, as well they should given how much better coding agents keep getting, but also Everybody Knows they are good and is focusing on actually using them. With the slower pace of news here it's no longer clear that the waits associated with doing these updates on their own are...

The era of training frontier models and then releasing them whenever you wanted? That was fun while it lasted. It looks likely to be over now. The White House wants to get an advance look and have the option to veto your release decisions, and it has used this veto on an expansion of access to Mythos. We have additional clarity on what that might mean and it does not look good. Hassett explicitly...

What is Anthropic? How does it relate to Claude? What is OpenAI? What is ChatGPT? How does OpenAI relate to it? Is it a mere tool? Is a future of Tool AI a thing, and why do people keep claiming that it is, or that saying makes it so? This post organizes and gives context for a bunch of discussions and messaging on Twitter that would otherwise be quickly buried and lost. What Is Anthropic? Here is...

The White House has ordered Anthropic not to expand access to Mythos, and is at least seriously considering a complete about-face of American Frontier AI policy into a full prior restraint regime, where anyone wishing to release a highly capable new model will have to ask for permission. This would be the antithesis of all their previous rhetoric, and all their actions to systematically avoid layi...

So many are under the strange belief that there is something terrible about not owning the house in which you live. So we massively subsidize home ownership, and try to actively interfere with renting. Except when we do rent control, which turns renting into a form of owning, and allows us to take real property and de facto give it to current renters. A lot of this is pure attempts to punish and e...

Why can’t you build it? Because you aren’t allowed to build it. Not in the place you want to build it. Or at least, not the way you want, to the extent you want it, at any sane price and on any reasonable schedule. The government will not let you. Here are some of the ways that plays out. One way they prevent this is so-called ‘affordable housing,’ which gives out lottery tickets while overall mak...

Build more housing where people want to live. The rest is commentary. If there is enough housing, it will be affordable, people will afford more house, and people will be able to live where they want to live. It's always been that simple. Increased supply of any kind of housing increases affordability of all kinds of housing. Are there other things that would also be helpful? Yes, but they’re comm...

This was the week of GPT-5.5. It is an excellent model, sir, and OpenAI is competitive with Anthropic's top public offering for the first time since late last year. As usual, I did coverage of the System Card, and then of Capabilities and Reactions. DeepSeek gave us the long-awaited v4. DeepSeek has given us another strong feat of engineering efficiency for 1M context. That is impressive, and ther...