Lagniappe

As economic data continues to show softness, we predict what that means for rate cuts potentially coming this summer. We’ll look at oil prices and discuss why whether you’re making business or vacation plans, the stability of prices is so important across the economy. Plus, airline travel and car sales are back! Key Takeaways [00:18] - Is the economy telling us that rate cuts are coming?  [05:01]...

NVIDIA is officially the financial story of the year so far, and we’ll look at what it means for the economy as a whole and the future of AI. And with advancements in tech, we’ll examine how that affects data usage and why commodities, not technology, might be the discussion point for the next decade. Key Takeaways [00:17] - NVIDIA is the story of the year [05:12] - Is NVIDIA the Cisco of today? [...

As we head into Memorial Day Weekend, we’ll touch on some of the biggest headlines including Trump’s Media company woes and an endless shrimp promotion leading to bankruptcy for Red Lobster. And with the bears dropping out of the conversation, we’ll look at forecast grades for industry experts and how long-term optimism plays into the equation.  Key Takeaways [03:25] - Trump Media hardships [06:37...

As markets hit all-time highs again, we’ll look at shelter being the key driver of inflation. We’ll also touch on Roaring Kitty, meme stocks, and why you can’t gamble on the markets. We’ll finish with the Scottie Scheffler story and take a look at the future of EVs and fossil fuel consumption. Key Takeaways [02:41] - Shelter continues to be the main inflation driver  [08:05] - Who is Roaring Kitty...

We jump into a conversation we recently had about the inverted yield curve and what it means as a recessionary signal plus, why the charlatans and doom-and-gloomers continue to pop up. We’ll then take a trip down memory lane, via stats and stories, about what investing was like in the early 2000s and what it’s like at all-time highs. We’ll finish with a reminder that although the short term can fe...

As earnings and economic growth deliver above expectations, the market is digesting new information from Jerome Powell and the Fed that rate cuts aren’t coming soon. We’ll look back at the last 30 years of returns and ahead to the next 10 years of prices, discuss offshoring jobs, and give bond market and inflation updates. Key Takeaways [00:19] - Fed Day breakdown [05:07] - April brought a much-ne...

It’s peak season in Nola with Jazz Fest, the Zurich Classic, the Pels in the Playoffs, and town is buzzing. We’ll zoom out to examine what all that spending means for the national economy. We’ll also look at wide-breadth market participation and why despite a sell-off in tech, the rest of the market is holding up well. We finish with a rearview mirror view of COVID-era oil prices, how we missed a...

While the debt doomers circle, we’ll examine why no one is good at forecasting and why widely acceptable notions of cross-asset correlations are wrong. We’ll also focus on the market's strengths and discuss the incredible power of America’s dollar, wages, and efficient energy output. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Inflation Update + shelter’s outsized effect [06:33] - Disinflation + the debt-doom loop [0...

New CPI data is here, and the economy continues to run hotter than the market was expecting. What does that mean for the Fed cuts we’ve been talking so much about? And are we now in a position to be more accommodative if the market does stall? All of that, plus global parenting trends and our hopes for Tiger at Augusta.  Key Takeaways [00:17] - CPI Day + Will they or won’t they make cuts? [05:20]...

We’ll react to Jerome Powell’s post-Quarter 1 comments and look at inflation and the economy related to oil/gas, real estate, and commodities prices. We’ll then look at strong financial numbers coming out of Mexico and prognosticate what a bright future could look like with our Southern neighbors as a main manufacturing partner. We’ll finish by joining the national narrative on Caitlin Clark, LSU,...

We’ll start with the flurry of current event news, from the Baltimore Bridge to Trump’s new SPAC. We’ll then look at the FOMO effect of positive markets and discuss how long-term holds can be a time-tested tool to grow your wealth. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Trump’s Truth Social SPAC [03:53] - Baltimore bridge tragedy [08:00] - Historic data after 5-month wins streaks & the start of bear markets  [11...

We’re beginning to sound like a broken record as we record each week coming off more market highs. We’ll discuss how Crypto has roared back after making it through multiple speculative cycles. We’ll also review the positivity that comes with broader market participation. We’ll then examine why you can’t have the debt conversation without also looking at assets and end with the effect of inflation...

With the markets at all-time highs and earnings rising in tandem, we’ll look at why and how the narrative changed so drastically over the last 6 months. Plus, we’ll discuss recession risks being taken off the table with commercial real estate rebounding and the Fed having lots of room to make cuts.   Key Takeaways [00:17] - One of the greatest 19-week rallies ever [02:12] - The recession narrative...

This week, we’ll start with the latest jobs report and examine NVIDIA’s wild ride over the last two weeks. We’ll then discuss troubles with Apple and the airline industry and address concerns that the Fed will lower rates too late. We’ll wrap up with a look at this bull market cycle and how a healthy correction could take place. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Jobs and NVIDIA’s last 15 days [04:10] - Appl...

We’re coming off of another good market month. Sentiment is bullish, and we’ll look into why that’s the case. We’ll then discuss how/why we should hedge that optimism with historical data and end with updates on the electric vehicle and bond markets. Key Takeaways [00:16] - The risk appetite has returned [04:52] - Why are the vibes the way they are right now? [09:09] - Hedging optimism [13:15] - M...

NVIDIA is the story of the week. We’ll look at their rising market cap and why price matters more than hype when it comes to new hot sectors like AI. We’ll also discuss practical AI uses, from big banks to our personal relationships. We end with our suggested advice on how to handle thinking about peaks vs. cliffs during market highs.  Key Takeaways [00:16] - AI is becoming the new hot topic [03:5...

During the Mardi Gras break, we welcome on Seth Johnson, a partner at 388 Ventures. With his wealth of real estate experience and insight, he’ll tell us about the impact of COVID and how it got us to this point. We’ll discuss the challenges that developers and project sponsors are facing, the emergence of a new, alternative lending market, and the banks’ current decision tree. Seth also gives his...

Happy early Mardi Gras from New Orleans! Before we head into a weekend of floats and football, we question why we’re hearing so many economic bears coming out of the woodwork. In that vein, we’ll look at potential bearish indicators like tech bubble rumblings and the country’s unsustainable fiscal path. We’ll then examine tech’s impact on the economy and society as a whole, why some are calling th...

Thanks for joining us each week for 100 episodes of the Lagniappe Podcast. We’ll continue our conversation from last week about small and large caps and what it means to have such a large gap between them. We’ll then look back on a great January and how it falls in line historically, check in on bond market predictions, and track the normalization of the economy after rapid growth and rate hikes....

Coming off the heels of hitting a new high for the S&P 500, we’ll talk about how, why, and what it means that we are in a bull market. We’ll then examine the latest on earnings, inflation, and the effect of a massive cash surplus. With some football talk mixed in, we finish by taking a broader perspective to look back on lessons we learned in a post-COVID cycle.  Key Takeaways [00:18] - China stum...

2024’s markets have gotten off to a choppy start, but that hasn’t stopped economists from calling this a period of vibespansion. We’ll look into the merits of that notion as well as how fixed debt is working to the advantage of home and small business owners. We’ll also take a look at the economic impact of China invading Taiwan and discuss the red flags of investing in countries with autocratic r...

Heading into a big NFL weekend, we look at the wins and losses and what we learned from the market in 2023. We also chat about conflicting inflation data leading to renewed calls for recession. We then finish with a blitz of news including Boeing, Bill Gates, and Zuckerberg’s cows.  Key Takeaways [00:17] - Why the disciplined investor is paid off in the long run [05:18] - Conflicting inflation/CPI...

Happy New Year from Stokes Family Office. We kick off the new year by looking at what historically happens after a good market year and pose the question, are we better off simply expecting positive performance? We’ll then dive into incredibly interesting demographic data, look at the correlation of stocks and bonds, and examine the Ozempic effect on the markets. Key Takeaways [01:03] - Historical...

As we head into Christmas, we’ll discuss whether or not we’ve already seen our Santa Claus rally. We’ll then dive into core CPE numbers and take our weekly look at inflation. Finally, we’ll review the biggest narratives of 2023 before looking ahead to what we hope will be a big 2024 as we explain our pragmatic stance on being long-term bullish. Key Takeaways [02:05] - Have we already had our Santa...

There’s a narrative brewing that the market has beaten inflation/a recession, but we’ll look into why the game is not over yet. We’ll also examine the coiled spring of small and mid-caps, how this bear market stacks up historically, and the wild ride we’ve been on over the past 6 weeks. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Is the market declaring that the interest rate hiking cycle is over? [04:45] - The infla...